Covering the Mexican Economy, Actinver Research

Actinver

Covering the Mexican Economy

Actinver Research

Actinver is a mexican leading financial group, that generates well being for individuals and companies through advisory services that provides investment management to maintain and grow their wealth.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sales of P$77.6bn were 11.2% higher YoY, supported by FX tailwinds and SSS growth in Mexico; nonetheless, they were 2.3% below our estimates, with a similar underperformance in both regions amid weaker-than-expected SSS.</li>
<li>SSS of 2.9% in Mexico were below our 4% estimate and Walmex (4.3%), yet above the ANTAD (1.9%), supported by ticket growth as traffic was fairly flattish.</li>
<li>In the U.S., SSS grew 0.8%, also below our estimates.</li>
</ul>


Sales of P$77.6bn were 11.2% higher YoY, supported by FX tailwinds and SSS growth in Mexico; nonetheless, they were 2.3% below our estimates, with a similar underperformance in both regions amid weaker-than-expected SSS.
SSS of 2.9% in Mexico were below our 4% estimate and Walmex (4.3%), yet above the ANTAD (1.9%), supported by ticket growth as traffic was fairly flattish.
In the U.S., SSS grew 0.8%, also below our estimates.


Actinver Research - Chedraui 4Q24: Turning the page after weak results (Quick View)

<ul>
<li>For 2025, Chedraui expects SSS of 3.5-4.5% in Mexico and of 2-3% in the U.S., in line and below our estimates, respectively.</li>
<li>In terms of total sales in local currency, the company’s 2025 estimates of 7.5-8.5% for Mexico and 3-4% for the U.S., are also below and in line with our estimates, respectively.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, salesfloor is expected to grow 4.3% and 1.3% in the two countries, respectively, and 3.2% on a consolidated level, close to our forecasts.</li>
</ul>


For 2025, Chedraui expects SSS of 3.5-4.5% in Mexico and of 2-3% in the U.S., in line and below our estimates, respectively.
In terms of total sales in local currency, the company’s 2025 estimates of 7.5-8.5% for Mexico and 3-4% for the U.S., are also below and in line with our estimates, respectively.
Meanwhile, salesfloor is expected to grow 4.3% and 1.3% in the two countries, respectively, and 3.2% on a consolidated level, close to our forecasts.


Actinver Research - Chedraui 2025 Guidance: Mostly positive

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.</li>
<li>Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.</li>
<li>Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. </li>
</ul>


In the midst of the soft top-line performance, management remains cautious, expecting more cost and Capex efficiencies, and a tough consumer environment with consumers remaining more selective as in previous quarters.
Still, most companies reiterated their FY25 guidance, with Bimbo an exception amid different FX conditions vs previously forecasted, and with Chedraui expecting downside risks at the top-line level.
Within Food &amp; Bev, we continue to prefer AC, KOF, FEMSA and Becle (all Outperform). With no major PT changes, we continue to expect these players to outperform peers despite volume pressure and the excise taxes planned for next year. 


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

<ul>
<li>ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.</li>
<li>Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.</li>
<li>The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. </li>
</ul>


ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively, and c.2x YTD averages.
Calendar tailwinds and payday timing drove the strong print despite persistent weather challenges.
The recovery was mainly driven by favorable calendar effects: August included one additional full weekend versus last year, and both bi-weekly paydays coincided with weekends, boosting traffic and consumption. 


Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

<ul>
<li>Soft expectations were met by resilient results.</li>
<li>As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.</li>
<li>Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.</li>
</ul>


Soft expectations were met by resilient results.
As expected, weather headwinds and a weak consumer environment weighed on results.
Nonetheless, while top-line was fairly in line with our estimates, margins contracted less than expected, as companies benefitted from different strategies —along with mix, FX in some cases, and efficiencies— to protect profitability.


Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

Mexico

Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A. de C.V. owns and operates supermarkets, bakeries, restaurants, and fabric stores. The Company provides food, general goods, clothing, and electronic products, as well as supply products to its stores. Grupo Comercial Chedraui serves customers in Mexico and the United States.

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Chedraui (CHDRAUIB MM)

Actinver Research - Chedraui 4Q24: Turning the page after weak results (Quick View)

SSS of 2.9% in Mexico were below our 4% estimate and Walmex (4.3%), yet above the ANTAD (1.9%), supported by ticket growth as traffic was fairly...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Chedraui 2025 Guidance: Mostly positive

For 2025, Chedraui expects SSS of 3.5-4.5% in Mexico and of 2-3% in the U.S., in line and below our estimates, respectively.

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 3Q25 Update

We highlight Becle given its solid margin performance, ahead of our previous upbeat estimates, even after accounting for non-recurring items

Actinver

Actinver Research - Retail Update: ANTAD August SSS and Feedback from Store Tour

ANTAD’s same-store sales (SSS) rose 7.6% in August, while total store sales increased 10.6% YoY, marking a sharp rebound from July’s 2.4% and 4.8%,...

Actinver

Actinver Research - Consumer Post 2Q25 Update

On average, our covered Consumer companies grew top line by 8% YoY (vs. 7% forecasted), and EBITDA by 5% (vs. our 3% estimate).

Actinver

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