Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Group 1 Automotive, a prominent name in the automotive dealership and services sector, demonstrated a mixed financial performance in its third quarter of 2024, unveiling both strengths and areas for improvement.</li><li>The company's recent earnings call provided a detailed discourse on its operational status, strategic initiatives, and financial metrics, presenting a complex landscape of achievements and challenges.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Group 1 Automotive, a prominent name in the automotive dealership and services sector, demonstrated a mixed financial performance in its third quarter of 2024, unveiling both strengths and areas for improvement.The company's recent earnings call provided a detailed discourse on its operational status, strategic initiatives, and financial metrics, presenting a complex landscape of achievements and challenges.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Group 1 Automotive Inc.: How Are They Tackling Economic Uncertainty & Consumer Spending Challenges? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Group 1 Automotive's second quarter of 2024 financial results generally mirrored the broader challenges and opportunities facing the automotive industry, marked by resilience amid disruptions and strategic expansions that promise future growth.</li><li>The company navigated significant obstacles, including extreme weather events and a significant system outage from its dealership management service provider, CDK, which impacted its operations from June 19 to June 26.</li><li>Despite these challenges, Group 1 Automotive managed to minimize the financial impact significantly, estimating a pretax income impact of the CDK incident at approximately $17 million or $0.97 in diluted earnings per share, along with one-time pretax compensation payments to employees amounting to $5.9 million or approximately $0.34 per dilute share.</li></ul>

Group 1 Automotive's second quarter of 2024 financial results generally mirrored the broader challenges and opportunities facing the automotive industry, marked by resilience amid disruptions and strategic expansions that promise future growth.The company navigated significant obstacles, including extreme weather events and a significant system outage from its dealership management service provider, CDK, which impacted its operations from June 19 to June 26.Despite these challenges, Group 1 Automotive managed to minimize the financial impact significantly, estimating a pretax income impact of the CDK incident at approximately $17 million or $0.97 in diluted earnings per share, along with one-time pretax compensation payments to employees amounting to $5.9 million or approximately $0.34 per dilute share.

Group 1 Automotive Inc.: Dealing With The Risk of Overreliance on Acquisitions for Growth & Other Challenges! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Group 1 Automotive recently held a comprehensive review of its first quarter 2024 financial results, reflecting significant developments and strategic advancements.</li><li>Notable was the acquisition of Inchcape Retail, a move positioned as the largest dealership transaction in the company's history, signaling Group 1 Automotive's strategic growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A).</li><li>This acquisition was highlighted as immediately accretive, enhancing the company’s footprint in both new and existing markets without necessitating substantial facility investment, further emphasizing prudent capital allocation.</li></ul>

Group 1 Automotive recently held a comprehensive review of its first quarter 2024 financial results, reflecting significant developments and strategic advancements.Notable was the acquisition of Inchcape Retail, a move positioned as the largest dealership transaction in the company's history, signaling Group 1 Automotive's strategic growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A).This acquisition was highlighted as immediately accretive, enhancing the company’s footprint in both new and existing markets without necessitating substantial facility investment, further emphasizing prudent capital allocation.

Group 1 Automotive Inc.: A Story Of Strategic Acquisitions & Global Market Expansion! - Major Drivers

<ul>
<li>Group 1 Automotive presented solid performance in the fourth quarter of 2023 through all lines of business, reaching a total revenue of $17.9 billion, marking the highest for the company and attaining a record of total gross profit exceeding $3 billion.</li>
<li>Though the company reported $131.2 million in adjusted net income, it is clearly driven by the parts and service gross profit, which amounted to $1.2 billion.This is our first report on retail player, the Kohl's Corporation.</li>
<li>The company's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings showed a mix of positives and negatives in terms of the company's financial performance and future outlook.</li>
</ul>


Group 1 Automotive presented solid performance in the fourth quarter of 2023 through all lines of business, reaching a total revenue of $17.9 billion, marking the highest for the company and attaining a record of total gross profit exceeding $3 billion.
Though the company reported $131.2 million in adjusted net income, it is clearly driven by the parts and service gross profit, which amounted to $1.2 billion.This is our first report on retail player, the Kohl's Corporation.
The company's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings showed a mix of positives and negatives in terms of the company's financial performance and future outlook.


Group 1 Automotive: Is The Favorable Shift Towards Hybrid Vehicles Truly Benefitting The Company?

United States

Group 1 Automotive, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates automobile dealerships.  The Company sells new and used cars and light trucks, provides maintenance and repair services, and sells replacement parts.  The Company also arranges related financing, insurance, and extended service contracts.  Group 1 operates in Florida, Georgia, Colorado, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas.

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Group 1 Automotive (GPI US)

Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Local Tops for 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX, U.S. Dollar $DXY, & WTI Crude Oil $CL_F, Now Tailwinds for Equities; All Major Indexes We Discussed...

Vermilion Research

Group 1 Automotive Inc.: How Are They Tackling Economic Uncertainty & Consumer Spending Challenges? - Major Drivers

Group 1 Automotive, a prominent name in the automotive dealership and services sector, demonstrated a mixed financial performance in its third...

Baptista Research

Group 1 Automotive Inc.: Dealing With The Risk of Overreliance on Acquisitions for Growth & Other Challenges! - Major Drivers

Group 1 Automotive's second quarter of 2024 financial results generally mirrored the broader challenges and opportunities facing the automotive...

Baptista Research

Group 1 Automotive Inc.: A Story Of Strategic Acquisitions & Global Market Expansion! - Major Drivers

Group 1 Automotive recently held a comprehensive review of its first quarter 2024 financial results, reflecting significant developments and...

Baptista Research

Group 1 Automotive: Is The Favorable Shift Towards Hybrid Vehicles Truly Benefitting The Company?

Group 1 Automotive presented solid performance in the fourth quarter of 2023 through all lines of business, reaching a total revenue of $17.9...

Baptista Research

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