Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma</li>
<li>In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,200+ insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
In this cut, we look through the bubble in Chinese tea company listings, the recent entertainment provided by Japanese M&amp;A situations and the varied ways analysts look at TSMC on Smartkarma
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you think should be highlighted next time


Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auntea-jenny-shanghai-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40891:1" rel="noopener">Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)</a>'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. </li>
<li>At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a>, but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. </li>
<li>Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.</li>
</ul>



Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (2589 HK)'s IPO price is set at HK$113.12, which is aggressive based on its financial and operational metrics. 
At 29.3x FY25F PER, Auntea Jenny's multiple is close to Mixue Group (2097 HK) and Guming Holdings (1364 HK), but it is significantly smaller in scale and lower in profitability. 
Our fair value of 25x PER and 5.3x P/B for FY25 means a share price of HK$94.70-96.68. Initial euphoria may inflate its debut, but we will exit on the rally.


Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>Chagee is a high-growth, premium-focused tea beverage chain rapidly expanding its global footprint, particularly in China and Southeast Asia, with plans to further penetrate the U.S. market.</li>
 <li>The company differentiates itself through a focus on high-quality, fresh ingredients and a brand identity rooted in traditional Chinese tea culture, appealing to health-conscious and culturally-aware young consumers.</li>
 <li>While demonstrating explosive revenue growth and a strong brand, the company faces significant risks from intense competition in the crowded new-style tea market, leading to recent pressure on same-store sales and profitability.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  Chagee is a high-growth, premium-focused tea beverage chain rapidly expanding its global footprint, particularly in China and Southeast Asia, with plans to further penetrate the U.S. market.
  The company differentiates itself through a focus on high-quality, fresh ingredients and a brand identity rooted in traditional Chinese tea culture, appealing to health-conscious and culturally-aware young consumers.
  While demonstrating explosive revenue growth and a strong brand, the company faces significant risks from intense competition in the crowded new-style tea market, leading to recent pressure on same-store sales and profitability.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Chagee Holdings (CHA US) - Apr 2026

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

<ul>
<li>Chagee’s IPO surged early but collapsed, falling nearly 70% from its debut high amid intense market and China-based issuer volatility.</li>
<li>Weak U.S. sponsorship and a sales miss triggered sustained selling pressure, pushing CHA far below its $28 issue price.</li>
<li>The deal highlights 2025’s unforgiving IPO environment, where consumer and China-linked listings face sharp downside risk when momentum fades.</li>
</ul>


Chagee’s IPO surged early but collapsed, falling nearly 70% from its debut high amid intense market and China-based issuer volatility.
Weak U.S. sponsorship and a sales miss triggered sustained selling pressure, pushing CHA far below its $28 issue price.
The deal highlights 2025’s unforgiving IPO environment, where consumer and China-linked listings face sharp downside risk when momentum fades.


Chagee Holdings (CHA) Six-Month Summary: Stark Warning on Volatility, China-Based IPO Risk

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>TOP STORIES Cover Story: War in the Gulf Triggers Global Energy Shock The war in the Middle East, which is entering its fourth week, has opened a dangerous new front: the region’s energy system.</li><li>In Depth: China Enacts Historic Environmental Code to Police Green Development Following the passage of its Civil Code, China has given birth to the second statutory code in its legislative history.</li><li>FINANCE &amp; ECONOMY China Fiscal Spending Pace Hits Five-Year High China front-loaded fiscal spending at the fastest pace for the start of a year in five years, underscoring efforts to support growth even as revenue remained subdued.</li></ul>

TOP STORIES Cover Story: War in the Gulf Triggers Global Energy Shock The war in the Middle East, which is entering its fourth week, has opened a dangerous new front: the region’s energy system.In Depth: China Enacts Historic Environmental Code to Police Green Development Following the passage of its Civil Code, China has given birth to the second statutory code in its legislative history.FINANCE &amp; ECONOMY China Fiscal Spending Pace Hits Five-Year High China front-loaded fiscal spending at the fastest pace for the start of a year in five years, underscoring efforts to support growth even as revenue remained subdued.

CX Daily: War in the Gulf Triggers Global Energy Shock 

United States

Chagee Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a wide range of freshly-made tea drinks. Chagee Holdings serves customers worldwide.

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Chagee Holdings (CHA US)

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Primer: Chagee Holdings (CHA US) - Apr 2026

Chagee is a high-growth, premium-focused tea beverage chain rapidly expanding its global footprint, particularly in China and Southeast Asia,...

αSK Primers

Chagee Holdings (CHA) Six-Month Summary: Stark Warning on Volatility, China-Based IPO Risk

Chagee's IPO soared then plummeted, showcasing the harsh reality of the 2025 IPO market for consumer and China-based companies.

IPO Boutique

CX Daily: War in the Gulf Triggers Global Energy Shock

TOP STORIES Cover Story: War in the Gulf Triggers Global Energy Shock The war in the Middle East, which is entering its fourth week, has opened a...

Caixin Global

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Curator's Cut: "Bubble" Tea, Japan M&A 🍿& TSMC from Different Lenses

​Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Pranav Rao

Auntea Jenny (2589 HK): What Is the Fair Value?

​Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Primer: Chagee Holdings (CHA US) - Apr 2026

Chagee is a high-growth, premium-focused tea beverage chain rapidly expanding its global footprint, particularly in China and Southeast Asia,...

αSK Primers

Chagee Holdings (CHA) Six-Month Summary: Stark Warning on Volatility, China-Based IPO Risk

​Chagee's IPO soared then plummeted, showcasing the harsh reality of the 2025 IPO market for consumer and China-based companies.

IPO Boutique

CX Daily: War in the Gulf Triggers Global Energy Shock

TOP STORIES Cover Story: War in the Gulf Triggers Global Energy Shock The war in the Middle East, which is entering its fourth week, has opened a...

Caixin Global

Introducing the Curator's Cut fortnightly newsletter, featuring interesting themes from the Smartkarma network. Share your thoughts!

Auntea Jenny's IPO price of HK$113.12 is aggressive based on financial and operational metrics. We arrive at a fair value estimate of HK$94.70...

Chagee's IPO soared then plummeted, showcasing the harsh reality of the 2025 IPO market for consumer and China-based companies.