Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener"></a>GoTo reported 3Q2023 results on Monday. Gross revenues increased 1.4% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adj. EBITDA losses further narrowed down to IDR1.84trn vs IDR3.71trn in 3Q2022.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)</a> continues to see huge reduction in losses but growth rates have fallen further with cutdown on incentives and promotional spending.</li>
<li>It seems that GoTo has stopped exploring growth opportunities in pursuit of profits, however, this may not be sustainable in the long-term with falling growth rates.</li>
</ul>



GoTo reported 3Q2023 results on Monday. Gross revenues increased 1.4% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adj. EBITDA losses further narrowed down to IDR1.84trn vs IDR3.71trn in 3Q2022.

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) continues to see huge reduction in losses but growth rates have fallen further with cutdown on incentives and promotional spending.
It seems that GoTo has stopped exploring growth opportunities in pursuit of profits, however, this may not be sustainable in the long-term with falling growth rates.


ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industri-jamu-dan-farmasi-sido-muncul-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6033:1" rel="noopener">Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>There was also a macro insight on the Thai Economy and further insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumrungrad-hospital-pub-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:883:1" rel="noopener">Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB)</a>, and UNOAsia in the Philippines. </li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The Past week saw insights on GoTo, Grab Holdings (GRAB US),Sido Muncul (SIDO IJ), Matahari Department Store, BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and Astra International (ASII IJ).
There was also a macro insight on the Thai Economy and further insights on Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP), Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB), and UNOAsia in the Philippines. 
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo & Grab, BFIN's Rising, and Astra Intl's Oversold

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US)</a> recently posted another set of positive results, with another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. We conducted a follow-up call to explore the outlook for 2024. </li>
<li>The company announced both a US$500m Buyback and the potential for improving margins in its deliveries business plus several new initiatives to drive growth in 2024 and beyond. </li>
<li>Grab Financial continue to grow its loan book through lending to drivers and merchants, which should help to improve margins plus its high-margin advertising income is becoming increasingly important.</li>
</ul>



Grab Holdings (GRAB US) recently posted another set of positive results, with another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. We conducted a follow-up call to explore the outlook for 2024. 
The company announced both a US$500m Buyback and the potential for improving margins in its deliveries business plus several new initiatives to drive growth in 2024 and beyond. 
Grab Financial continue to grow its loan book through lending to drivers and merchants, which should help to improve margins plus its high-margin advertising income is becoming increasingly important.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> held a public expose at the IDX to update investors on latest developments including the Tokopedia sale but also to outline its key strategies for 2024. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> will start to receive the service fee from Tokopedia from 1st February despite that monitoring is ongoing by the Ministry of Trade although that is now 75% complete.</li>
<li>GoTo's focus will be on affordable products, some new premium offerings, and increasing higher take rate lending products through GoPay, with incoming fees from Tokopedia providing additional funding going forward.  </li>
</ul>



GoTo held a public expose at the IDX to update investors on latest developments including the Tokopedia sale but also to outline its key strategies for 2024. 

GoTo will start to receive the service fee from Tokopedia from 1st February despite that monitoring is ongoing by the Ministry of Trade although that is now 75% complete.
GoTo's focus will be on affordable products, some new premium offerings, and increasing higher take rate lending products through GoPay, with incoming fees from Tokopedia providing additional funding going forward.  


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International</a> booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing plus the strong performance from motorcycles. </li>
<li>Astra has continued to invest in growth areas of the Indonesian economy with investments last year in the EV battery ecosystem, increased exposure to healthcare, and investment in data centres.</li>
<li>Management flagged a potential 2H cyclical downturn but it is well-diversified enough to weather this. Valuations look attractive on 6.8x FY2024E PER and with a 6.6% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>



Astra International booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing plus the strong performance from motorcycles. 
Astra has continued to invest in growth areas of the Indonesian economy with investments last year in the EV battery ecosystem, increased exposure to healthcare, and investment in data centres.
Management flagged a potential 2H cyclical downturn but it is well-diversified enough to weather this. Valuations look attractive on 6.8x FY2024E PER and with a 6.6% dividend yield.


Astra International (ASII IJ) - Indonesia's Mirror Image

Indonesia

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

GoTo: In Pursuit of Profits…

GoTo will report 4Q and full-year 2023 results on 19th March 2023, this insight offers a glimpse on the company's 3Q2023 results which proves that...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - GoTo & Grab, BFIN's Rising, and Astra Intl's Oversold

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) - 2024 Set Up

Grab Holdings recently posted another set of positive results, with another quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. We conducted a follow-up call to...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo (GOTO IJ) - A Leaner Green Machine

GoTo's focus will be on affordable products, some new premium offerings, and increasing higher take rate lending products through GoPay, with...

Angus Mackintosh

Astra International (ASII IJ) - Indonesia's Mirror Image

Astra Intl booked record earnings for 2023 despite some softening of commodities, driven by strong performance from the auto division and financing...

Angus Mackintosh

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