Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The global market sentiments are in agony lately due to the vicious Covid-19 which is yet to loom in many geographies. Moreover, the fact that the Indian indices are burning coupled with lack of a stern banking system simply aids in the macroeconomic woes of the country. Through this insight, we try to figure out reasons some of the Indian heavyweight entities that could be exposed naked to the risk of bankruptcy in the wake of upcoming recession which has more chances of 'mights' than 'might nots'.</p>

The global market sentiments are in agony lately due to the vicious Covid-19 which is yet to loom in many geographies. Moreover, the fact that the Indian indices are burning coupled with lack of a stern banking system simply aids in the macroeconomic woes of the country. Through this insight, we try to figure out reasons some of the Indian heavyweight entities that could be exposed naked to the risk of bankruptcy in the wake of upcoming recession which has more chances of 'mights' than 'might nots'.

High Distress Levels: Indian Companies Caught Off-Guard

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Vedanta, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum, Grasim Industries, Hindalco Industries, HDFC Bank.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-India in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Vedanta, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum, Grasim Industries, Hindalco Industries, HDFC Bank.


MS-India Index Earning Revision (May): Vedanta, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum, HDFC Bank

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Bharti Airtel, Oil &amp; Natural Gas, Grasim Industries, State Bank of India, Hindalco Industries, InterGlobe Aviation.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Bharti Airtel, Oil &amp; Natural Gas, Grasim Industries, State Bank of India, Hindalco Industries, InterGlobe Aviation.


NIFTY Index Earning Revision (May): Bharti Airtel, Oil & Natural Gas, Grasim Industries

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<p>We wonder if the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16381:1">Jet Airways India (JETIN IN)</a> flight cancellations are some of the most visible signs of liquidity freezing up? There are plenty of companies in India with much more debt, and where the ability to service loans is far worse. The bad loan cycle is well in place. The risk is that this worsens due to lack of liquidity.  The largest 50 debtors in India account for 63% of debt in our corporate sample set. Some 17 of these companies have interest coverage at low levels, averaging 0.7x as at FY18. Where liquidity was their lifeline, for those holding on, the risk is of default rises.</p>

We wonder if the Jet Airways India (JETIN IN) flight cancellations are some of the most visible signs of liquidity freezing up? There are plenty of companies in India with much more debt, and where the ability to service loans is far worse. The bad loan cycle is well in place. The risk is that this worsens due to lack of liquidity.  The largest 50 debtors in India account for 63% of debt in our corporate sample set. Some 17 of these companies have interest coverage at low levels, averaging 0.7x as at FY18. Where liquidity was their lifeline, for those holding on, the risk is of default rises.

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>BSE SENSEX represents the 30 largest stocks listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). We have presented our estimations for selection ranks for ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index rebal event.</li>
<li>Since our last insight, there have been some sharp relative price moves among top-ranked index change candidates and our expectations have changed.</li>
<li>Today is the base date for the June 2026 review and we have presented our final expectations in this insight. </li>
</ul>


BSE SENSEX represents the 30 largest stocks listed in the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). We have presented our estimations for selection ranks for ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index rebal event.
Since our last insight, there have been some sharp relative price moves among top-ranked index change candidates and our expectations have changed.
Today is the base date for the June 2026 review and we have presented our final expectations in this insight. 


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE ​​​​SENSEX Jun26: All For Nothing; Final Expectations

India

Grasim Industries Limited is a diversified operating company and part of the Aditya Birla group. The group manufactures a wide range of products, including Viscose Staple Fiber(VSF), cement, chemicals and textiles.

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Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN)

High Distress Levels: Indian Companies Caught Off-Guard

The global market sentiments are in agony lately due to the vicious Covid-19 which is yet to loom in many geographies. Moreover, the fact that the...

Nitin Mangal

MS-India Index Earning Revision (May): Vedanta, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum, HDFC Bank

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for May 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Vedanta, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum, Grasim Industries,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (May): Bharti Airtel, Oil & Natural Gas, Grasim Industries

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for May 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Bharti Airtel, Oil & Natural Gas, Grasim Industries, State Bank of...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

India – Liquidity Freeze

We wonder if the Jet Airways India (JETIN IN) flight cancellations are some of the most visible signs of liquidity freezing up? There are plenty of...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE SENSEX Jun26: All For Nothing; Final Expectations

Trent remains the highest-ranked potential DEL. According to our estimates, Trent is expected to escape deletion in June 2026.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

High Distress Levels: Indian Companies Caught Off-Guard

The global market sentiments are in agony lately due to the vicious Covid-19 which is yet to loom in many geographies. Moreover, the fact that the...

Nitin Mangal

MS-India Index Earning Revision (May): Vedanta, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum, HDFC Bank

We analyzed MS-India's consensus for May 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Vedanta, Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum, Grasim Industries,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (May): Bharti Airtel, Oil & Natural Gas, Grasim Industries

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for May 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Bharti Airtel, Oil & Natural Gas, Grasim Industries, State Bank of...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

India – Liquidity Freeze

We wonder if the Jet Airways India (JETIN IN) flight cancellations are some of the most visible signs of liquidity freezing up? There are plenty of...

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE ​​​​SENSEX Jun26: All For Nothing; Final Expectations

Trent remains the highest-ranked potential DEL. According to our estimates, Trent is expected to escape deletion in June 2026.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE SENSEX Jun26: All For Nothing; Final Expectations