Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Revenues of US$1.55 billion were 6% lower YoY, and below our estimates and consensus.</li><li>Sales underperformed our estimates across all regions, with Gruma USA and Mexico posting contracting sales, on average -2.4% and the latter impacted by FX headwinds.</li><li>Central America, on the other hand, posted solid healthy amid high demand, while Europe continues to benefit from its distribution strategy, and Australia offsets China’s performance.</li></ul>

Revenues of US$1.55 billion were 6% lower YoY, and below our estimates and consensus.Sales underperformed our estimates across all regions, with Gruma USA and Mexico posting contracting sales, on average -2.4% and the latter impacted by FX headwinds.Central America, on the other hand, posted solid healthy amid high demand, while Europe continues to benefit from its distribution strategy, and Australia offsets China’s performance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.</li>
<li>Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.</li>
<li>Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. </li>
</ul>


In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.
Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.
Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. 


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.</li>
<li>For yet another quarter, we forecast average margin contraction for our covered companies, a trend that seems to be lingering for the rest of the year.</li>
<li>In Consumer, we are mostly lowering our PTs, -2% on a median basis, as we expect continued consumer softness in both Mexico and the U.S.; FX is expected to be less of a factor YoY. </li>
</ul>


A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.
For yet another quarter, we forecast average margin contraction for our covered companies, a trend that seems to be lingering for the rest of the year.
In Consumer, we are mostly lowering our PTs, -2% on a median basis, as we expect continued consumer softness in both Mexico and the U.S.; FX is expected to be less of a factor YoY. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 3Q25 Preview

<ul>
<li>ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.</li>
<li>Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.</li>
<li>The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. </li>
</ul>


ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.
Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.
The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. 


Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

<ul>
<li>Soft expectations were met by resilient results.</li>
<li>As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.</li>
</ul>


Soft expectations were met by resilient results.
As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.
Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

Mexico

Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. is engaged primarily in the production, marketing, distribution, and sale of tortillas, corn flour, and wheat flour. The Company has operations in the United States, Mexico, Central America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania.

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Gruma SAB de CV (GRUMAB MM)

Gruma SAB de CV - Actinver Research

Revenues of US$1.55 billion were 6% lower YoY, and below our estimates and consensus. Sales underperformed our estimates across all regions, with...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

We highlight Becle given its solid margin performance, ahead of our previous upbeat estimates, even after accounting for non-recurring items

Actinver

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 3Q25 Preview

A meaningful recovery is still pending; soft conditions across most industries remain, with weather headwinds and FX impacting some companies.

Actinver

Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%,...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

On average, our covered Consumer companies grew top line by 8% YoY (vs. 7% forecasted), and EBITDA by 5% (vs. our 3% estimate).

Actinver

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