Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
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<td style="width: 726.047px;">Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 726.047px;">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/213/768/original/image_768460236451623962508577.png?1623962508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="213768"></figure>

Source: Our analysis
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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In the spirit of the long-awaited UEFA Euro 2020, we present our inaugural "China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook", which summarizes our views on the names that are best positioned to navigate an environment of progressively slower credit growth, tighter liquidity and rising defaults. 
Our screen consists of 100+ stocks in the A/H share universe, as well as a select number of international / non-traditional names that have significant exposures to China's financial system. We have a preference for larger-cap and liquid names, which are then filtered by our opinions on their fundamentals, value, momentum and recent trading volumes. We also try to make our selections versatile and less vulnerable to single-factor movements.
Each player's position on the pitch and the team formation itself convey incremental information about our thoughts on the sector's performance over a three to six-month horizon. To the extent possible, we intend to update our ideas on a periodic basis. This provides a feedback loop with our other ongoing research on the industry.
However, our team selections are not investment recommendations. Instead, they are meant to give structure to our analysis. The playbook allows us to articulate our views on the sector in a timely, concise manner. Our objective is to ensure we don't throw the baby out with the bathwater as sentiments on the sector remain bleak.
With that out of the way, the following is our starting XI. We will dive deeper into our rationale for our selections in the remainder of this insight (Exhibit 1).



Exhibit 1: China Financials | Silver Linings Playbook





Source: Our analysis




Related Insights
China Macro: Consumers Remain on the Sidelines, as Their Home Equity Grows 
Glut and Famine: We Might See Snow in China This Summer 
China Macro: PPI Peaks, while CPI Eases Tightening Fears 
China Macro: Exports Disappoint, but It's Still Early in the Game 
Glut and Famine: China's Monetary Conditions a Notch Tighter in May 
ICBC: The Bond Identity | A Zero-Growth Dividend Discount Story 
BOC Aviation (2588 HK): The Stars Don't Look Bigger, but They Do Look Brighter

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jul 3rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD406,502m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY, ZHEJIANG XINAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRIAL, GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, OMNIVISOIN INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BOE.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jul 3rd. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD406,502m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY, ZHEJIANG XINAN CHEMICAL INDUSTRIAL, GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, OMNIVISOIN INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, BOE.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 3rd): TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY, BOE

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on XPENG, COSCO SHIP ENGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, PDD, GCL TECHNOLOGY, Full Truck Alliance, KUNLUN TECH.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on XPENG, COSCO SHIP ENGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, PDD, GCL TECHNOLOGY, Full Truck Alliance, KUNLUN TECH.


MS-China Index Earning Revision (Jun): XPENG, COSCO SHIP ENGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, PDD, GCL TECHNOLOGY

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jun 18th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD391,810m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, BOE, FUJIAN TORCH ELECTRON TECHNOLOGY, LEADER HARMONIOUS DRIVE SYSTEMS.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jun 18th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD391,810m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, BOE, FUJIAN TORCH ELECTRON TECHNOLOGY, LEADER HARMONIOUS DRIVE SYSTEMS.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 18th): GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, BOE

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jun 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD391,810m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, BOE, FUJIAN TORCH ELECTRON TECHNOLOGY, LEADER HARMONIOUS DRIVE SYSTEMS.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jun 12th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD391,810m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, BOE, FUJIAN TORCH ELECTRON TECHNOLOGY, LEADER HARMONIOUS DRIVE SYSTEMS.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 12th): GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, BOE

China

Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Haitong Securities serves clients globally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH)

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Jun): XPENG, COSCO SHIP ENGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, PDD, GCL TECHNOLOGY

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in XPENG, COSCO SHIP ENGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, PDD, GCL TECHNOLOGY, Full...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Financials: Silver Linings Playbook

Our Silver Linings Playbook outlines our views on the China financials names that are most likely to remain resilient in the face of macro...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 3rd): TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY, BOE

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted TONGHUA GOLDEN-HORSE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY (000766 CH),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Jun): XPENG, COSCO SHIP ENGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, PDD, GCL TECHNOLOGY

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Jun 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in XPENG, COSCO SHIP ENGY, MEITUAN, TENCENT, PDD, GCL TECHNOLOGY, Full...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 18th): GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, BOE

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES (601211 CH), EAST MONEY INFORMATION...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 12th): GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES, EAST MONEY INFORMATION, BOE

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES (601211 CH), EAST MONEY INFORMATION...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM