New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Goodman Property Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Goodman (GMT) reported a tidy 1H24 result with cash earnings +7% on the prior period and slightly ahead of our expectations.</li><li>FY24 guidance was unchanged which suggests a flat 2H24, likely reflecting rental growth is currently being offset by higher interest costs.</li><li>We forecast these themes will continue into FY25 as hedging rolls off, but with the added headwind of higher tax payable as depreciation deductions are removed. </li></ul>

Goodman (GMT) reported a tidy 1H24 result with cash earnings +7% on the prior period and slightly ahead of our expectations.FY24 guidance was unchanged which suggests a flat 2H24, likely reflecting rental growth is currently being offset by higher interest costs.We forecast these themes will continue into FY25 as hedging rolls off, but with the added headwind of higher tax payable as depreciation deductions are removed. 

Goodman Property Trust - Tidy 1H24 Result but Valuation Still Full

<ul><li>Strong industrial market underpins rental growth: GMT reported FY24 cash earnings +7% to NZ$99.6m.</li><li>Gearing tracking towards top end of range: GMT's committed gearing of 29.1% is at the upper end of its 20–30% target range but management indicated that gearing could go above target if opportunities arise or market conditions dictate</li><li>Valuation remains challenging as demand shows signs of softening</li></ul>

Strong industrial market underpins rental growth: GMT reported FY24 cash earnings +7% to NZ$99.6m.Gearing tracking towards top end of range: GMT's committed gearing of 29.1% is at the upper end of its 20–30% target range but management indicated that gearing could go above target if opportunities arise or market conditions dictateValuation remains challenging as demand shows signs of softening

Goodman Property Trust: Solid FY23 Result but Still Expensive

<ul><li>Goodman Property Trust (GMT) has reported a solid FY23 result, with cash earnings +7% yoy to NZ$99.6m, which was in line with our forecast but with slightly lower administrative and tax expenses offsetting higher than expected interest.</li><li>Auckland industrial has had another strong year; GMT believes its portfolio is now c.25% under-rented and achieved spreads of +23% vs. prior rents on leasing completed through the year.</li><li>Based on the lease rent review profile in FY24, we estimate lease events should lift underlying rents by c.8% through the year.</li></ul>

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) has reported a solid FY23 result, with cash earnings +7% yoy to NZ$99.6m, which was in line with our forecast but with slightly lower administrative and tax expenses offsetting higher than expected interest.Auckland industrial has had another strong year; GMT believes its portfolio is now c.25% under-rented and achieved spreads of +23% vs. prior rents on leasing completed through the year.Based on the lease rent review profile in FY24, we estimate lease events should lift underlying rents by c.8% through the year.

Goodman Property Trust: FY23 Result – Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>Strong rental growth offsets the impact of cap rate softening on asset valuations</li><li>Asset valuation spreads to long term bond yields remain compressed</li><li>Benchmark for other listed portfolio valuations: GMT, KPG and PFI have all now provided the outcome of independent portfolio revaluations​​​​​​​ within the last three-months</li></ul>

Strong rental growth offsets the impact of cap rate softening on asset valuationsAsset valuation spreads to long term bond yields remain compressedBenchmark for other listed portfolio valuations: GMT, KPG and PFI have all now provided the outcome of independent portfolio revaluations​​​​​​​ within the last three-months

Goodman Property Trust: Cap Rates on the Rise

<ul><li>Goodman Property Trust (GMT) have announced FY23 draft revaluations for the 12-months to 31 March 2023.</li><li>The preliminary result is a -NZ$238m (-4.7%) reduction in the fair value of its property assets.</li><li>The FY23 revaluation outcome reflects +100bp cap rate expansion for GMT’s investment portfolio to 5.2%, with annual market rent growth of +19% reducing the impact of softening cap rates on valuations. </li></ul>

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) have announced FY23 draft revaluations for the 12-months to 31 March 2023.The preliminary result is a -NZ$238m (-4.7%) reduction in the fair value of its property assets.The FY23 revaluation outcome reflects +100bp cap rate expansion for GMT’s investment portfolio to 5.2%, with annual market rent growth of +19% reducing the impact of softening cap rates on valuations. 

Goodman Property Trust: FY23 Revaluation Update

New Zealand

Goodman Property Trust is a property trust that invests in, manages and develope portfolio of diversified property assets in Auckland. The Trust's portfolio comprises of office, industrial and retail properties.

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Goodman Property Trust (GMT NZ)

Goodman Property Trust - Tidy 1H24 Result but Valuation Still Full

Goodman (GMT) reported a tidy 1H24 result with cash earnings +7% on the prior period and slightly ahead of our expectations.

Forsyth Barr

Goodman Property Trust: Solid FY23 Result but Still Expensive

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) reported a solid FY23 result that was in line with our expectations; Upward reversion of rents to market levels and...

Forsyth Barr

Goodman Property Trust: FY23 Result – Initial Thoughts

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) has reported a solid FY23 result, with cash earnings +7% yoy to NZ$99.6m, which was in line with our forecast but with...

Forsyth Barr

Goodman Property Trust: Cap Rates on the Rise

Goodman Property Trust's (GMT) FY23 valuations have resulted in a preliminary -5% reduction in the fair value of its property assets; A +60bp...

Forsyth Barr

Goodman Property Trust: FY23 Revaluation Update

Goodman Property Trust (GMT) have announced FY23 draft revaluations for the 12-months to 31 March 2023; the FY23 revaluation outcome reflects...

Forsyth Barr

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