HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it. </li>
<li>The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.</li>
<li>The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average</li>
</ul>


The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it. 
The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.
The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average


Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Troy Wong

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Green Tea Group (GTG) raised around US$ 110m in its Hong Kong IPO in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Green Tea is the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland China, it has been gaining market share historically and is likely to continue doing so.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Green Tea Group (GTG) raised around US$ 110m in its Hong Kong IPO in its Hong Kong IPO.
Green Tea is the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland China, it has been gaining market share historically and is likely to continue doing so.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Green Tea Group IPO Trading - Decent Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Well

<ul>
<li>The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management's consideration of attracting long-term funds.</li>
<li>If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.</li>
<li>However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea's valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.  </li>
</ul>


The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management's consideration of attracting long-term funds.
If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.
However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea's valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.  


Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

<ul>
<li>Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise US$157m (HKD 1.2bn) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>GTG is the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland China, it has been gaining market share historically and is likely to continue.</li>
<li>GTG plans to accelerate its expansion of the restaurant network, focusing on expansion into tier two cities and below, with small restaurants rather than large ones.</li>
</ul>


Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise US$157m (HKD 1.2bn) in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
GTG is the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland China, it has been gaining market share historically and is likely to continue.
GTG plans to accelerate its expansion of the restaurant network, focusing on expansion into tier two cities and below, with small restaurants rather than large ones.


Green Tea Group IPO - Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation

<ul>
<li>Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Citi and CMBI.</li>
<li>GTG is a leading Casual Chinese restaurant chain operator in Mainland China, its revenue growth has been driven mainly via rapid store expansion.</li>
<li>Persistently negative SSSG post-COVID could signal potential cannibalization or a negative impact from a shift in consumer spending behavior.</li>
</ul>


Green Tea Group (GTG) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Citi and CMBI.
GTG is a leading Casual Chinese restaurant chain operator in Mainland China, its revenue growth has been driven mainly via rapid store expansion.
Persistently negative SSSG post-COVID could signal potential cannibalization or a negative impact from a shift in consumer spending behavior.


Green Tea Group Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Still Being Driven Purely by Store Expansion

China

Green Tea Group is a restaurant chain operator for fusion cuisine in China. As of the latest practicable date (30 Sept 2021), the firm’s restaurant network consists of 208 restaurants covering 18 provinces, four municipalities and three autonomous regions in the PRC.

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Green Tea Group (GT HK)

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The IPO pricing is attractive, but this could be the only advantage. As analyzed, Green Tea''s growth is hindered and its fundamentals are weak....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Green Tea Group IPO Trading - Decent Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Well

Green Tea Group raises $110m in Hong Kong IPO, poised to continue gaining market share as fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland...

Troy Wong

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Green Tea Group IPO - Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation

Green Tea Group aims to raise US$157m in its Hong Kong IPO, as the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in China it plans to expand into...

Troy Wong

Green Tea Group Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Still Being Driven Purely by Store Expansion

Green Tea Group plans to raise $200m in Hong Kong IPO. Revenue growth driven by store expansion, but negative SSSG post-COVID raises concerns...

Troy Wong

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The IPO pricing is attractive, but this could be the only advantage. As analyzed, Green Tea''s growth is hindered and its fundamentals are weak....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Green Tea Group IPO Trading - Decent Institutional Coverage, Likely to Trade Well

​Green Tea Group raises $110m in Hong Kong IPO, poised to continue gaining market share as fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland...

Troy Wong

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

​Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Green Tea Group IPO - Peer Comp & Thoughts on Valuation

​Green Tea Group aims to raise US$157m in its Hong Kong IPO, as the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in China it plans to expand into...

Troy Wong

Green Tea Group Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - Still Being Driven Purely by Store Expansion

​Green Tea Group plans to raise $200m in Hong Kong IPO. Revenue growth driven by store expansion, but negative SSSG post-COVID raises concerns...

Troy Wong

Green Tea Group raises $110m in Hong Kong IPO, poised to continue gaining market share as fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in Mainland...

Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

Green Tea Group aims to raise US$157m in its Hong Kong IPO, as the fourth largest Casual Chinese Cuisine player in China it plans to expand into...

Green Tea Group plans to raise $200m in Hong Kong IPO. Revenue growth driven by store expansion, but negative SSSG post-COVID raises concerns...