Blue Lotus Research Institute

Andy Fu

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; </li>
<li>Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? </li>
<li>We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.</li>
</ul>


As we previously noted, Chinese housing market started 2025 with a bang but quickly deteriorated. This trend became more pronounced post CNY; 
Is this a temporary lull from the very strong start? Or it signals something more troublesome in consumption in 2025? 
We now think our forecasted 25% GTV growth by Beike in C1Q25 is at risk.


Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to the sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

<ul>
<li>After 40 months of consecutive MoM decline, China's real estate market is on the brink of a somewhat sustained recovery, with particularly, pricing improvement in November;</li>
<li>Pricing is important because it entices buyers back to the market. Before that, transaction volumes have already seen meaningful rebound and the rebound has spread from existing to new homes;</li>
<li>We maintain our view that China had a moderate property bubble in the tradable housing sector but not the overall housing sector. Long term growth potential is still bright.</li>
</ul>


After 40 months of consecutive MoM decline, China's real estate market is on the brink of a somewhat sustained recovery, with particularly, pricing improvement in November;
Pricing is important because it entices buyers back to the market. Before that, transaction volumes have already seen meaningful rebound and the rebound has spread from existing to new homes;
We maintain our view that China had a moderate property bubble in the tradable housing sector but not the overall housing sector. Long term growth potential is still bright.


China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

<ul>
<li>There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data</li>
<li>The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector </li>
<li>In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months</li>
</ul>


There are more 'less negative' signs in the latest data for October/November sales, especially in the weekly data
The policy measures for property, perceived broadly as rather underwhelming, suggest the goal of 'stabilizing it' remains clear, with caution about the excessive support for the sector 
In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major cities, and the policy over the past few months


<ul>
<li>Weekly new home sales data (to Oct 20) shows a strong improvement ('less negative') on a 4-week y/y basis, a sign of a response to the waves of policy support.</li>
<li>We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report looking at 17 major cities and the latest data for the week ending October 20, 2024.</li>
<li>Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.</li>
</ul>


Weekly new home sales data (to Oct 20) shows a strong improvement ('less negative') on a 4-week y/y basis, a sign of a response to the waves of policy support.
We highlight points from our Weekly New Home Sales Data Update Report looking at 17 major cities and the latest data for the week ending October 20, 2024.
Certain weekly metrics on a small sample of cities serve as a good gauge for what to expect directionally in the national NBS data released later.


China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Shows Reaction To Policy Support (To Oct 20, 2024)

China

Greentown China Holdings Ltd. is a leading property developer and integrated living service provider in China, specializing in premium residential properties, hotel operations, property investment, and project management. The company also offers design, architectural decoration, and construction material sales. It was founded in January 1995 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Greentown China (3900 HK)

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 31 - Feb 6, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

China's real estate market shows signs of rebound with narrowing decline in home prices, potential stabilization post Chinese New Year 2025. KE...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Housing: "Stabilize It"

In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing as of Nov 19, 20204 - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Shows Reaction To Policy Support (To Oct 20, 2024)

Weekly new home sales data (to Oct 20) shows a strong improvement ('less negative') on a 4-week y/y basis, a sign of a response to the waves of...

Robert Ciemniak

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Fast Deterioration of Housing Transaction Post CNY Pointed to Fragile Recovery

​Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | Jan 31- Feb 6, 2025

This note is a weekly (Jan 31 - Feb 6, 2025; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

China's Real Estate Market Showed Beyond-Record Rebound in Year End...Will It Carry to 2025?

​China's real estate market shows signs of rebound with narrowing decline in home prices, potential stabilization post Chinese New Year 2025. KE...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China Housing: "Stabilize It"

In this note, we summarize where things stand with China housing as of Nov 19, 20204 - looking at home sales, prices, inventory, land, major...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - Weekly New Home Sales Data Shows Reaction To Policy Support (To Oct 20, 2024)

Weekly new home sales data (to Oct 20) shows a strong improvement ('less negative') on a 4-week y/y basis, a sign of a response to the waves of...

Robert Ciemniak

Home transactions in 2025 are below trend post Chinese New Year due to a temporary lull after crowded trading, with potential downside risk for...

China's real estate market shows signs of rebound with narrowing decline in home prices, potential stabilization post Chinese New Year 2025. KE...