Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Gulf Energy Development  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Core profit grew strongly in 4Q25/2025, driven by higher contributions from ADVANC and the power portfolio.</li><li>We still favor GULF for its integrated portfolio (power, gas, infrastructure, digital), ecosystem synergy (KBANK stake increased to 10%), strong customer data platform linking energy–digital–virtual banking, and data center expansion.</li><li>In 2025, core profit rose to Bt28.8bn (+33% YoY), driven by 1) a 40% YoY increase in associate contributions (ADVANC, HKP, Jackson); 2) c.Bt1.19bn dividend income from KBANK; 3) full-year earnings from GPD Units 3–4 and added contributions from solar/solar BESS (COD: late 2024–25); and 4) LNG import gains.</li></ul>

Core profit grew strongly in 4Q25/2025, driven by higher contributions from ADVANC and the power portfolio.We still favor GULF for its integrated portfolio (power, gas, infrastructure, digital), ecosystem synergy (KBANK stake increased to 10%), strong customer data platform linking energy–digital–virtual banking, and data center expansion.In 2025, core profit rose to Bt28.8bn (+33% YoY), driven by 1) a 40% YoY increase in associate contributions (ADVANC, HKP, Jackson); 2) c.Bt1.19bn dividend income from KBANK; 3) full-year earnings from GPD Units 3–4 and added contributions from solar/solar BESS (COD: late 2024–25); and 4) LNG import gains.

GULF DEVELOPMENT Plc. (GULF): 4Q25 NP Beat; Core In Line — Strong Portfolio...

<ul><li>Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest rate fell from 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.</li><li>The policy rate cut from 2.50% in 3Q24 to 1.50% in 3Q25 has filtered through to listed companies, lowering their effective interest rate from its peak of 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.</li><li>The time-interest-earned (TIE) ratio, calculated as EBIT divided by interest expenses, rose from 2.4x in 4Q24 to 3.4x in 3Q25, while financial leverage declined from 1.7x in 4Q24 to 1.4x in 2Q25.</li></ul>

Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest rate fell from 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.The policy rate cut from 2.50% in 3Q24 to 1.50% in 3Q25 has filtered through to listed companies, lowering their effective interest rate from its peak of 4.6% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25.The time-interest-earned (TIE) ratio, calculated as EBIT divided by interest expenses, rose from 2.4x in 4Q24 to 3.4x in 3Q25, while financial leverage declined from 1.7x in 4Q24 to 1.4x in 2Q25.

Special Report - Lower Rates Lift SET 20063 EPS; Top Picks: GULF, BCPG, EGCO, LH

<ul><li>2Q25 core profit was strong, and net profit rose significantly YoY and QoQ from gains on bargain purchases from business consolidation.</li><li>We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts and our projection of 2Y core EPS growth at a 12% CAGR, outperforming the sector.</li><li>We also have a positive view on the current valuation with substantial upside potential from the new 12M FV of Bt64.75, based on a required return of 2.9% after lowering our house view’s MRP assumption to 5.26% (previously Bt58.00, 3.2%, and 6.83%). </li></ul>

2Q25 core profit was strong, and net profit rose significantly YoY and QoQ from gains on bargain purchases from business consolidation.We maintain our 2025-27E core profit forecasts and our projection of 2Y core EPS growth at a 12% CAGR, outperforming the sector.We also have a positive view on the current valuation with substantial upside potential from the new 12M FV of Bt64.75, based on a required return of 2.9% after lowering our house view’s MRP assumption to 5.26% (previously Bt58.00, 3.2%, and 6.83%). 

Gulf Development - Portfolio, Earnings, and Growth Potential

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The US and Iran have signaled readiness to negotiate an end to the conflict.</li><li>Hopes of easing Middle East tensions support large-cap stocks (DELTA, ADVANC, AOT) and tourism/airline sectors, but weigh on energy and refinery stocks.</li><li>The government is preparing the “Thai Chuay Thai Plus” program in May to mitigate high energy costs, which is positive for consumer and finance stocks.</li></ul>

The US and Iran have signaled readiness to negotiate an end to the conflict.Hopes of easing Middle East tensions support large-cap stocks (DELTA, ADVANC, AOT) and tourism/airline sectors, but weigh on energy and refinery stocks.The government is preparing the “Thai Chuay Thai Plus” program in May to mitigate high energy costs, which is positive for consumer and finance stocks.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. April 1, 2026

<ul><li>We expect strong 2Q25E core profit and standout QoQ net profit growth, supported by a gain from bargain purchases.</li><li>We revise up our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by 8-9% and raise our 12M FV to Bt58.00 (from Bt53.75).</li><li>We maintain our Buy rating, reflecting our positive view on the current valuation and a 2Y core EPS CAGR of 12%, which stands out compared to peers, amid neutral tactical risk.</li></ul>

We expect strong 2Q25E core profit and standout QoQ net profit growth, supported by a gain from bargain purchases.We revise up our 2025-27E core profit forecasts by 8-9% and raise our 12M FV to Bt58.00 (from Bt53.75).We maintain our Buy rating, reflecting our positive view on the current valuation and a 2Y core EPS CAGR of 12%, which stands out compared to peers, amid neutral tactical risk.

Gulf Development - Strong 2Q25E Core Profit/Outstanding NP

Thailand

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

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Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)

GULF DEVELOPMENT Plc. (GULF): 4Q25 NP Beat; Core In Line — Strong Portfolio...

We still favor GULF for its integrated portfolio (power, gas, infrastructure, digital), ecosystem synergy (KBANK stake increased to 10%), strong...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report - Lower Rates Lift SET 20063 EPS; Top Picks: GULF, BCPG, EGCO, LH

Over a year of declining interest rates has saved SET-listed companies more than Bt14bn per quarter in interest expenses, as the effective interest...

Krungthai XSpring

Gulf Development - Portfolio, Earnings, and Growth Potential

2Q25 core profit was strong, and net profit rose significantly YoY and QoQ from gains on bargain purchases from business consolidation.

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. April 1, 2026

The government is preparing the “Thai Chuay Thai Plus” program in May to mitigate high energy costs, which is positive for consumer and finance...

Krungthai XSpring

Gulf Development - Strong 2Q25E Core Profit/Outstanding NP

We maintain our Buy rating, reflecting our positive view on the current valuation and a 2Y core EPS CAGR of 12%, which stands out compared to...

Krungthai XSpring

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