India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

Godfrey Phillips India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Godfrey Phillips delivered 23% gross sales growth and 22% profit growth in H1 FY26, then faced Sweeping Excise and GST Overhaul that led the stock down 40% from 52-Week high</li>
<li>Tax shock is biggest structural reset for Indian tobacco. How Godfrey Phillips with 14% market share and near-zero debt navigates pricing, volume and illicit trade will define next earnings cycle</li>
<li>The company's balance sheet is one of the cleanest in the sector, but margin recovery depends on volume holding up through aggressive price hikes. Watch Q4 FY26 results closely.</li>
</ul>


Godfrey Phillips delivered 23% gross sales growth and 22% profit growth in H1 FY26, then faced Sweeping Excise and GST Overhaul that led the stock down 40% from 52-Week high
Tax shock is biggest structural reset for Indian tobacco. How Godfrey Phillips with 14% market share and near-zero debt navigates pricing, volume and illicit trade will define next earnings cycle
The company's balance sheet is one of the cleanest in the sector, but margin recovery depends on volume holding up through aggressive price hikes. Watch Q4 FY26 results closely.


Godfrey Phillips: Strong Numbers and Steeper Taxes

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index (TWSE INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.</li>
<li>We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.</li>
<li>Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.</li>
</ul>


Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan's TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe's EURO STOXX 50.
We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.


Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The COVID-19 crisis in India is surmounting as the number of tests and positive cases each day are reaching new highs while the peak has not reached yet, as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/covid-19-how-does-india-fare-currently" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38227" rel="noopener">COVID-19: How Does India Fare Currently?</a> Unsurprisingly, the government has extended the nation-wide lockdown to a further 19 days till May 3rd. While the extension was anticipated by many, the government has also decided to free up some economic activities post 20th April, subject to certain criteria (the guideline is embedded in the insight). Post the extension announcement, the government had segregated 700+ districts into hotspots, non-hotspots and green zones; it is green zones are where certain economic activities will resume on 20th April. In this insight, we try to decipher the possible beneficiaries arising from this 'free-up'

The COVID-19 crisis in India is surmounting as the number of tests and positive cases each day are reaching new highs while the peak has not reached yet, as discussed in COVID-19: How Does India Fare Currently? Unsurprisingly, the government has extended the nation-wide lockdown to a further 19 days till May 3rd. While the extension was anticipated by many, the government has also decided to free up some economic activities post 20th April, subject to certain criteria (the guideline is embedded in the insight). Post the extension announcement, the government had segregated 700+ districts into hotspots, non-hotspots and green zones; it is green zones are where certain economic activities will resume on 20th April. In this insight, we try to decipher the possible beneficiaries arising from this 'free-up'

COVID-19 : Intermediate Respite for Some Businesses

India focused: IPO, special situations, Stylus Holdings

Himanshu Dugar

India focused: IPO, special situations

Stylus Holdings

Stylus Holdings is a buy-side equity research firm. We offer bottom-up investment ideas as well as provide on demand equity research and portfolio tracking. 
At Stylus, our focus is to identify market dislocations that can generate 20+% IRR with a reasonable margin of safety. As part of our research process, we do a deep dive into the fundamentals of the company, evaluate their competitive positioning and assess their valuation.
Our investment team is led by Himanshu Dugar. Himanshu is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA charter holder. He has 10+ years of active experience in the stock market with stints at CRISIL Research, a S&P Global copmany and Miras Investments, a single family office based in Dubai.

Equity Research Firm

<ul>
<li>ITC's share prices collapsed on 1st-Jan following a larger-than-expected indirect tax hike on Cigarettes in India. The changes translate to a 20-50% increase in MRP, potentially aiding illicit Cigarette trade.</li>
<li>We present data on how ITC's Cigarette business has performed well despite regular tax hikes and how steep hikes followed by a stable taxation envrionment benefits in the long term.</li>
<li>At CMP, stock is attractive at 20x Cigarette profits alone (peers trade at 25x), offering FMCG and agri business (worth 40/share) + 50k crores in cash/listed investments (40/share) as buffer.</li>
</ul>


ITC's share prices collapsed on 1st-Jan following a larger-than-expected indirect tax hike on Cigarettes in India. The changes translate to a 20-50% increase in MRP, potentially aiding illicit Cigarette trade.
We present data on how ITC's Cigarette business has performed well despite regular tax hikes and how steep hikes followed by a stable taxation envrionment benefits in the long term.
At CMP, stock is attractive at 20x Cigarette profits alone (peers trade at 25x), offering FMCG and agri business (worth 40/share) + 50k crores in cash/listed investments (40/share) as buffer.


ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

India

Godfrey Phillips India Limited manufactures and distributes cigarettes, smoking tobacco and cigars.  The Group's brands include Black & White Kingsize Filter, Four Square Kingsize Filter, Cavanders Navy Cut Regular, Red & White, Anand and Leader.  The Company also manufactures Virgin Gold and Philip's Gold cigarette tobacco.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Godfrey Phillips India (GP IN)

Godfrey Phillips: Strong Numbers and Steeper Taxes

Godfrey Phillips sees strong growth in H1 FY26, but faces 40% stock drop due to tax overhaul. Clean balance sheet and market share key to...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

COVID-19 : Intermediate Respite for Some Businesses

The COVID-19 crisis in India is surmounting as the number of tests and positive cases each day are reaching new highs while the peak has not...

Nitin Mangal

ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...

Himanshu Dugar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Godfrey Phillips: Strong Numbers and Steeper Taxes

​Godfrey Phillips sees strong growth in H1 FY26, but faces 40% stock drop due to tax overhaul. Clean balance sheet and market share key to...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead $ACWI $SPX; Stick With Defensive Sectors; Downgrading Taiwan $EWT $TSM to Market Weight; Global Discretionary vs. Staples...

Vermilion Research

COVID-19 : Intermediate Respite for Some Businesses

The COVID-19 crisis in India is surmounting as the number of tests and positive cases each day are reaching new highs while the peak has not...

Nitin Mangal

ITC - Is It Time for Contrarian Investors to Enter?

​ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...

Himanshu Dugar

Godfrey Phillips sees strong growth in H1 FY26, but faces 40% stock drop due to tax overhaul. Clean balance sheet and market share key to...

ITC's share prices plummeted after a significant tax hike on cigarettes in Jan. Historically, business has been resilient despite hikes + we feel...