Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts.  What is clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE’s 20-year chart (below) reveals an in-progress trend reversal (which developed at a secular trendline) in favor of EM.In today’s report we review every global sector, highlighting actionable stocks within each.

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* Despite bottom-line improvement on a go-forward basis, deferred tax asset (DTA) write-downs are likely at major global financial companies  - beckoning for major 2018 EPS revisions.* Domestic institutions such as, Bank of America (BAC.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) stand out with large DTAs in the US.  * Of the international companies with US subsidiaries, the Swiss financials would post shocking results, while HSBC Holdings could have a 25% EPS adjustment, by our…

* Despite bottom-line improvement on a go-forward basis, deferred tax asset (DTA) write-downs are likely at major global financial companies  - beckoning for major 2018 EPS revisions.* Domestic institutions such as, Bank of America (BAC.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) stand out with large DTAs in the US.  * Of the international companies with US subsidiaries, the Swiss financials would post shocking results, while HSBC Holdings could have a 25% EPS adjustment, by our…

HSBC Holdings Plc – Likely Getting a Big Hickey From President Trump

* Margin finance not only remains a concern for the US share market, but the US housing market as well. * Charles Schwab is the latest example of pushing the envelope too far with their clients.As a follow-on to our note "Shanghai-ed by Western Brokers" dated September 2, 2017 where we called out US brokers/investment banks for aggressively lending on margin to high net worth (HNW)/retail investors, we decided to do a little mystery shopping of our own. This afternoon we visited a retail outlet…

* Margin finance not only remains a concern for the US share market, but the US housing market as well. * Charles Schwab is the latest example of pushing the envelope too far with their clients.As a follow-on to our note "Shanghai-ed by Western Brokers" dated September 2, 2017 where we called out US brokers/investment banks for aggressively lending on margin to high net worth (HNW)/retail investors, we decided to do a little mystery shopping of our own. This afternoon we visited a retail outlet…

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<ul><li>In a world where computer code is trusted more than human-run operations – especially amongst tech-savvy, urban Millennials – blockchain is a concept whose time has begun.</li><li>The blockchain protocol will come to be seen as a powerful antidote to the high fees charged by intermediaries such as banks, law firms and other “middlemen”.</li><li>Most blockchain projects are still in development mode.</li><li>But, over the next decade, DLT will hasten disruption in many sectors, including payments, lending, share trading, real estate, healthcare and infrastructure.</li><li>In this report, we look at the likely movers and shakers.</li></ul>

In a world where computer code is trusted more than human-run operations – especially amongst tech-savvy, urban Millennials – blockchain is a concept whose time has begun.The blockchain protocol will come to be seen as a powerful antidote to the high fees charged by intermediaries such as banks, law firms and other “middlemen”.Most blockchain projects are still in development mode.But, over the next decade, DLT will hasten disruption in many sectors, including payments, lending, share trading, real estate, healthcare and infrastructure.In this report, we look at the likely movers and shakers.

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

<h2>New challenges emerging for Renewable Power in India</h2>Some of the recent developments in this space indicate that the India renewable story is facing some new and unexpected head winds:<ol><li>
Increase in Solar PV prices - The price for Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) modules' which are imported from China has increased approximately 15% in last four months and the projects especially the ones which have quoted very aggressive tariffs may face commercial viability issues as a result. PV modules are primarily…</li></ol>

New challenges emerging for Renewable Power in IndiaSome of the recent developments in this space indicate that the India renewable story is facing some new and unexpected head winds:
Increase in Solar PV prices - The price for Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) modules' which are imported from China has increased approximately 15% in last four months and the projects especially the ones which have quoted very aggressive tariffs may face commercial viability issues as a result. PV modules are primarily…

Not All Is Well with India Renewable Story, Eerie Similarities with Earlier Events in Thermal Power

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and...

Vermilion Research

HSBC Holdings Plc – Likely Getting a Big Hickey From President Trump

* Despite bottom-line improvement on a go-forward basis, deferred tax asset (DTA) write-downs are likely at major global financial companies -...

Thomas J. Monaco

US Brokers - Chuck Bucks Fueling Housing

* Margin finance not only remains a concern for the US share market, but the US housing market as well. * Charles Schwab is the latest example of...

Thomas J. Monaco

Blockchain as an Investment Theme

In a world where computer code is trusted more than human-run operations – especially amongst tech-savvy, urban Millennials – blockchain is a...

CM Research

Not All Is Well with India Renewable Story, Eerie Similarities with Earlier Events in Thermal Power

New challenges emerging for Renewable Power in IndiaSome of the recent developments in this space indicate that the India renewable story is facing...

Pankaj Sharma

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