China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

The latest rebound of the Chinese economy is a reminder of how the country’s financial and industrial sector is in the strong grasp of Beijing. Last month’s unexpected industrial sector growth catapulted the belief of government’s interferance into the market which is leveraged by a strong real estate growth and government spending.Retail sales for August show an increase with the retail sales of consumer goods hiking to 10.6 from 10.2, depicting a strong increase in consumer spending. This…

The latest rebound of the Chinese economy is a reminder of how the country’s financial and industrial sector is in the strong grasp of Beijing. Last month’s unexpected industrial sector growth catapulted the belief of government’s interferance into the market which is leveraged by a strong real estate growth and government spending.Retail sales for August show an increase with the retail sales of consumer goods hiking to 10.6 from 10.2, depicting a strong increase in consumer spending. This…

Underlying Retail Sales Weakness in China

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li> In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.</li>
<li>A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.</li>
<li>We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…</li>
</ul>


 In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.
A large part of the weakness stems from severe flooding (the worst since 1998) in northern and central China. It is estimated that floods have resulted in $33 billion in losses.
We believe that weakness seen in the CSI during August is the result of panic among consumers in reaction to the flood and not a reflection of…


China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This phenomenon owes much of the credit to the government’s credit injection into the economy and its subsequent tightening. Nevertheless, official retail sales data for July seems to be projecting the shift of consumer spending depicting the change in consumer choice.The total retail sales of consumer goods in July remained steady at 2,682. Although this…

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

The sluggish growth of Chinese economy in the past couple of months ignited concerns regarding the future of the economy. The slow growth in exports posed various threats to the highly leveraged economy which depends upon state owned enterprises and the debts owed by them. However, some sectors such as real estate have started to show signs of improvement which surely will help the economy.While the slow economic growth left Beijing concerned, the recent official data released by presents a…

The sluggish growth of Chinese economy in the past couple of months ignited concerns regarding the future of the economy. The slow growth in exports posed various threats to the highly leveraged economy which depends upon state owned enterprises and the debts owed by them. However, some sectors such as real estate have started to show signs of improvement which surely will help the economy.While the slow economic growth left Beijing concerned, the recent official data released by presents a…

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic. We continue to highlight our view that China’s economy is much stronger than depressed levels of Consumer Sentiment would suggest. We believe the Chinese government is aware of its recent confidence destabilizing policy moves and is focused on avoiding such moves in the near future, allowing consumers to pull out of a prolonged period of panic. Data collection for the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey ended by the June 23rd Brexit referendum. While it is not yet clear what impact the Brexit will have on the CSI it has the potential to adversely change the global economic outlook and the outlook for China. Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring the spillover effects of the Brexit carefully.

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.  We continue to highlight our view that China’s economy is much stronger than depressed levels of Consumer Sentiment would suggest. We believe the Chinese government is aware of its recent confidence destabilizing policy moves and is focused on avoiding such moves in the near future, allowing consumers to pull out of a prolonged period of panic.  Data collection for the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey ended by the June 23rd Brexit referendum. While it is not yet clear what impact the Brexit will have on the CSI it has the potential to adversely change the global economic outlook and the outlook for China.  Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring the spillover effects of the Brexit carefully.

China Consumer Sentiment Rises in June as Panic Surrounding Slowing Economy Continues to Dissipate

Hong Kong

GOME Retail Holdings Limited is a Chinese retail conglomerate focused on selling home electrical appliances, consumer electronics, and general merchandise through physical stores and online platforms. The company operates in mainland China and Hong Kong, offering a wide range of products including audiovisual equipment, air-conditioning, refrigeration, washing appliances, telecommunications, and IT categories. It was founded in Beijing in 1987.

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GOME Retail (493 HK)

Underlying Retail Sales Weakness in China

The latest rebound of the Chinese economy is a reminder of how the country’s financial and industrial sector is in the strong grasp of Beijing....

Christopher Balding

China Consumer Sentiment Drops in August As Flood Causes Panic - Actual Impact Insignificant

In August the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a very depressed level of 111.5, well under the threshold of 116 indicating...

David Riedel

Retail Sales in China Outside Headline Numbers Remain Weak

The recent spate Chinese data released, seems to be promising due to the slow growth and relative decline in the real economic growth. This...

Christopher Balding

Inside the Chinese Retail Sector

The sluggish growth of Chinese economy in the past couple of months ignited concerns regarding the future of the economy. The slow growth in...

Christopher Balding

China Consumer Sentiment Rises in June as Panic Surrounding Slowing Economy Continues to Dissipate

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers...

David Riedel

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