Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mynt, the digital payments and consumer finance platform behind GCash, started marketing for its PSE listing. MS, JPM, and UBS are the joint global coordinators.</li>
<li>Our previous notes covered the company's business, industry backdrop, financials and pre-IPO investor backing.</li>
<li>In this note we compare the company with five listed regional digital finance peers on financials, operating data and valuation.</li>
</ul>


Mynt, the digital payments and consumer finance platform behind GCash, started marketing for its PSE listing. MS, JPM, and UBS are the joint global coordinators.
Our previous notes covered the company's business, industry backdrop, financials and pre-IPO investor backing.
In this note we compare the company with five listed regional digital finance peers on financials, operating data and valuation.


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. </li>
<li>Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.</li>
<li>Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


Indonesia has been the recipient of significant investment flows for foreign investors with more of a "risk on" environment with a large portion flowing into Indonesian banks. 
Indonesia stacks up from an investment perspective with a stable political environment, solid GDP growth of around 5% YoY, rising flows of FDI, and a more stable IDR.
Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top picks: Banks, property, consumer, and selective elsewhere. 


Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

<ul>
<li>CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a new thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian digital themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.</li>
<li>This week we dive deeper into the reasoning behind the sale of Tokopedia's sale of a 75% stake to TikTok, and what it means for GoTo going forward.</li>
<li>We also look at the recent troubles around the leading Indonesian P2P marketplace Investree, which range from the resignation of its CEO to rapidly rising bad debts.</li>
</ul>


CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a new thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian digital themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.
This week we dive deeper into the reasoning behind the sale of Tokopedia's sale of a 75% stake to TikTok, and what it means for GoTo going forward.
We also look at the recent troubles around the leading Indonesian P2P marketplace Investree, which range from the resignation of its CEO to rapidly rising bad debts.


CrossASEAN Ground Zero - GoTo's Big Plan and Investree's Troubles

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Press reports suggest that a merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> is back on the table, which is ironic given the progress of both companies towards profitability. </li>
<li>Any merger may encounter anti-trust issues in Indonesia, with some fallout for drivers and potentially merchants, which may encounter resistance from the government and even potential demonstrations but not insurmountable.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> merger could move the dial towards much higher profitability.</li>
</ul>


Press reports suggest that a merger between GoTo Gojek Tokopedia and Grab is back on the table, which is ironic given the progress of both companies towards profitability. 
Any merger may encounter anti-trust issues in Indonesia, with some fallout for drivers and potentially merchants, which may encounter resistance from the government and even potential demonstrations but not insurmountable.

Grab should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a GoTo merger could move the dial towards much higher profitability.


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> has seen a sharp share price rebound recently with speculation over a tie up with Temu, which appears ill-founded, with the only newsflow being a Director resigning.</li>
<li>The company swung back into a slight negative adjusted EBITDA in 2Q2024, mainly due to the seasonal impact of Lebaran on its O2O business and increased competition in virtual products.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak</a> remains a differentiated player in Indonesian e-commerce with a focus on serving MSMEs through its marketplace, with increasing take rates ahead. Dealing with excess cash is a potential catalyst. </li>
</ul>



Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) has seen a sharp share price rebound recently with speculation over a tie up with Temu, which appears ill-founded, with the only newsflow being a Director resigning.
The company swung back into a slight negative adjusted EBITDA in 2Q2024, mainly due to the seasonal impact of Lebaran on its O2O business and increased competition in virtual products.

Bukalapak remains a differentiated player in Indonesian e-commerce with a focus on serving MSMEs through its marketplace, with increasing take rates ahead. Dealing with excess cash is a potential catalyst. 


Indonesia

GoTo is an Indonesian technology company that operates the largest digital ecosystem in the country. It provides integrated services including on-demand mobility (Gojek), e-commerce (Tokopedia), payments, and financial technology. The company is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, and was formed in 2021 through the merger of Gojek and Tokopedia.

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GoTo (GOTO IJ)

Mynt (GCash) Pre-IPO: Peer Comparison

Mynt started to market its PSE listing. In this note, we compare the company with its listed peers on operating data, financials and valuation, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Indonesia Strategy - Caught in a Perfect Updraft?

Despite the JCI knocking on all-time highs, valuations continue to look attractive with prospects of a better 2H2024 and lower interest rates. Top...

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN Ground Zero - GoTo's Big Plan and Investree's Troubles

This week we dive deeper into the reasoning behind the sale of Tokopedia's sale of 75% stale to TikTok, and what it means for GoTo going forward.

Angus Mackintosh

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?

Grab should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a GoTo merger could move the dial towards...

Angus Mackintosh

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Changes Afoot?

Bukalapak remains a differentiated player in Indonesian e-commerce with a focus on serving MSMEs through its marketplace and increasing take rates...

Angus Mackintosh

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