Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 17 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 3 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 2.9% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 21.96bn (US$3.1bn). There are 22 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade.
Impact on the stocks has increased as creations in ETFs linked to the CSI 300 Index continue. That flow will reverse from the deletions in the next few months.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

<ul>
<li>There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.</li>
</ul>


There could be 18 changes at the December rebalance with the Industrials sector gaining 3 index spots and the Information Technology sector losing 5 spots.
We estimate one-way turnover of 3.3% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 22.07bn (US$3bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes. There were ETF inflows last week amid a short selling crackdown as the Third Plenum kicks off.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Glodon Company Limited A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Glodon announced FY23 results: total revenue declined by 16% YoY to RMB1.78bn in 4Q23, 10% below consensus estimate mainly due to the soft construction market; the company recorded net loss of RMB146mn in 4Q23, deteriorating from net income of RMB328mn in 4Q22, primarily attributable to the operating deleverage.</li><li>FY23 total revenue was largely flat YoY at RMB6.56bn, while net income was down by 88% YoY to RMB116mn.</li><li>Looking ahead to FY24, we expect top-line growth will remain under pressure as the overall construction market remains challenging and the decline in new contracts signed in FY23 will weigh on revenue recognition in FY24. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Glodon announced FY23 results: total revenue declined by 16% YoY to RMB1.78bn in 4Q23, 10% below consensus estimate mainly due to the soft construction market; the company recorded net loss of RMB146mn in 4Q23, deteriorating from net income of RMB328mn in 4Q22, primarily attributable to the operating deleverage.FY23 total revenue was largely flat YoY at RMB6.56bn, while net income was down by 88% YoY to RMB116mn.Looking ahead to FY24, we expect top-line growth will remain under pressure as the overall construction market remains challenging and the decline in new contracts signed in FY23 will weigh on revenue recognition in FY24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Glodon (002410 CH) - Focus on Quality Growth in FY24E

<ul><li>Glodon announced 2Q23 results: total revenue increased by 7.2% YoY to RMB1.76bn in 2Q23, below consensus estimate of RMB2.00bn.</li><li>Net profit was RMB129.2mn in 2Q23, down 55% YoY, mainly due to the soft housing construction market and Glodon’s adjustment to its organizational structure.</li><li>Total revenue/net profit was +10.7/-37.5% YoY in 1H23. In view of the long-lasting property sector headwind, the company revised down the full-year revenue/net profit growth guidance, and now expects total revenue/net profit to deliver teens percentage/positive YoY growth in FY23 (previous: +30/30% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Glodon announced 2Q23 results: total revenue increased by 7.2% YoY to RMB1.76bn in 2Q23, below consensus estimate of RMB2.00bn.Net profit was RMB129.2mn in 2Q23, down 55% YoY, mainly due to the soft housing construction market and Glodon’s adjustment to its organizational structure.Total revenue/net profit was +10.7/-37.5% YoY in 1H23. In view of the long-lasting property sector headwind, the company revised down the full-year revenue/net profit growth guidance, and now expects total revenue/net profit to deliver teens percentage/positive YoY growth in FY23 (previous: +30/30% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Glodon (002410 CH) – 1H23 Miss Amid Property Sector Headwind

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Forty to sixty percent of the world’s carbon emission takes place in buildings. Energy efficiency job is the single largest component that balances the job loss</li>
<li>In traditional energy and job gain in renewable energy. China is materially behind the US in energy efficiency; We believe inclusion of energy efficiency in the upcoming stimulus package </li>
<li>Will be a sound choice to boost employment and GDP, and our listed companies in the new energy sector shall benefit from the trend.</li>
</ul>


Forty to sixty percent of the world’s carbon emission takes place in buildings. Energy efficiency job is the single largest component that balances the job loss
In traditional energy and job gain in renewable energy. China is materially behind the US in energy efficiency; We believe inclusion of energy efficiency in the upcoming stimulus package 
Will be a sound choice to boost employment and GDP, and our listed companies in the new energy sector shall benefit from the trend.


[Blue Lotus Macro]: A Job-Creating Stimulus that Also Saves the Real Estate

China

Glodon Company Limited develops application softwares for basic construction industry. The Company's products include construction engineering cost management software and project cost management software. The Company also provides related training and consulting services.

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Glodon Company Limited A (002410 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Round-Trip Trade Tops US$6bn as ETF Creations Soar

There could be 17 changes in Dec resulting in a round-trip trade of over US$6bn. 22 stocks have over 3x ADV to trade. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 18 Changes in Dec; Third Plenum; ETF Inflows; Short Sell Crackdown

There could be 18 changes in December. The adds have outperformed the deletes but near-term performance has been meh. There were ETF inflows last...

Brian Freitas

Glodon (002410 CH) - Focus on Quality Growth in FY24E

Glodon announced FY23 results: total revenue declined by 16% YoY to RMB1.78bn in 4Q23, 10% below consensus estimate mainly due to the soft...

CMB International

Glodon (002410 CH) – 1H23 Miss Amid Property Sector Headwind

Glodon announced 2Q23 results: total revenue increased by 7.2% YoY to RMB1.76bn in 2Q23, below consensus estimate of RMB2.00bn.

CMB International

[Blue Lotus Macro]: A Job-Creating Stimulus that Also Saves the Real Estate

We believe inclusion of energy efficiency in the upcoming stimulus package will be a sound choice to boost employment and GDP, listed companies in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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