Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The Mexican transport sector posted a mixed quarterly result, with positive top-line performance supported by: i) tariff improvements; and ii) strategies to diversify revenues.</li><li>However, higher operating costs generated EBITDA margin contractions.</li><li> TRAXION reported the most robust result with double-digit growth in revenues, followed by PINFRA.</li></ul>

The Mexican transport sector posted a mixed quarterly result, with positive top-line performance supported by: i) tariff improvements; and ii) strategies to diversify revenues.However, higher operating costs generated EBITDA margin contractions. TRAXION reported the most robust result with double-digit growth in revenues, followed by PINFRA.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi - Actinver Research

<ul><li>The Mexican transport sector posted a mixed quarterly result, with positive top-line performance supported by a better tariff environment and diversified revenues.</li><li>However, higher operating costs generated EBITDA margin contractions.</li><li> TRAXION reported the most robust result with double-digit growth in revenues, followed by GAP.</li></ul>

The Mexican transport sector posted a mixed quarterly result, with positive top-line performance supported by a better tariff environment and diversified revenues.However, higher operating costs generated EBITDA margin contractions. TRAXION reported the most robust result with double-digit growth in revenues, followed by GAP.

<ul><li>The Mexican transport sector posted another quarterly result with solid top-line performance supported by a better tariff environment and diversified revenues.</li><li>However, higher labor costs result in a margin contraction.</li><li> GAP reported the most robust results, with double-digit revenues and EBITDA expansion, followed by OMA.</li></ul>

The Mexican transport sector posted another quarterly result with solid top-line performance supported by a better tariff environment and diversified revenues.However, higher labor costs result in a margin contraction. GAP reported the most robust results, with double-digit revenues and EBITDA expansion, followed by OMA.

Actinver Research - Transport Sector 3Q25 Review: Solid Top Line but With EBITDA Margin Contraction

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.</li>
<li>Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).</li>
<li>We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. </li>
</ul>


We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects in some companies —with some companies benefitting due to their exposure—.
Adverse weather conditions are also expected to weigh on results. We thus forecast sales growth of 6% (9% on a median basis), with EBITDA growth of 1% (4% on a median basis).
We expect only 3 companies within our coverage to post flat or improving margins. In Consumer, we are keeping our ratings unchanged, with minor adjustments to PTs. 


Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Mexico

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifico SAB de CV operates and maintains airports in the Pacific and central regions of Mexico.

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Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi (GAPB MM)

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi - Actinver Research

The Mexican transport sector posted a mixed quarterly result, with positive top-line performance supported by: i) tariff improvements; and ii)...

Actinver

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi - Actinver Research

The Mexican transport sector posted a mixed quarterly result, with positive top-line performance supported by a better tariff environment and...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Transport Sector 3Q25 Review: Solid Top Line but With EBITDA Margin Contraction

The Mexican transport sector posted another quarterly result with solid top-line performance supported by a better tariff environment and...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Mexico Equity Research: 1Q25 Preview

We are updating our models ahead of 1Q25 Results; calendar headwinds and a slowdown in some industries are expected, along with FX-related effects...

Actinver

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

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