ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia</a> together with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding</a> announced a strategic partnership that locks the latter in for the next 5-years, with GOTO committing to utilising Alibaba Cloud.</li>
<li>This move lifts a significant share price overhang and should provide GOTO with both cost benefits and AI capabilities cementing and aligning the interests of the two companies. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a> continues to move the needle on its progress towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 4Q2024 led by product-led initiatives. </li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia together with Alibaba Group Holding announced a strategic partnership that locks the latter in for the next 5-years, with GOTO committing to utilising Alibaba Cloud.
This move lifts a significant share price overhang and should provide GOTO with both cost benefits and AI capabilities cementing and aligning the interests of the two companies. 

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) continues to move the needle on its progress towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven by 4Q2024 led by product-led initiatives. 


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia(GOTO IJ) - Lifting Clouds

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>"'s 2Q2024 reflected an ongoing focus on growth as the company invested in both its On Demand Services and its Fintech segments driven by its product-led initiatives.</li>
<li>The company's growth was driven by the mass market, subscription products, and premium offerings such as express deliveries, which helped to boost both frequency and retention on the platform. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> will continue to benefit from the service fee from Tokopedia, which can be used to drive its core ODS and Fintech businesses. The stock overhang is a temporary drag.</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ)"'s 2Q2024 reflected an ongoing focus on growth as the company invested in both its On Demand Services and its Fintech segments driven by its product-led initiatives.
The company's growth was driven by the mass market, subscription products, and premium offerings such as express deliveries, which helped to boost both frequency and retention on the platform. 

GoTo will continue to benefit from the service fee from Tokopedia, which can be used to drive its core ODS and Fintech businesses. The stock overhang is a temporary drag.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Product-Led Initiatives Driving Growth and Profitability

<ul>
<li>Press reports suggest that a merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> is back on the table, which is ironic given the progress of both companies towards profitability. </li>
<li>Any merger may encounter anti-trust issues in Indonesia, with some fallout for drivers and potentially merchants, which may encounter resistance from the government and even potential demonstrations but not insurmountable.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> merger could move the dial towards much higher profitability.</li>
</ul>


Press reports suggest that a merger between GoTo Gojek Tokopedia and Grab is back on the table, which is ironic given the progress of both companies towards profitability. 
Any merger may encounter anti-trust issues in Indonesia, with some fallout for drivers and potentially merchants, which may encounter resistance from the government and even potential demonstrations but not insurmountable.

Grab should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a GoTo merger could move the dial towards much higher profitability.


Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. </li>
<li>GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. </li>
<li>Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.</li>
</ul>


The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new government in place. 
GDP growth forecasts are more optimistic for 2025 and government stimulus should help to drive higher consumption, with FDI driven by more value-added investments in the EV-related projects. 
Increasing digitalisation of the economy and greater use of AI will drive profitability and data centre growth. Interest rates are expected to fall -50-100bps which should also be supportive.


CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> has seen a sharp share price rebound recently with speculation over a tie up with Temu, which appears ill-founded, with the only newsflow being a Director resigning.</li>
<li>The company swung back into a slight negative adjusted EBITDA in 2Q2024, mainly due to the seasonal impact of Lebaran on its O2O business and increased competition in virtual products.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak</a> remains a differentiated player in Indonesian e-commerce with a focus on serving MSMEs through its marketplace, with increasing take rates ahead. Dealing with excess cash is a potential catalyst. </li>
</ul>



Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) has seen a sharp share price rebound recently with speculation over a tie up with Temu, which appears ill-founded, with the only newsflow being a Director resigning.
The company swung back into a slight negative adjusted EBITDA in 2Q2024, mainly due to the seasonal impact of Lebaran on its O2O business and increased competition in virtual products.

Bukalapak remains a differentiated player in Indonesian e-commerce with a focus on serving MSMEs through its marketplace, with increasing take rates ahead. Dealing with excess cash is a potential catalyst. 


Indonesia

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia(GOTO IJ) - Lifting Clouds

Alibaba's agreement to lock up its GOTO stake for 5 years in exchange for using Alibaba Cloud services lifts a share price overhang, aligning...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Product-Led Initiatives Driving Growth and Profitability

GoTo (GOTO IJ)"'s 2Q2024 reflected an ongoing focus on growth as the company invested in both its On Demand Services and its Fintech segments...

Angus Mackintosh

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - GoTo Merger Rears Its Head?

Grab should book a net profit in 2025 plus higher growth, as its barbell strategy gains traction, but a GoTo merger could move the dial towards...

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN Indonesia Strategy - Parting Clouds

The Indonesian stock market was down 2% over the last year despite a flurry of inflows in the summer but this year looks interesting with a new...

Angus Mackintosh

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - Changes Afoot?

Bukalapak remains a differentiated player in Indonesian e-commerce with a focus on serving MSMEs through its marketplace and increasing take rates...

Angus Mackintosh

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