AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite a 307% surge in revenue, CoreWeave's extended six-year GPU depreciation schedule flatters its profitability while masking faster asset wear-down.</li>
<li>Despite ballooning into a $30 bn market cap, CoreWeave is weighed down by debt and lease obligations; Q2 interest expense exceeded operating profit, with CRWV netting $290 m in losses. </li>
<li>The Aug 15 IPO lock-up expiry triggered insider selling via $1 bn+ block trades, driving a 35% stock plunge and spiking short interest.</li>
</ul>


Despite a 307% surge in revenue, CoreWeave's extended six-year GPU depreciation schedule flatters its profitability while masking faster asset wear-down.
Despite ballooning into a $30 bn market cap, CoreWeave is weighed down by debt and lease obligations; Q2 interest expense exceeded operating profit, with CRWV netting $290 m in losses. 
The Aug 15 IPO lock-up expiry triggered insider selling via $1 bn+ block trades, driving a 35% stock plunge and spiking short interest.


CoreWeave’s Growth Meets Debt-Heavy Risk

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul><li>Goldman Sachs' GCI enters partnership with Asia Pacific Land in Japan for data center venture, expanding its reach in Asia.</li><li>CPPIB and MGRV collaborate on $350M venture in Korean rental housing, aiming to capture opportunities in the real estate market.</li><li>S&amp;P forecasts rebound in China's property market, driven by increase in secondary sales, indicating positive growth.</li></ul>

Goldman Sachs' GCI enters partnership with Asia Pacific Land in Japan for data center venture, expanding its reach in Asia.CPPIB and MGRV collaborate on $350M venture in Korean rental housing, aiming to capture opportunities in the real estate market.S&amp;P forecasts rebound in China's property market, driven by increase in secondary sales, indicating positive growth.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (24-Jan-2025): Goldman Sachs expands into Japan with data centre JV.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is strong and accelerating growth visible in HFD for US banks, even in the very core bucket of C&amp;I loans</li>
<li>Most recent full month shows 10.1% growth YoY for C&amp;I but Other Loans are up 27.3% Yoy in the same month, which is partly C&amp;I</li>
<li>Deposit distribution is improving, toward CASA, US banks can see better NIM, and net interest income, while economy appears from weekly bank data</li>
</ul>


There is strong and accelerating growth visible in HFD for US banks, even in the very core bucket of C&amp;I loans
Most recent full month shows 10.1% growth YoY for C&amp;I but Other Loans are up 27.3% Yoy in the same month, which is partly C&amp;I
Deposit distribution is improving, toward CASA, US banks can see better NIM, and net interest income, while economy appears from weekly bank data


US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ally-financial-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9683:1" rel="noopener">Ally Financial (ALLY US)</a> gave a poor view of now and the immediate future for credit costs within its primary loan book, used cars for subprime borrowers</li>
<li>There is often good read-through for mainstream banks and overall credit metrics, we saw this in Thailand before 1997 and in the US with Indymac, Countrywide, Household</li>
<li>If the Fed has a better view on granular data than one single finance company, we believe they will use this data when considering rate cut magnitude, <span><strong>next week</strong></span>
</li>
</ul>



Ally Financial (ALLY US) gave a poor view of now and the immediate future for credit costs within its primary loan book, used cars for subprime borrowers
There is often good read-through for mainstream banks and overall credit metrics, we saw this in Thailand before 1997 and in the US with Indymac, Countrywide, Household
If the Fed has a better view on granular data than one single finance company, we believe they will use this data when considering rate cut magnitude, next week



Ally Financial - Suggests Large Fed Cut, Credit Cost Guidance Worsening, Fringe Finco View Can Lead

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets give a view of underlying credit conditions in the US and they are not positive. Lending growth continues to decelerate and could reach negative growth soon. </li>
<li>Cash balances are rising and this suggests that US large banks are not comfortable with risk and also seeing less opportunities. Cash/loans ratio rising fastest in most recent week. </li>
<li>Large time deposits cost the most, and their growth rate is now 109% YoY in the most recent week, rising more than loans in each of the past 3 weeks.</li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets give a view of underlying credit conditions in the US and they are not positive. Lending growth continues to decelerate and could reach negative growth soon. 
Cash balances are rising and this suggests that US large banks are not comfortable with risk and also seeing less opportunities. Cash/loans ratio rising fastest in most recent week. 
Large time deposits cost the most, and their growth rate is now 109% YoY in the most recent week, rising more than loans in each of the past 3 weeks.


US Large Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

CoreWeave’s Growth Meets Debt-Heavy Risk

CoreWeave's revenue surge masks faster asset wear-down; debt and lease obligations weigh down $30 bn market cap; insider selling triggers 35%...

Mint Finance

Asia Real Estate Tracker (24-Jan-2025): Goldman Sachs expands into Japan with data centre JV.

Goldman Sachs, CPPIB, and S&P are all making significant investments in real estate ventures in Asia, indicating optimism in the region's property...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

HFD for US banks, shows very strong acceleration in C&I loans, and also other loans, which will also include C&I. Data suggests good economic...

Daniel Tabbush

Ally Financial - Suggests Large Fed Cut, Credit Cost Guidance Worsening, Fringe Finco View Can Lead

New disclosure, comments, guidance from Ally Financial show a major deterioration in credit metrics now, in coming months, which can mean a larger...

Daniel Tabbush

US Large Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY

US large banks are seeing loan growth decelerating, cash rising, large time deposits up 109% YoY in most recent week. Weekly B/S data suggests net...

Daniel Tabbush

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CoreWeave’s Growth Meets Debt-Heavy Risk

​CoreWeave's revenue surge masks faster asset wear-down; debt and lease obligations weigh down $30 bn market cap; insider selling triggers 35%...

Mint Finance

Asia Real Estate Tracker (24-Jan-2025): Goldman Sachs expands into Japan with data centre JV.

Goldman Sachs, CPPIB, and S&P are all making significant investments in real estate ventures in Asia, indicating optimism in the region's property...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

US Banks - C&I Loans +10.1% YoY in Apr From -2.9% in Jan, Strong Read-Through, Banks & Economy

HFD for US banks, shows very strong acceleration in C&I loans, and also other loans, which will also include C&I. Data suggests good economic...

Daniel Tabbush

Ally Financial - Suggests Large Fed Cut, Credit Cost Guidance Worsening, Fringe Finco View Can Lead

New disclosure, comments, guidance from Ally Financial show a major deterioration in credit metrics now, in coming months, which can mean a larger...

Daniel Tabbush

US Large Banks - Weekly Balance Sheets: Decelerating Loans, Rising Cash, Big Time Deposits +109% YoY

US large banks are seeing loan growth decelerating, cash rising, large time deposits up 109% YoY in most recent week. Weekly B/S data suggests net...

Daniel Tabbush

CoreWeave's revenue surge masks faster asset wear-down; debt and lease obligations weigh down $30 bn market cap; insider selling triggers 35%...