IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Guotai Junan International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>/GJTAI announced a preconditional scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-haitong-securities-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK)</a> at HK$3.00, a 44.2% premium to the last close. The offer price is final. </li>
<li>HKEx privatisations, which require regulatory approvals, have recently been shunned. However, the precondition related to NDRC and Shanghai SASAC regulatory approvals is low risk. </li>
<li>While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating of peers, this should get done. </li>
</ul>



Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)/GJTAI announced a preconditional scheme offer from Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK) at HK$3.00, a 44.2% premium to the last close. The offer price is final. 
HKEx privatisations, which require regulatory approvals, have recently been shunned. However, the precondition related to NDRC and Shanghai SASAC regulatory approvals is low risk. 
While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating of peers, this should get done. 


Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Precon Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities at HK$3.00

Founder of Antler Capital

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.</li>
<li>The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.</li>
<li>We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. </li>
</ul>


We welcome the regulators' formalization of financial asset classifications. This will gradually remove regulatory arbitrage and pave the way for further bank reintermediation.
The new rules will likely have limited impacts on bond holdings that have active secondary markets, but illiquid debt investment plans will come under more intense regulatory and auditor scrutiny.
We see an impact of 10-15bp on the listed banks' reported NPL ratios. That said, a handful of banks may be at risk of capital shortages if the environment worsens. 


Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

<ul>
<li>The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  </li>
<li>SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. </li>
<li>As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.</li>
</ul>


The Jan. PMI readings corroborate what investors had already known over the break. But it is noteworthy that SMEs appear much less upbeat than large corporations.  
SMEs account for 60% of GDP and an even higher proportion of job creation. Policy support has been keeping many of them afloat throughout the pandemic. 
As the deadline on the PBOC's SME support program is fast approaching, small regional banks may bear the brunt of the impact on the financial system.


China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

<ul>
<li>We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.</li>
<li>Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.</li>
<li>We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.</li>
</ul>


We expect to see a strong start to the week for China financials names, with sentiments buoyed by upbeat consumer spending data over the new year holiday.
Early signs point to relatively loose conditions in the interbank market as trading resumes across the board on Monday. The central bank's easing bias will likely continue.
We see more momentum for the sector ahead of Q4 earnings (brokers &gt; insurers &gt; banks). Stock selection will become more important thereafter.


China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jul 31st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD350,312m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in ANHUI JIANGHUAI AUTOMOBILE, BLUEPARK NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGY, CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, Mindray, GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of A-share stocks as of Jul 31st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD350,312m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in ANHUI JIANGHUAI AUTOMOBILE, BLUEPARK NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGY, CHINA MINSHENG BANKING, Mindray, GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES.


A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 31st): ANHUI JIANGHUAI AUTOMOBILE, BLUEPARK NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

China

Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Haitong Securities serves clients globally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Guotai Haitong Securities (601211 CH)

Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Precon Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities at HK$3.00

While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating...

Arun George

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

For the most part, the Jan PMI gauges were in line with investor expectations, although the more pessimistic SME sector may be a cause for concern...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Precon Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities at HK$3.00

While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating...

Arun George

Chinese Banks: New Asset Classification Rules | You Can Run but You Can't Hide

New asset classification rules have officially been announced. We see this as a long-term positive for the sector as regulators continue to bring...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China's Micro Loan Market: Key Takeaways from the Jan PMI

For the most part, the Jan PMI gauges were in line with investor expectations, although the more pessimistic SME sector may be a cause for concern...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

China Financials Weekly: Jan 30 | A Bubbly Opening

We expect a strong start to the week for the China financials space, after a new year holiday that confirms investors' hopes for a speedy recovery...

Stanley Tsai, CFA

A-Share Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 31st): ANHUI JIANGHUAI AUTOMOBILE, BLUEPARK NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

We analyzed A-share margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted ANHUI JIANGHUAI AUTOMOBILE (600418 CH), BLUEPARK NEW ENERGY...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM