Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data</li>
<li>Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago</li>
<li>Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure</li>
</ul>


Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data
Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago
Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure


US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

Product Marketing Manager, Criat

Raghav Chandra Mathur

Product Marketing Manager

Next-Generation Credit Analytics Provider

Criat

Criat specializes in new-generation data-driven credit analytics. Leveraging our industry-leading DeepCredit analytical technologies, we produce daily-updated forward-looking credit assessment and valuation to help financial institutions stay ahead of risks. Coupled with use-case-driven applications, we extract insights, answer questions and enable smarter credit decisions.

<ul>
<li>US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the median credit risk faced by all US- banks.</li>
<li>The downward trend in the Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) for G-SIBs was largely driven by improvements in their equity performance, which has improved their financial position comparative to its peers.</li>
<li>As can be seen from Chart 1, although the G-SIB CCCI is trending lower since late September-2023, their aggregate credit profile is still close to the upper quartile credit risk of the US banking industry.</li>
</ul>


US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the median credit risk faced by all US- banks.
The downward trend in the Criat Credit Cycle Index (CCCI) for G-SIBs was largely driven by improvements in their equity performance, which has improved their financial position comparative to its peers.
As can be seen from Chart 1, although the G-SIB CCCI is trending lower since late September-2023, their aggregate credit profile is still close to the upper quartile credit risk of the US banking industry.


US G-SIBs Recover in Q4 2023, Facing Cloudy Outlook for 2024

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Outlook for interest rates in 2024 remains uncertain with market expectations diverging from Fed’s dot plot. Overall, rate cuts are expected in 2024.</li>
<li>Lower rate outlook for 2024 will drive higher deal-making which is likely to benefit Goldman. A slowdown in the US economy could hamper Goldman’s recovery.</li>
<li>Market metrics point to a positive sentiment around Goldman Sachs stock amongst analysts with summary analyst recommendation pointing to a Buy rating and average upside of 11%.</li>
</ul>


Outlook for interest rates in 2024 remains uncertain with market expectations diverging from Fed’s dot plot. Overall, rate cuts are expected in 2024.
Lower rate outlook for 2024 will drive higher deal-making which is likely to benefit Goldman. A slowdown in the US economy could hamper Goldman’s recovery.
Market metrics point to a positive sentiment around Goldman Sachs stock amongst analysts with summary analyst recommendation pointing to a Buy rating and average upside of 11%.


Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

<ul>
<li>Regional and small US banks face a greater risk to rising delinquencies on CRE loans given their higher exposure to CRE debt.</li>
<li>CRE loan delinquency rates and net charge-offs have accelerated since Q32022, mostly driven by the office space portfolio.</li>
<li>Within the CRE industry, property types such as hotels, offices and retail assets have the highest average rate caps, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Regional and small US banks face a greater risk to rising delinquencies on CRE loans given their higher exposure to CRE debt.
CRE loan delinquency rates and net charge-offs have accelerated since Q32022, mostly driven by the office space portfolio.
Within the CRE industry, property types such as hotels, offices and retail assets have the highest average rate caps, respectively.


Crisis in US CRE to Disproportionately Impact Regional Banks

<ul>
<li>Goldman reported FY and Q4 2023 earnings and revenue that topped analysts estimates. Goldman stands to benefit from higher deal-making and lower operating expenses in 2024.</li>
<li>FY2023 earnings and revenue were lower than FY2022 as Goldman faced large losses on its real estate portfolio and retreat from its consumer banking push.</li>
<li>Q4 earnings beat expectations by a huge margin but investment banking fees continued to lag; heading into a looser monetary environment in 2024, Goldman stands to outperform.</li>
</ul>


Goldman reported FY and Q4 2023 earnings and revenue that topped analysts estimates. Goldman stands to benefit from higher deal-making and lower operating expenses in 2024.
FY2023 earnings and revenue were lower than FY2022 as Goldman faced large losses on its real estate portfolio and retreat from its consumer banking push.
Q4 earnings beat expectations by a huge margin but investment banking fees continued to lag; heading into a looser monetary environment in 2024, Goldman stands to outperform.


Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 1)

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

High frequency data shows US banks with very weak C&I loans and total loans. Large time deposit growth remains high, only adding to core income...

Daniel Tabbush

US G-SIBs Recover in Q4 2023, Facing Cloudy Outlook for 2024

US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the...

Criat

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)

The uncertain outlook for interest rates in 2024 provides diverging outlook for Goldman stock's performance. In this part 2 paper, Mint Finance...

Mint Finance

Crisis in US CRE to Disproportionately Impact Regional Banks

Regional banks' asset quality is under greater threat given their high exposure to CRE loans. Hotels, offices, and retail assets have the highest...

Mint Finance

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 1)

Goldman Sachs surpasses analysts' estimates with strong FY and Q4 2023 earnings, benefiting from increased deal-making and reduced operating...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

High frequency data shows US banks with very weak C&I loans and total loans. Large time deposit growth remains high, only adding to core income...

Daniel Tabbush

US G-SIBs Recover in Q4 2023, Facing Cloudy Outlook for 2024

US-domiciled Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) have seen their credit risk profiles improve over the last quarter of 2023 towards the...

Criat

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 2)

The uncertain outlook for interest rates in 2024 provides diverging outlook for Goldman stock's performance. In this part 2 paper, Mint Finance...

Mint Finance

Crisis in US CRE to Disproportionately Impact Regional Banks

Regional banks' asset quality is under greater threat given their high exposure to CRE loans. Hotels, offices, and retail assets have the highest...

Mint Finance

Goldman Sachs Positioned to Outperform in 2024 with Strong Tailwinds (Part 1)

​Goldman Sachs surpasses analysts' estimates with strong FY and Q4 2023 earnings, benefiting from increased deal-making and reduced operating...

Mint Finance

Goldman Sachs surpasses analysts' estimates with strong FY and Q4 2023 earnings, benefiting from increased deal-making and reduced operating...