External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.</li><li>Tepid 4% growth in 2024 minimum wages may lead to further downtrading; we expect the SKT category to continue gaining share.</li><li>We maintain OW rating as the sector’s 10.6x FY24F PE (24% disc. to avg 3yr PE) has priced in the downside, with cushion from 6-11% div. yield.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.Tepid 4% growth in 2024 minimum wages may lead to further downtrading; we expect the SKT category to continue gaining share.We maintain OW rating as the sector’s 10.6x FY24F PE (24% disc. to avg 3yr PE) has priced in the downside, with cushion from 6-11% div. yield.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cigarette: Attractive Value Proposition Despite Lingering Regulatory Headwinds...

Cigarette: Attractive Value Proposition Despite Lingering Regulatory Headwinds

<ul><li>Our cigarette price survey revealed no significant movements in retail prices during August to Sept 2023, likely given the soft/negative volume growth (especially in the tier-1 category).</li><li>However, we expect higher ASPs to still translate to better margins and earnings growth in 3Q23 (+36% yoy), especially for GGRM.</li><li>Maintain Overweight. Price tracker: no significant movements in the past few months. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our cigarette price survey revealed no significant movements in retail prices during August to Sept 2023, likely given the soft/negative volume growth (especially in the tier-1 category).However, we expect higher ASPs to still translate to better margins and earnings growth in 3Q23 (+36% yoy), especially for GGRM.Maintain Overweight. Price tracker: no significant movements in the past few months. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cigarette - Upbeat 3Q23 yoy earnings growth; attractive yield play

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nusantara-sejahtera-raya-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39908:1" rel="noopener">Cinema XXI</a> raised around US$150m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing at the bottom-end.</li>
<li>Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company's past performance and undertaken a peer comparison and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Cinema XXI raised around US$150m in its Indonesia IPO, after pricing at the bottom-end.
Cinema XXI is a premium theatrical exhibition, F&amp;B and experience company. It is the largest cinema chain operator in Indonesia.
We have looked at the company's past performance and undertaken a peer comparison and valuation in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.


Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO Trading - Should Be a Steady Listing

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">PCOMP INDEX</a> in August.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.</li>
<li>There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the LQ45/IDX30 were announced last week and will be implemented Monday. The PSE also announced that there would be no changes for the PCOMP INDEX in August.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs on Monday, most notably for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX), STAR50 INDEX, the NIFTY family of indices and the KRX New Deal indices.
There were inflows to China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan and Korea focused ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

Indonesia

PT Gudang Garam Tbk manufactures and distributes cigarettes and operates activities related to the cigarette industry. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the paper-related activities.

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Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)

Cigarette: Attractive Value Proposition Despite Lingering Regulatory Headwinds...

FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.

BRI Danareksa Research

Cigarette: Attractive Value Proposition Despite Lingering Regulatory Headwinds

FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.

BRI Danareksa Research

Cigarette - Upbeat 3Q23 yoy earnings growth; attractive yield play

Our cigarette price survey revealed no significant movements in retail prices during August to Sept 2023, likely given the soft/negative volume...

BRI Danareksa Research

Nusantara Sejahtera Raya (Cinema XXI) IPO Trading - Should Be a Steady Listing

Nusantara Sejahtera (Cinema XXI) raised around US$150m in its Indonesia IPO. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: LQ45/IDX30, FXI, New Deal, KOSPI, KQ150, LG Energy, IN Float, TTMT

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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