HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.</li>
<li>A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.</li>
<li>If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.</li>
</ul>


The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.
A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.
If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.


Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

<ul>
<li>Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.</li>
<li>Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.</li>
<li>Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Baicha Baidao</a>.</li>
</ul>


Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.
Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.
Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to Baicha Baidao.


Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.</li><li>Fad cycles may or may not have legs - see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.</li><li>Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.</li></ul>

As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.Fad cycles may or may not have legs - see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.

Flagging a Recent IPO - Chagee (CHA) - Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial / Event-Driven

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK)</a> raised around US$330m in its Hong Kong IPO, in April 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon</li>
<li>SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&amp;S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market in 2023, with a market share of 6.8%</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) raised around US$330m in its Hong Kong IPO, in April 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon
SBBI sells new-style tea drinks through its ChaPanda stores. According to F&amp;S, SBBI ranked third in China’s new-style tea shop market in 2023, with a market share of 6.8%
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial IPO Lockup - Steep Losses for Pre-IPO Investors

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>  raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share. </li>
<li>Chagee (CG) is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics and added a new peer to compare with  </li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share. 
Chagee (CG) is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics and added a new peer to compare with  


Chagee IPO Trading: Delisting Overhang but Much Cheaper than Peers

China

Guming Holdings Limited is a holding company primarily engaged in the production and sale of freshly made beverages through its "Good me" brand. It operates a franchised tea store retail network, offering fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee beverages. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Guming (1364 HK)

Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The sharp rise of Auntea Jenny on its IPO debut reflects investors' confidence in its growth potential in China's lower-tier markets. But high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Flagging a Recent IPO - Chagee (CHA) - Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers

As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding...

Acid Investments

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial IPO Lockup - Steep Losses for Pre-IPO Investors

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) raised around US$330m in its Hong Kong IPO, in April 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to...

Sumeet Singh

Chagee IPO Trading: Delisting Overhang but Much Cheaper than Peers

Chagee raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share. In this note, we talk about the trading...

Nicholas Tan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

​Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The sharp rise of Auntea Jenny on its IPO debut reflects investors' confidence in its growth potential in China's lower-tier markets. But high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Flagging a Recent IPO - Chagee (CHA) - Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers

As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding...

Acid Investments

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial IPO Lockup - Steep Losses for Pre-IPO Investors

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial (2555 HK) raised around US$330m in its Hong Kong IPO, in April 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to...

Sumeet Singh

Chagee IPO Trading: Delisting Overhang but Much Cheaper than Peers

Chagee raised around US$411m in its US IPO, after pricing the deal at the top of the range at US$28/share. In this note, we talk about the trading...

Nicholas Tan

Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...