IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>'s cash and scrip offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$4.87-5.71. </li>
<li>Perpetual shareholders are getting the short end of the stick. While possible, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a>/BPEA EQT riding to the rescue of Perpetual shareholders is low. </li>
<li>Pendal shareholders, who are the net beneficiaries, will be supportive of the offer. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer is 11.3%.</li>
</ul>


The IE considers Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)'s cash and scrip offer for Pendal Group (PDL AU) to be fair and reasonable as it is within its valuation range of A$4.87-5.71. 
Perpetual shareholders are getting the short end of the stick. While possible, Regal Partners (RPL AU)/BPEA EQT riding to the rescue of Perpetual shareholders is low. 
Pendal shareholders, who are the net beneficiaries, will be supportive of the offer. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer is 11.3%.


Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Scheme Meeting on 23 December

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>APM Human Services (APM) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.</li>
<li>APM is an international human services provider, it runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


APM Human Services (APM) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.
APM is an international human services provider, it runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up - PE with a US$620m Stake Comes Free

<ul>
<li>Judo Capital raised about US$483m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.</li>
<li>Judo Capital (JC) focuses on lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Australia. It also offers a range of personal term deposit products to consumers.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


Judo Capital raised about US$483m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.
Judo Capital (JC) focuses on lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Australia. It also offers a range of personal term deposit products to consumers.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Judo Capital IPO Lock-Up - Gearing up for a A$650m Lock-Up Release

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.</li>
<li>There could be 6 changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>, increasing to 8 if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6148:1" rel="noopener">AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU)</a> continues to be halted and if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK)</a> is privatised.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 trading days to go in the review period for the September rebalance of the S&amp;P/ASX indices. Announcement is on 2 September with implementation on 16 September.
There could be 6 changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX), increasing to 8 if AVZ Minerals (AVZ AU) continues to be halted and if Link Administration (LNK) is privatised.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last month. Short interest has increased on a few potential deletes. There will be pre-positions built up.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, China Tourism launched its US$2.5bn IPO. </li>
<li>There were no major placements this week and it likely to remain that way in the near future owing to it being earnings season.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, China Tourism launched its US$2.5bn IPO. 
There were no major placements this week and it likely to remain that way in the near future owing to it being earnings season.


ECM Weekly (14th Aug 2022) - China Tourism, A/H Listing, Hongjiu Fruit, Socar, Betagro, ThaiBev, GQG

United States

GQG Partners Inc. operates as an independent asset management firm. The Company offers investment advisory, portfolio management, financial planning, and security trading services. GQG Partners serves customers worldwide.

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GQG Partners (GQG AU)

Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Scheme Meeting on 23 December

While possible, the probability of Regal/BPEA EQT derailing the deal continues to decline. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer...

Arun George

APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up - PE with a US$620m Stake Comes Free

APM Human Services (APM) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire...

Sumeet Singh

Judo Capital IPO Lock-Up - Gearing up for a A$650m Lock-Up Release

Judo Capital raised about US$483m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.

Sumeet Singh

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (14th Aug 2022) - China Tourism, A/H Listing, Hongjiu Fruit, Socar, Betagro, ThaiBev, GQG

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pendal (PDL AU)/Perpetual (PPT AU) Scheme Meeting on 23 December

While possible, the probability of Regal/BPEA EQT derailing the deal continues to decline. At the last close prices, the gross spread to the offer...

Arun George

APM Human Services IPO Lock-Up - PE with a US$620m Stake Comes Free

APM Human Services (APM) raised about US$730m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire...

Sumeet Singh

Judo Capital IPO Lock-Up - Gearing up for a A$650m Lock-Up Release

Judo Capital raised about US$483m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.

Sumeet Singh

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears

There are a LOT of potential changes to the S&P/ASX indices as we near the end of the review period. The potential adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

ECM Weekly (14th Aug 2022) - China Tourism, A/H Listing, Hongjiu Fruit, Socar, Betagro, ThaiBev, GQG

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.

Sumeet Singh

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Outperform Deletes As Review Period End Nears