Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Cities that stand out on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-house-prices-keep-rising-13-8-y-y-in-august-vs-12-4-in-july-soufun-100-cities-index" target="_blank">strong house price growth</a> (for new home sales) across China typically vary from those that record strongest GFA (gross floor area) sales volumes growth. In the other notes we have addressed the price growth dynamics and here we look at the pure GFA volume growth combining 12-month and 3-month period volume growth, drawing on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS and the latest complete July data.Among major cities, Qingdao, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Hohhot, Taiyuan, Harbin and…

Cities that stand out on strong house price growth (for new home sales) across China typically vary from those that record strongest GFA (gross floor area) sales volumes growth. In the other notes we have addressed the price growth dynamics and here we look at the pure GFA volume growth combining 12-month and 3-month period volume growth, drawing on the underlying data from SouFun-CREIS and the latest complete July data.Among major cities, Qingdao, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Hohhot, Taiyuan, Harbin and…

China Property: Where The Strong Volumes Are

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joy-city-property-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10958:1" rel="noopener">Joy City Property (207 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that the share buyback by way of a scheme at HK$0.62 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 17 November. </li>
<li>While the offer implies a P/B of 0.29x, it is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, there remains vote risk and caution is warranted. At the current price and for a 4 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 8.8%/103.6%. </li>
</ul>



Joy City Property (207 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback by way of a scheme at HK$0.62 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 17 November. 
While the offer implies a P/B of 0.29x, it is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
Nevertheless, there remains vote risk and caution is warranted. At the current price and for a 4 December payment, the gross/annualised spread is 8.8%/103.6%. 


Joy City Property (207 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 17 November Scheme Vote

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunny Optical</li>
<li>UST yields rose 1-2 bps across the curve yesterday, amid a soft auction of 30Y notes that tailed marginally by 0.4 bps despite strong bidding metrics.</li>
<li>The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.59%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.14%. Equities retreated, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq declining 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunny Optical
UST yields rose 1-2 bps across the curve yesterday, amid a soft auction of 30Y notes that tailed marginally by 0.4 bps despite strong bidding metrics.
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.59%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.14%. Equities retreated, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq declining 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.


<ul>
<li>UST yields plunged on Friday, as the market priced in additional Fed easing following the weak August nonfarm payrolls data.</li>
<li>As of Friday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in a full 25-bp rate cut in September, and 69 bps of cuts in the remainder of 2025 (vs. 61 bps as of Thursday).</li>
<li>The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 8 bps to 3.51%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 9 bps at 4.07%. </li>
</ul>


UST yields plunged on Friday, as the market priced in additional Fed easing following the weak August nonfarm payrolls data.
As of Friday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in a full 25-bp rate cut in September, and 69 bps of cuts in the remainder of 2025 (vs. 61 bps as of Thursday).
The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 8 bps to 3.51%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 9 bps at 4.07%. 


Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 29th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent, AIA, Pop Mart Intl, Kuaishou, SMIC, Xiaomi, CNOOC.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 29th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent, AIA, Pop Mart Intl, Kuaishou, SMIC, Xiaomi, CNOOC.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 29th): Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent, AIA, Pop Mart Intl, Kuaishou, SMIC

China

Greentown China Holdings Ltd. is a leading property developer and integrated living service provider in China, specializing in premium residential properties, hotel operations, property investment, and project management. The company also offers design, architectural decoration, and construction material sales. It was founded in January 1995 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China.

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Greentown China (3900 HK)

China Property: Where The Strong Volumes Are

Cities that stand out on strong house price growth (for new home sales) across China typically vary from those that record strongest GFA (gross...

Robert Ciemniak

Joy City Property (207 HK): Wide Spread Ahead of the 17 November Scheme Vote

While the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges, there remains vote risk. For a 4 December payment, the...

Arun George

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Sunny Optical

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

The UST curve bull flattened, with the yield on the 2Y UST falling 8 bps to 3.51%, while that on the 10Y UST was down 9 bps at 4.07%.

Lucror Analytics

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Aug 29th): Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent, AIA, Pop Mart Intl, Kuaishou, SMIC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Meituan, Alibaba, Tencent, AIA, Pop Mart Intl, Kuaishou,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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