External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

Godrej Consumer Products / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GCPL announced the acquisition of Raymond’s FMCG portfolio (Park Avenue and KamaSutra) on a slump sale basis for a total gross consideration of INR 28.3bn (EV/revenue 4.6x and EV/EBITDA ~55x of FY23E)</li><li>The acquisition helps improve GCPL’s India TAM and diversify its offerings into categories with low penetration and multi-year high-growth opportunities</li><li>Besides, the inefficient cost structure of the entity in its present form presents an opportunity to expand the margin from single-digits to mid-teens (management is guiding early-mid-twenties by FY25).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GCPL announced the acquisition of Raymond’s FMCG portfolio (Park Avenue and KamaSutra) on a slump sale basis for a total gross consideration of INR 28.3bn (EV/revenue 4.6x and EV/EBITDA ~55x of FY23E)The acquisition helps improve GCPL’s India TAM and diversify its offerings into categories with low penetration and multi-year high-growth opportunitiesBesides, the inefficient cost structure of the entity in its present form presents an opportunity to expand the margin from single-digits to mid-teens (management is guiding early-mid-twenties by FY25).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Godrej Consumers - Acquisition to Be Earnings Dilutive

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Demand environment continues to remain challenging: FMCG demand sentiment has stayed consistent during the quarter, largely mirroring trends seen in Q3FY24</li><li>While urban markets continue to outgrow rural markets, price rollbacks on softening commodity inflation have aided the narrowing of the gap</li><li>Nonetheless, we expect a gradual recovery in CY2024, led by (1) moderating inflation, (2) government spending, (3) a positive outlook for rabi crop harvest, (4) conducive consumer pricing across categories, and (5) expectation of normal monsoon</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand environment continues to remain challenging: FMCG demand sentiment has stayed consistent during the quarter, largely mirroring trends seen in Q3FY24While urban markets continue to outgrow rural markets, price rollbacks on softening commodity inflation have aided the narrowing of the gapNonetheless, we expect a gradual recovery in CY2024, led by (1) moderating inflation, (2) government spending, (3) a positive outlook for rabi crop harvest, (4) conducive consumer pricing across categories, and (5) expectation of normal monsoonContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG, Alco Bev & QSR (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Challenging demand environment

FMCG/Alco Bev & QSR - Challenging Demand Environment

<ul><li>Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 4/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 4/9% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY24 (vs 4/9% in Q2FY24 and 8/9% in Q3FY23)</li><li>Mirroring the trends seen in Q2FY24, the demand has remained stable during the quarter</li><li>Recovery in rural markets remained below expectations while urban demand was steady</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 4/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 4/9% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q3FY24 (vs 4/9% in Q2FY24 and 8/9% in Q3FY23)Mirroring the trends seen in Q2FY24, the demand has remained stable during the quarterRecovery in rural markets remained below expectations while urban demand was steadyContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Uninspiring demand recovery

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.</li>
</ul>


There are 18 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 28 December. We had forecast all the index changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 57.7% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 21.75bn (US$261m). 8 stocks have over 1x ADV to trade; 21 stocks have atleast 0.5x ADV to trade.
The adds have continued to outperform the deletes and the index and there could be further outperformance heading into year-end and buying from passive trackers.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

India

Godrej Consumer Products Limited manufactures personal care, hair care, household care and fabric care products. The Company's products include toilet soaps, cosmetics, shaving creams, talcum powder, household cleaners and fabric detergents.

Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL IN)

Godrej Consumers - Acquisition to Be Earnings Dilutive

GCPL announced the acquisition of Raymond’s FMCG portfolio (Park Avenue and KamaSutra) on a slump sale basis for a total gross consideration of INR...

HDFC Securities

FMCG, Alco Bev & QSR (Q4FY24 Results Preview): Challenging demand environment

Demand environment continues to remain challenging: FMCG demand sentiment has stayed consistent during the quarter, largely mirroring trends seen...

HDFC Securities

FMCG/Alco Bev & QSR - Challenging Demand Environment

Demand environment continues to remain challenging: FMCG demand sentiment has stayed consistent during the quarter, largely mirroring trends seen...

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev (Q3FY24 Results Preview): Uninspiring demand recovery

Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 4/9% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 4/9% growth YoY/four-year...

HDFC Securities

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: 18 Changes a Side, 58% Turnover, Momentum Intact

The adds and deletes have performed in line since announcement of the changes a little over a week ago. With 10 trading days to implementation,...

Brian Freitas