European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Brookfield has renewed takeover interest in Grifols after a failed bid, signaling confidence in the company’s turnaround and prompting investor speculation about a significantly improved future offer.</li>
<li>Grifols’ financial position has strengthened with a 4.6x Net Debt/EBITDA, €504 million in free cash flow, and strategic refinancing, reducing the likelihood of a capital increase and supporting shareholder value.</li>
<li>Grifols B shares trade at a 21.6% discount to A shares, offering an attractive convergence opportunity, as bylaws mandate equal treatment in the event of a public acquisition offer.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield has renewed takeover interest in Grifols after a failed bid, signaling confidence in the company’s turnaround and prompting investor speculation about a significantly improved future offer.
Grifols’ financial position has strengthened with a 4.6x Net Debt/EBITDA, €504 million in free cash flow, and strategic refinancing, reducing the likelihood of a capital increase and supporting shareholder value.
Grifols B shares trade at a 21.6% discount to A shares, offering an attractive convergence opportunity, as bylaws mandate equal treatment in the event of a public acquisition offer.


Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).
Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3 tightened, 4 at same level).</li>
<li>Telecom Italia savers sharply reduced their premium to ords to 12% (vs. 18.5%); Handelsbanken B shares trade at 39.9% premium to A shares.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3 tightened, 4 at same level).
Telecom Italia savers sharply reduced their premium to ords to 12% (vs. 18.5%); Handelsbanken B shares trade at 39.9% premium to A shares.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February'25 Report

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For H1FY25, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:917:1" rel="noopener">CSL Ltd (CSL AU)</a> reported net profit of $2.01B, up 6% YoY, missing estimate of $2.07B. Underlying profit (NPATA) grew 3% YoY to $2.07B.</li>
<li>H1FY25 revenue increased 5% YoY to $8.48B. Solid performance from CSL Behring and CSL Vifor was partially offset by negative impact from CSL Seqirus.</li>
<li>The company has reaffirmed FY25 underlying profit guidance of $3.2–3.3B at constant currency, up 10–13% YoY. Revenue growth is anticipated to be 5–7% YoY at constant currency.    </li>
</ul>


For H1FY25, CSL Ltd (CSL AU) reported net profit of $2.01B, up 6% YoY, missing estimate of $2.07B. Underlying profit (NPATA) grew 3% YoY to $2.07B.
H1FY25 revenue increased 5% YoY to $8.48B. Solid performance from CSL Behring and CSL Vifor was partially offset by negative impact from CSL Seqirus.
The company has reaffirmed FY25 underlying profit guidance of $3.2–3.3B at constant currency, up 10–13% YoY. Revenue growth is anticipated to be 5–7% YoY at constant currency.    


CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Weak Vaccine Sales Affect H1FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Maintained

<ul>
<li>Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.
Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Spain

Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

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Grifols (GRFS US)

Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February'25 Report

Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Weak Vaccine Sales Affect H1FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Maintained

CSL Ltd's H1FY25 net profit rises 6% YoY to $2.01B, missing estimates. Revenue is up 5% YoY to $8.48B. FY25 profit guidance reaffirmed at $3.2...

Tina Banerjee

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

​Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

​European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February'25 Report

Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CSL Ltd (CSL AU): Weak Vaccine Sales Affect H1FY25 Performance; FY25 Guidance Maintained

​CSL Ltd's H1FY25 net profit rises 6% YoY to $2.01B, missing estimates. Revenue is up 5% YoY to $8.48B. FY25 profit guidance reaffirmed at $3.2...

Tina Banerjee

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

CSL Ltd's H1FY25 net profit rises 6% YoY to $2.01B, missing estimates. Revenue is up 5% YoY to $8.48B. FY25 profit guidance reaffirmed at $3.2...