Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HK-Listed SF Intra is a leading player in Chinese on-demand delivery</li>
<li>H1 results show strong top-line growth, but thin margins, -ive OpCF</li>
<li>SF Intra's structure suggests no fat to cut in local eComm fulfillment expense</li>
</ul>


HK-Listed SF Intra is a leading player in Chinese on-demand delivery
H1 results show strong top-line growth, but thin margins, -ive OpCF
SF Intra's structure suggests no fat to cut in local eComm fulfillment expense


Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Public transport and taxi segments in Singapore provide much-needed stability for the group, not much downside surprise is expected. Now 54% of its revenue is generated overseas. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> subsidiary, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vicom-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19020:1" rel="noopener">Vicom Ltd (VCM SP)</a> is in charge of the OBU upgrade in Singapore, providing some high-margin incremental operating profit.</li>
<li>It trades at 14x PE, and its share price is almost at historical low, creating another reason to build positions on this.  </li>
</ul>


Public transport and taxi segments in Singapore provide much-needed stability for the group, not much downside surprise is expected. Now 54% of its revenue is generated overseas. 

Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) subsidiary, Vicom Ltd (VCM SP) is in charge of the OBU upgrade in Singapore, providing some high-margin incremental operating profit.
It trades at 14x PE, and its share price is almost at historical low, creating another reason to build positions on this.  


Comfortdelgro (CD): Growth Evident and Cheap

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chinese ride-hailing platform CaoCao plans to issue 44.2m shares at the HKEx IPO at an indicative price of HK$41.9/share, and raise net proceeds of US$219m at a valuation of HK$28.9bn.</li>
<li>CaoCao’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 2-3 years, however, much of this growth is driven through debt financing which has resulted in a highly geared balance sheet.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao (2643 HK)</a> 's IPO is overvalued at the indicative IPO price and we would recommend staying on the sidelines.</li>
</ul>


Chinese ride-hailing platform CaoCao plans to issue 44.2m shares at the HKEx IPO at an indicative price of HK$41.9/share, and raise net proceeds of US$219m at a valuation of HK$28.9bn.
CaoCao’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 2-3 years, however, much of this growth is driven through debt financing which has resulted in a highly geared balance sheet.
Our valuation analysis suggests that CaoCao (2643 HK) 's IPO is overvalued at the indicative IPO price and we would recommend staying on the sidelines.


<ul>
<li>March and Q125 parcel volume growth slowed only slightly vs strong Q424 and FY24</li>
<li>Single-Digit unit price declines should be manageable for most of the express companies</li>
<li>But express "story" generally unexciting, and most shares should continue to lag Alibaba</li>
</ul>


March and Q125 parcel volume growth slowed only slightly vs strong Q424 and FY24
Single-Digit unit price declines should be manageable for most of the express companies
But express "story" generally unexciting, and most shares should continue to lag Alibaba


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.</li>
<li>The largest passive flows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-tabungan-negara-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:731:1" rel="noopener">Bank Tabungan Negara Persero</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adaro-energy-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6061:1" rel="noopener">Adaro Energy</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak-com-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak.com PT Tbk</a>.</li>
<li>There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 Index and 2 changes for the IDX80 Index to be implemented at the close on 30 April.
The largest passive flows are expected in Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Jago Tbk PT, Bank Mandiri Persero, Bank Tabungan Negara Persero, Adaro Energy and Bukalapak.com PT Tbk.
There are only 4 days to implementation, so there could be relatively big moves on the changes to the IDX30 Index.


IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

Indonesia

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins

SF Intra's H125 results give us some valuable insights into China's on-demand retail segment, which has shown strong growth in recent periods.

Tracking Traffic

Comfortdelgro (CD): Growth Evident and Cheap

Comfortdelgro 54% revenue from overseas. Vicom Ltd's OBU upgrade offers high-margin profit, trading at 14x PE near historical low. Opportunity to...

Henry Soediarko

CaoCao IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

CaoCao will debut on he HKEx today offering 44.2m shares at a final IPO price of HK$41.9 per share. The HK offering is oversubscribed by 21.1x...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

In March and Q125, express volume growth remained firm, and unit price declines should be manageable for most express companies. But as an...

Tracking Traffic

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 and 2 for the IDX80, nothing for the LQ45. Flow and impact are material for the IDX30 index changes.

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Checking in With On-Demand Delivery Leader SF Intra-City (9699 HK) | Strong Growth, Thin Margins

SF Intra's H125 results give us some valuable insights into China's on-demand retail segment, which has shown strong growth in recent periods.

Tracking Traffic

Comfortdelgro (CD): Growth Evident and Cheap

​Comfortdelgro 54% revenue from overseas. Vicom Ltd's OBU upgrade offers high-margin profit, trading at 14x PE near historical low. Opportunity to...

Henry Soediarko

CaoCao IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

CaoCao will debut on he HKEx today offering 44.2m shares at a final IPO price of HK$41.9 per share. The HK offering is oversubscribed by 21.1x...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March, Q125 Growth Solid | But Shares Lag Alibaba (April 2025)

In March and Q125, express volume growth remained firm, and unit price declines should be manageable for most express companies. But as an...

Tracking Traffic

IDX30/​​LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes

There is 1 constituent change for the IDX30 and 2 for the IDX80, nothing for the LQ45. Flow and impact are material for the IDX30 index changes.

Brian Freitas

Comfortdelgro 54% revenue from overseas. Vicom Ltd's OBU upgrade offers high-margin profit, trading at 14x PE near historical low. Opportunity to...

IDX30/LQ45/IDX80 Index Rebalance: Few Changes