Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There has been a sharp increase in unsold housing units in Korea. There were 68k unsold housing units in Korea at the end of 2022, up 278% YoY</li>
<li>Unsold housing units is likely to get worse in Korea in the coming months driven by higher housing units supply, stubbornly high interest rates, and increasing probability of global recession. </li>
<li>We believe there is a sound trading opportunity of shorting a basket of large construction stocks including Hyundai E&amp;C, GS E&amp;C, and Daewoo E&amp;C over the next 6-12 months.</li>
</ul>


There has been a sharp increase in unsold housing units in Korea. There were 68k unsold housing units in Korea at the end of 2022, up 278% YoY
Unsold housing units is likely to get worse in Korea in the coming months driven by higher housing units supply, stubbornly high interest rates, and increasing probability of global recession. 
We believe there is a sound trading opportunity of shorting a basket of large construction stocks including Hyundai E&amp;C, GS E&amp;C, and Daewoo E&amp;C over the next 6-12 months.


A Sharp Increase in Unsold Housing Units in Korea: A Trading Opportunity

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The results are pretty much in line with the predictions, except for Hanwha Aerospace which made it to LARGE instead of Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance.</li>
<li>Assuming that ten names, including Hyundai Marine, were traded in a LONG/SHORT basket with equal weight, the yield from August 17 to the last close would have been 4.6%.</li>
<li>I would still approach with an equal-weighted basket trading until this Thursday. This flow trading usually loses its effect rapidly after rebalancing. So, I wouldn't carry it beyond this Thursday.</li>
</ul>


The results are pretty much in line with the predictions, except for Hanwha Aerospace which made it to LARGE instead of Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance.
Assuming that ten names, including Hyundai Marine, were traded in a LONG/SHORT basket with equal weight, the yield from August 17 to the last close would have been 4.6%.
I would still approach with an equal-weighted basket trading until this Thursday. This flow trading usually loses its effect rapidly after rebalancing. So, I wouldn't carry it beyond this Thursday.


KOSPI Size Index Migration: Official Results & Trading Approach Towards Implementation

GS Engineering & Construction / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Eight stocks are highly likely to migrate with a substantial passive flow. Compared to the early phase of the screening period, GS Engineering &amp; Construction newly made the list.</li>
<li>Most names should show a quite substantial passive flow (x ADTV). In particular, KCC Corp and BGF Retail deserve our special attention for their expected passive impact.</li>
<li>The flow occurs on high potential migration stocks about 20 days before the effective date. So I would start building Long/Short Basket positions with the above eight names around mid-August.</li>
</ul>


Eight stocks are highly likely to migrate with a substantial passive flow. Compared to the early phase of the screening period, GS Engineering &amp; Construction newly made the list.
Most names should show a quite substantial passive flow (x ADTV). In particular, KCC Corp and BGF Retail deserve our special attention for their expected passive impact.
The flow occurs on high potential migration stocks about 20 days before the effective date. So I would start building Long/Short Basket positions with the above eight names around mid-August.


KOSPI Size Index Series Rebalancing in September: Eight Strong Targets

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the recent buying and selling by the Korea National Pension Service (NPS) of Korean stocks.</li>
<li>Of the 176 Korean stocks in which NPS reported changes in ownerships in 2Q 2022, NPS increased its stakes in 115 companies and reduced stakes in 61 companies.</li>
<li>NPS mostly increased stakes in aerospace, defense, construction equipment, and energy sectors while reducing stakes in telecom and tourism related stocks.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the recent buying and selling by the Korea National Pension Service (NPS) of Korean stocks.
Of the 176 Korean stocks in which NPS reported changes in ownerships in 2Q 2022, NPS increased its stakes in 115 companies and reduced stakes in 61 companies.
NPS mostly increased stakes in aerospace, defense, construction equipment, and energy sectors while reducing stakes in telecom and tourism related stocks.


NPS Sells SK Bioscience, Naver, & LG Electronics and Buys Kakao Bank, Lotte Corp, & Samyang Foods

Equity Bottom-Up

Hyundai Engineering & Construction / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market seems to be focusing more on the cost risk increase than on Hyundai E&amp;C's sales growth following the top-line expansion of the urban renewal market.</li>
<li>Instead, the market is looking forward to the possibility that Hyundai E&amp;C's leap forward as a nuclear power solution provider will lead to a growth premium for the share price. </li>
<li>The trading point should be to target this risk when the price is peaking out from the nuclear power theme. Specifically, we need to consider a sector pair long/short setup.</li>
</ul>


The market seems to be focusing more on the cost risk increase than on Hyundai E&amp;C's sales growth following the top-line expansion of the urban renewal market.
Instead, the market is looking forward to the possibility that Hyundai E&amp;C's leap forward as a nuclear power solution provider will lead to a growth premium for the share price. 
The trading point should be to target this risk when the price is peaking out from the nuclear power theme. Specifically, we need to consider a sector pair long/short setup.


Hyundai Engineering & Construction (000720 KS): Trading Points

South Korea

GS Engineering & Construction Corp. contracts civil engineering and architectural works, residential and commercial building constructions, and plant installations.  The Company also builds educational, leisure, distribution, and environmental facilities.

GS Engineering & Construction (006360 KS)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GS Engineering & Construction (006360 KS)

A Sharp Increase in Unsold Housing Units in Korea: A Trading Opportunity

We believe there is a sound trading opportunity of shorting a basket of large construction stocks including Hyundai E&C, GS E&C, and Daewoo E&C...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI Size Index Migration: Official Results & Trading Approach Towards Implementation

This post looks at the official results of the KOSPI Size Index migration in the September rebalancing and discusses the noteworthy flow patterns...

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI Size Index Series Rebalancing in September: Eight Strong Targets

This post filters eight strong targets for long/short basket trading ahead of the September KOSPI Size Index Series rebalancing.

Sanghyun Park

NPS Sells SK Bioscience, Naver, & LG Electronics and Buys Kakao Bank, Lotte Corp, & Samyang Foods

NPS moves the Korean stock market more than any other investor. In this insight, we discuss the recent buying and selling by the Korea National...

Douglas Kim

Hyundai Engineering & Construction (000720 KS): Trading Points

This post discusses the trading points, particularly the viability of a sector peer long/short setup, for Hyundai Engineering and Construction.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)