Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Fund managers recently reduced their broad commodity position as well as energy position, compared to last month, according to the latest BofA survey.</li><li>Compared to the long-term z-score, fund managers are now heavily under-positioned in energy but close to neutral positioned in broad commodities.</li><li>In a recent note, Goldman Sachs explained their views about commodities if inflation would re-accelerate again - or in detail beat the market estimates and lead to an inflation upside surprise.</li></ul>

Fund managers recently reduced their broad commodity position as well as energy position, compared to last month, according to the latest BofA survey.Compared to the long-term z-score, fund managers are now heavily under-positioned in energy but close to neutral positioned in broad commodities.In a recent note, Goldman Sachs explained their views about commodities if inflation would re-accelerate again - or in detail beat the market estimates and lead to an inflation upside surprise.

<ul><li>Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish - aka, there is much room for speculators to reduce their bullish bets again.</li><li>The same can be said for gold and copper, but not for crude oil.</li><li>Once again, there seems to be less demand than people realize - especially from China.</li></ul>

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish - aka, there is much room for speculators to reduce their bullish bets again.The same can be said for gold and copper, but not for crude oil.Once again, there seems to be less demand than people realize - especially from China.

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls & Tailrisk Secular Inflation

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst, ChartSmarter

Douglas Busch

Independent Sell Side Equity Research Analyst

ChartSmarter

ChartSmarter is a service dedicated to the art of technical analysis.

On a daily basis we write up actionable ideas on a specific, major S&P sector on both the long and short side, in an easy yet thorough way. In the notes we give precise entries and exits, while looking to capture the "meat" of a trend.

Technical Analysis.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Gold MONTHLY chart records back-to-back bearish shooting stars in April and May.</li>
<li>Steel stocks possibly bottoming on incessant tariff talks creating opportunity.</li>
<li>Silver looks technically better than gold and likely to outshine precious metal into year-end.</li>
</ul>


Gold MONTHLY chart records back-to-back bearish shooting stars in April and May.
Steel stocks possibly bottoming on incessant tariff talks creating opportunity.
Silver looks technically better than gold and likely to outshine precious metal into year-end.


Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

<ul>
<li>The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.</li>
<li>False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.</li>
<li>IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.
False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.
IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.


Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

<ul><li>Unpredictable Corn Supply from South America The grain supply from South America, especially corn, is among the most unpredictable globally.</li><li>During the 2022-23 season, Argentina's corn production dropped by nearly 29% due to drought, but then surged by 26% in the 2023-24 season, influenced by the El Niño phenomenon.</li><li>Similarly, favorable weather conditions boosted Brazil's corn production by approximately 17% in 2022-23. However, in 2023-24, it declined by 16% due to varying weather patterns.</li></ul>

Unpredictable Corn Supply from South America The grain supply from South America, especially corn, is among the most unpredictable globally.During the 2022-23 season, Argentina's corn production dropped by nearly 29% due to drought, but then surged by 26% in the 2023-24 season, influenced by the El Niño phenomenon.Similarly, favorable weather conditions boosted Brazil's corn production by approximately 17% in 2022-23. However, in 2023-24, it declined by 16% due to varying weather patterns.

Why China loves Gold & a Beautiful Setup in Bitcoin

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

Price Gauge
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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

Fund Managers Reduce Commodities Again

Fund managers recently reduced their broad commodity position as well as energy position, compared to last month, according to the latest BofA survey.

The Commodity Report

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls & Tailrisk Secular Inflation

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish - aka, there is much room...

The Commodity Report

Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

Gold and Silver are likely to resume uptrends in the second half and with strength in other areas of materials the group is poised for a year-end...

Douglas Busch

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

Why China loves Gold & a Beautiful Setup in Bitcoin

Unpredictable Corn Supply from South America The grain supply from South America, especially corn, is among the most unpredictable globally.

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fund Managers Reduce Commodities Again

Fund managers recently reduced their broad commodity position as well as energy position, compared to last month, according to the latest BofA survey.

The Commodity Report

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls & Tailrisk Secular Inflation

Be Careful Precious Metals Bulls Another friendly reminder that positioning in copper remains super speculative bullish - aka, there is much room...

The Commodity Report

Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

​Gold and Silver are likely to resume uptrends in the second half and with strength in other areas of materials the group is poised for a year-end...

Douglas Busch

Weekly Compass - Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

​The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...

Vermilion Research

Why China loves Gold & a Beautiful Setup in Bitcoin

Unpredictable Corn Supply from South America The grain supply from South America, especially corn, is among the most unpredictable globally.

The Commodity Report

Gold and Silver are likely to resume uptrends in the second half and with strength in other areas of materials the group is poised for a year-end...

The US dollar and 10-year yield are showing signs of reversal, impacting equity markets and sector leadership. Technology remains strong while...