Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>CVC and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert launched a binding €51.29/share ex-dividend take-private for Recordati, with irrevocable commitments already covering 46.8% of the share capital.</li>
<li>The offer price is effectively unchanged from the original March proposal despite completed due diligence, financing syndication and shareholder alignment, suggesting limited willingness to materially improve terms.</li>
<li>At €51.60, investors are no longer being paid for deal completion, but for the possibility of a bump.</li>
</ul>


CVC and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert launched a binding €51.29/share ex-dividend take-private for Recordati, with irrevocable commitments already covering 46.8% of the share capital.
The offer price is effectively unchanged from the original March proposal despite completed due diligence, financing syndication and shareholder alignment, suggesting limited willingness to materially improve terms.
At €51.60, investors are no longer being paid for deal completion, but for the possibility of a bump.


Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

<ul>
<li>Dispersion persists across European holdcos, with discounts anchored by structure and governance rather than valuation. Convergence remains selective and catalyst-driven, not a broad-based re-rating.</li>
<li>Event-Driven asymmetry remains concentrated, with Vivendi offering legal-driven optionality and Rio conditional on strategic pressure, while most structures trade within stable equilibrium ranges.</li>
<li>Elsewhere, discounts reflect steady-state positioning, with GBL tightening on execution, Porsche stable at structural levels, and Nordic holdcos trading near parity as quality proxies.</li>
</ul>


Dispersion persists across European holdcos, with discounts anchored by structure and governance rather than valuation. Convergence remains selective and catalyst-driven, not a broad-based re-rating.
Event-Driven asymmetry remains concentrated, with Vivendi offering legal-driven optionality and Rio conditional on strategic pressure, while most structures trade within stable equilibrium ranges.
Elsewhere, discounts reflect steady-state positioning, with GBL tightening on execution, Porsche stable at structural levels, and Nordic holdcos trading near parity as quality proxies.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2026 Report

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

The Potential for National Financial Default

<ul>
<li>Dispersion has returned across European holdcos. Vivendi moves back into dislocation, while Nordic structures remain anchored near parity, offering limited convergence and behaving as directional equity exposure.</li>
<li>Event-Driven setups dominate the opportunity set. Vivendi offers legal-driven asymmetry, while Rio provides conditional optionality on renewed strategic pressure, both requiring timing discipline rather than valuation conviction.</li>
<li>Elsewhere, discounts reflect equilibrium. GBL continues gradual compression through execution, while Porsche remains structurally wide but catalyst-free, leaving returns driven primarily by underlying asset performance.</li>
</ul>


Dispersion has returned across European holdcos. Vivendi moves back into dislocation, while Nordic structures remain anchored near parity, offering limited convergence and behaving as directional equity exposure.
Event-Driven setups dominate the opportunity set. Vivendi offers legal-driven asymmetry, while Rio provides conditional optionality on renewed strategic pressure, both requiring timing discipline rather than valuation conviction.
Elsewhere, discounts reflect equilibrium. GBL continues gradual compression through execution, while Porsche remains structurally wide but catalyst-free, leaving returns driven primarily by underlying asset performance.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2026 Report

Belgium

Groupe Bruxelles Lambert S.A. is a holding company with interests in energy, media, and utility companies.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces petroleum, manufactures chemicals, operates gasoline filling stations, owns and operates television and radio stations, supplies water, generates and transports electricity, transports natural gas, and offers waste management services.

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Groupe Bruxelles Lambert Sa (GBLB BB)

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements...

Vermilion Research

Recordati: Control Was Never the Question

CVC and GBL formalised their Recordati take-private at €51.29/share. With financing secured and only ~37% of free float needed, investors are now...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2026 Report

European holdcos remain dispersed: Vivendi at deep discount, Rio offers conditional optionality, while most trade near equilibrium. Convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

The Potential for National Financial Default

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased...

Bixmoor

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: March 2026 Report

Dispersion returns across European holdcos: Vivendi back to dislocation, Rio offers conditional optionality, while most structures remain anchored....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)