Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

Chery Automobile / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chery Auto, the second largest Chinese domestic brand passenger vehicle company, priced its IPO at the high end of the range at HK$30.75/share.</li>
<li>High demand for the stock was predictable. Cornerstone investors collectively agreed to acquire ~$588M worth of Chery Auto shares in this offering.  </li>
<li>The Chery Auto stock is set to start trading on Thursday. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO offer price as growth is slowing down and margins compressed.</li>
</ul>


Chery Auto, the second largest Chinese domestic brand passenger vehicle company, priced its IPO at the high end of the range at HK$30.75/share.
High demand for the stock was predictable. Cornerstone investors collectively agreed to acquire ~$588M worth of Chery Auto shares in this offering.  
The Chery Auto stock is set to start trading on Thursday. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO offer price as growth is slowing down and margins compressed.


Chery Auto IPO (9973.HK): Modest Potential Upside, Geely Auto Screens As a Good Comparison

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 12th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Alibaba, China Pacific Insurance, Tencent, Bidu, Akeso, Shandong Gold Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 12th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Alibaba, China Pacific Insurance, Tencent, Bidu, Akeso, Shandong Gold Mining.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, China Pacific Insurance, Tencent, Bidu, Akeso

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 19th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance, Duality Biotherapeutics, Xiaomi, Tencent, ICBC, Great Wall Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 19th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance, Duality Biotherapeutics, Xiaomi, Tencent, ICBC, Great Wall Motor.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 19th): Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. </li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on EV/EBITDA of 5.9x our estimated EBITDA of 37.1 billion RMB in 2026. Our target multiple is 30% premium to the comps' average multiple.</li>
<li>We have chosen to use a premium valuation multiple mainly due to Chery Auto's higher ROE, sales growth, and net margins vs the comps.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
Our base case valuation is based on EV/EBITDA of 5.9x our estimated EBITDA of 37.1 billion RMB in 2026. Our target multiple is 30% premium to the comps' average multiple.
We have chosen to use a premium valuation multiple mainly due to Chery Auto's higher ROE, sales growth, and net margins vs the comps.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chery-automobile-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39918:1" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile (9973 HK)</a> is a Chinese automobile manufacturer. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.2 billion.</li>
<li>I previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chery-automobile-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200985" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chery-automobile-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:201049" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is reasonable.</li>
</ul>



Chery Automobile (9973 HK) is a Chinese automobile manufacturer. It has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.2 billion.
I previously discussed the IPO in Chery Automobile IPO: The Bull Case and Chery Automobile IPO: The Bear Case. 
In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that the IPO price range is reasonable.


Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK): Valuation Insights

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

Chery Auto IPO (9973.HK): Modest Potential Upside, Geely Auto Screens As a Good Comparison

Chery Auto successfully completed its IPO in Hong Kong and raised more than US$1B. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO price of HK$30.75/share...

Andrei Zakharov

HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, China Pacific Insurance, Tencent, Bidu, Akeso

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 12th and highlight short interest changes in Alibaba, China Pacific...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 19th): Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance, Duality...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK): Valuation Insights

Chery Auto has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.2 billion. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chery Auto IPO (9973.HK): Modest Potential Upside, Geely Auto Screens As a Good Comparison

​Chery Auto successfully completed its IPO in Hong Kong and raised more than US$1B. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO price of HK$30.75/share...

Andrei Zakharov

HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, China Pacific Insurance, Tencent, Bidu, Akeso

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 12th and highlight short interest changes in Alibaba, China Pacific...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 19th): Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Alibaba, Beigene, China Pacific Insurance, Duality...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chery Auto IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Chery Auto is target price of HKD 40.6 which is 32% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.

Douglas Kim

Chery Automobile IPO (9973 HK): Valuation Insights

Chery Auto has launched an HKEx IPO to raise up to US$1.2 billion. In this note, I present my forecasts and valuation. My analysis suggests that...

Arun George

Chery Auto successfully completed its IPO in Hong Kong and raised more than US$1B. I see modest potential upside vs. IPO price of HK$30.75/share...