HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Medical / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Investors should be aware of the increasing prices of TCM raw materials, which could lead to fluctuations in profit margins of TCM companies. Investors should prepare for these potential impacts.</li>
<li>After years of “fast-follow”, we’ve finally seen products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies stand at the center of the stage for the first time in the new generation of ADC.</li>
<li>China Resources Medical's profitability outlook is not promising due to issues within the Chinese healthcare system. The bottom line is P/B above 1 and P/E above 10x.</li>
</ul>


Investors should be aware of the increasing prices of TCM raw materials, which could lead to fluctuations in profit margins of TCM companies. Investors should prepare for these potential impacts.
After years of “fast-follow”, we’ve finally seen products from Chinese pharmaceutical companies stand at the center of the stage for the first time in the new generation of ADC.
China Resources Medical's profitability outlook is not promising due to issues within the Chinese healthcare system. The bottom line is P/B above 1 and P/E above 10x.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) - TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The anti-corruption campaign has significantly accelerated since the beginning of this year. After Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has been involved, the anti-corruption efforts in pharmaceutical/device sectors would be unprecedented.</li>
<li>The main targets are leaders of hospitals/governments. The impact of anti-corruption on companies is indirect. As long as senior management are not investigated/arrested, the impact on stock price isn’t significant.</li>
<li>However, investors not only need to consider the problem of sales growth slowing down in the context of anti-corruption, but also consider whether companies is engaging in financial fraud. </li>
</ul>


The anti-corruption campaign has significantly accelerated since the beginning of this year. After Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has been involved, the anti-corruption efforts in pharmaceutical/device sectors would be unprecedented.
The main targets are leaders of hospitals/governments. The impact of anti-corruption on companies is indirect. As long as senior management are not investigated/arrested, the impact on stock price isn’t significant.
However, investors not only need to consider the problem of sales growth slowing down in the context of anti-corruption, but also consider whether companies is engaging in financial fraud. 


Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook

Beijing Tongrentang Co A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2018 was a watershed for Tongrentang. After the incident of using expired honey was exposed and the corruption scandal afterwards, Tongrentang's performance declined significantly and didn’t recover until 2021.</li>
<li>Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver and also Tongrentang’s core product. Due to the economic downturn, the price increase of Angong Niuhuang Pills could lead to inventory overstocking.</li>
<li>The high growth in 2021 may not be sustained. We lowered our forecast for 2022. Without core competitiveness and high moat, we are conservative about Tongrentang’s long-term outlook.</li>
</ul>


2018 was a watershed for Tongrentang. After the incident of using expired honey was exposed and the corruption scandal afterwards, Tongrentang's performance declined significantly and didn’t recover until 2021.
Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver and also Tongrentang’s core product. Due to the economic downturn, the price increase of Angong Niuhuang Pills could lead to inventory overstocking.
The high growth in 2021 may not be sustained. We lowered our forecast for 2022. Without core competitiveness and high moat, we are conservative about Tongrentang’s long-term outlook.


Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.

<ul>
<li>In terms of the business model,the uniqueness and scarcity of Pien Tze Huang keep the market demand at high level,supporting its strong ability to raise prices and establish high moat.</li>
<li>The concerns on single product risk, scare raw materials and inadequate production capacity would cast a shadow over the Company’ future development.</li>
<li>The breakthrough point lies in whether the Company can make use of the unique advantages generated from "Pien Tze Huang" series to cultivate a second strong growth point in time.</li>
</ul>


In terms of the business model,the uniqueness and scarcity of Pien Tze Huang keep the market demand at high level,supporting its strong ability to raise prices and establish high moat.
The concerns on single product risk, scare raw materials and inadequate production capacity would cast a shadow over the Company’ future development.
The breakthrough point lies in whether the Company can make use of the unique advantages generated from "Pien Tze Huang" series to cultivate a second strong growth point in time.


Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) - The Strength and the Concerns

<ul>
<li>The recent rally in TCM sector is mainly driven by new favorable policies, but it may not be sustainable. It could also squeeze out the development space of innovative drugs. </li>
<li>The concerns on TCM mainly include limited medical insurance fund, VBP on TCM, difficulties in internationalization, unclear adverse reactions and contradiction with ESG investment philosophy.</li>
<li>In China, it's not wise to go against policy.Therefore, a smart play in the short term is to “follow the policy”.We analyzed different TCM varieties to identify good investment opportunities.</li>
</ul>


The recent rally in TCM sector is mainly driven by new favorable policies, but it may not be sustainable. It could also squeeze out the development space of innovative drugs. 
The concerns on TCM mainly include limited medical insurance fund, VBP on TCM, difficulties in internationalization, unclear adverse reactions and contradiction with ESG investment philosophy.
In China, it's not wise to go against policy.Therefore, a smart play in the short term is to “follow the policy”.We analyzed different TCM varieties to identify good investment opportunities.


The Concerns and Outlook About the Recent Rally in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Sector

China

GuangYuYuan Chinese Herbal Medicine Co., Ltd. develops and manufactures Chinese raw material medicines, Western raw material medicines, tablets, capsules, injections, and other pharmaceutical products.  The Company also provides advertising services.

Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicn (600771 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Guangyuyuan Chinese Herbal Medicn (600771 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) - TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

Investors should watch for rising TCM raw material prices. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are rising in ADC.Caution with China Resources...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook

The share prices of China healthcare are now plummeting due to anti-corruption campaign, which will reach a climax in 23H2 (We'll post updates in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver. Due to economic downturn, its price hike will lead to inventory overstocking. Without high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) - The Strength and the Concerns

We analyzed the business model of Pien Tze Huang, which is mainly due to its uniqueness and scarcity that build high moat. But it still has to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The Concerns and Outlook About the Recent Rally in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Sector

The insight mainly analyzed the logic behind the recent rally in TCM sector, the policy impact, the concerns on limited resources, VBP,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.30) - TCM Companies Witness Soaring Costs, Rising Stars in ADC, 1515.HK

​Investors should watch for rising TCM raw material prices. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are rising in ADC.Caution with China Resources...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Anti-Corruption in China Healthcare – the Impact and the Outlook

The share prices of China healthcare are now plummeting due to anti-corruption campaign, which will reach a climax in 23H2 (We'll post updates in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Beijing Tongrentang (600085.CH)- Neither Brand Nor Angong Niuhuang Pills Can Secure Future Prospects

Angong Niuhuang Pill is the major performance driver. Due to economic downturn, its price hike will lead to inventory overstocking. Without high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical (600436.CH) - The Strength and the Concerns

We analyzed the business model of Pien Tze Huang, which is mainly due to its uniqueness and scarcity that build high moat. But it still has to...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The Concerns and Outlook About the Recent Rally in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Sector

The insight mainly analyzed the logic behind the recent rally in TCM sector, the policy impact, the concerns on limited resources, VBP,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Investors should watch for rising TCM raw material prices. Chinese pharmaceutical companies are rising in ADC.Caution with China Resources...