Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were index review announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and STAR100 Index later in the week.</li>
<li>Another week of outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK)</a> as inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> continue.</li>
</ul>


There were index review announcements for the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the STAR50 INDEX and STAR100 Index later in the week.
Another week of outflows for Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK) as inflows to iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) continue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the last close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmr-airports-infrastructure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:306:1" rel="noopener">GMR Airports Infrastructure (GMRI IN)</a> has a market cap of US$6.23bn and a free float market cap of US$2.48bn.</li>
<li>Passive global trackers are estimated to need to buy 223.33m shares (US$230m; 4.4x ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmr-airports-infrastructure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:306:1" rel="noopener">GMR Airports Infrastructure (GMRI IN)</a> at the close on 29 February.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gqg-partners-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34569:1" rel="noopener">GQG Partners (GQG AU)</a> has been a big buyer since December and holds 4.98% of the company. The stock could run up for a few more weeks.</li>
</ul>


At the last close, GMR Airports Infrastructure (GMRI IN) has a market cap of US$6.23bn and a free float market cap of US$2.48bn.
Passive global trackers are estimated to need to buy 223.33m shares (US$230m; 4.4x ADV) of GMR Airports Infrastructure (GMRI IN) at the close on 29 February.

GQG Partners (GQG AU) has been a big buyer since December and holds 4.98% of the company. The stock could run up for a few more weeks.


GMR Airports Infra (GMRI IN): Flying High

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmr-airports-infrastructure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:306:1" rel="noopener">GMR Airports Infrastructure (GMRI IN)</a> saw pressure on its scrip after its results, that witnessed losses widening to INR-8.4 bn in F23 from INR -7.5 bn in F22 (continuing operations).</li>
<li>The losses have further dented the balance sheet, that already looked fragile over a number of years.</li>
<li>The company also faces cash generation problems on the back of debt burden, apart from severe contingent liabilities, that could further hamper the net-worth. Investors should remain cautious.</li>
</ul>



GMR Airports Infrastructure (GMRI IN) saw pressure on its scrip after its results, that witnessed losses widening to INR-8.4 bn in F23 from INR -7.5 bn in F22 (continuing operations).
The losses have further dented the balance sheet, that already looked fragile over a number of years.
The company also faces cash generation problems on the back of debt burden, apart from severe contingent liabilities, that could further hamper the net-worth. Investors should remain cautious.


GMR Airports Infrastructure- Still a Work In Progress

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>GMR Infrastructure (GMRI) is one of the largest Indian airport developers and operators, with a large portfolio of assets across the energy, transport and urban infra sectors. It operates two of India’s largest airports – Delhi and Hyderabad – which handled 25-28% of all-India passenger traffic in the past decade. The airline sector is witnessing speedy recovery from the covid impact.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

GMR Infrastructure (GMRI) is one of the largest Indian airport developers and operators, with a large portfolio of assets across the energy, transport and urban infra sectors. It operates two of India’s largest airports – Delhi and Hyderabad – which handled 25-28% of all-India passenger traffic in the past decade. The airline sector is witnessing speedy recovery from the covid impact.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Airports to drive value; initiate with a HOLD

India

GMR Airports Limited operates as a airport platform company. The Company engages in development, operation, and maintenance of airports, as well as provides aviation and integrated security solutions in retail, aero services, and real estates. GMR Airports serves customers worldwide.

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GMR Airports (GMRAIRPO IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

GMR Airports Infra (GMRI IN): Flying High

Passive trackers will need to buy a lot of GMR Airport Infra later this month. GQG has been a big buyer and holds nearly 5% of shares out. The...

Brian Freitas

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

GMR Airports Infrastructure- Still a Work In Progress

The losses have further dented the balance sheet, that already looked fragile over a number of years. The company also faces cash generation...

Nitin Mangal

Airports to drive value; initiate with a HOLD

GMR Infrastructure (GMRI) is one of the largest Indian airport developers and operators, with a large portfolio of assets across the energy,...

ICICI Securities Limited

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