Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One of the main indicators to watch is the new starts Gross Floor Area (new starts GFA). This is a short discussion note on what we expect to happen to 'commercial residential' new starts GFA in China for 2016-2020, based on the analysis of historical data on new home sales, prices, completions, new starts and land sales. Latest data indicates a new…

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim China’s growth as being relatively strong, we feel compelled to disagree. It is not relatively strong compared with debt. The mirror image of the boon in credit for banks in China over the past several years is a high level of liabilities at the corporate level. If these same companies are not seeing higher growth, there is no way to keep pace with…

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim China’s growth as being relatively strong, we feel compelled to disagree. It is not relatively strong compared with debt. The mirror image of the boon in credit for banks in China over the past several years is a high level of liabilities at the corporate level. If these same companies are not seeing higher growth, there is no way to keep pace with…

China - Growth Must Be Fantastic to Support Loan Payments

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks.  The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY forcing the PBOC to engage in regular interventions to keep them close enough to parity. US non-farm payrolls numbers came in on Friday at a surprisingly low 38,000 gain and revised down the previous two months by almost 60,000. This caused the CNY and CNH to jump more than 300 pips with the CNH trading at a small premium near the end.  Though the market…

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks.  The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY forcing the PBOC to engage in regular interventions to keep them close enough to parity. US non-farm payrolls numbers came in on Friday at a surprisingly low 38,000 gain and revised down the previous two months by almost 60,000. This caused the CNY and CNH to jump more than 300 pips with the CNH trading at a small premium near the end.  Though the market…

What Is the Path for the RMB Going Forward?

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

WK 23: Mon 6 Jun 2016. (As always thoughts/comments welcome…)Global Macro Take: WK 23 – RBA, RBNZ but really all about US Bonds<ul><li>Market will continue to digest the huge NFP miss 38k a vs. 160k e, with implications into the USD &amp; the Fed</li><li>Yellen’s round table today on Economic Outlook &amp; Monetary Policy will be heavily watched</li><li>Busy week on the central bank front with decisions due out from the like of RBA, RBI, RBNZ &amp; that’s just a taste…</li><li>US bonds, the consensus long trade it seems, what (if anything) are real rates telling us? Nobody seems to believe in US inflation</li></ul>

WK 23: Mon 6 Jun 2016. (As always thoughts/comments welcome…)Global Macro Take: WK 23 – RBA, RBNZ but really all about US BondsMarket will continue to digest the huge NFP miss 38k a vs. 160k e, with implications into the USD &amp; the FedYellen’s round table today on Economic Outlook &amp; Monetary Policy will be heavily watchedBusy week on the central bank front with decisions due out from the like of RBA, RBI, RBNZ &amp; that’s just a taste…US bonds, the consensus long trade it seems, what (if anything) are real rates telling us? Nobody seems to believe in US inflation

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK 23. Mon 6 Jun. The Global Macro Take: RBA, RBNZ but Really All About US Bonds

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  In that period, people were concerned about where to deposit their money for safe keeping, not which bank would have the best earnings.  It was a period of bailing out banks, in the US and Europe.  In the case of China, it reacted to the GFC with astounding loan growth. The government basically forced banks to lend.  In year 2009, bank credit rose by 37% and followed by…

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  In that period, people were concerned about where to deposit their money for safe keeping, not which bank would have the best earnings.  It was a period of bailing out banks, in the US and Europe.  In the case of China, it reacted to the GFC with astounding loan growth. The government basically forced banks to lend.  In year 2009, bank credit rose by 37% and followed by…

China - Distress About To Breach Global Financial Crisis Trough

China

Guotai Junan Securities Co.,Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Junan Securities Company serves clients throughout China.

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Guotai Junan Securities (601211 CH)

Projecting Residential New Starts in China

China property sector, and within it mainly the residential sector (i.e. new developments), are an important source of demand for commodities. One...

Robert Ciemniak

China - Growth Must Be Fantastic to Support Loan Payments

We all intuitively understand the concept of economic growth and keeping current with debt. But where so many commentators continue to proclaim...

Daniel Tabbush

What Is the Path for the RMB Going Forward?

Anticipating a rate hike, the PBOC had been steering the RMB weaker in recent weeks. The CNH has consistently been trading weaker than the CNY...

Christopher Balding

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK 23. Mon 6 Jun. The Global Macro Take: RBA, RBNZ but Really All About US Bonds

WK 23: Mon 6 Jun 2016. (As always thoughts/comments welcome…)Global Macro Take: WK 23 – RBA, RBNZ but really all about US Bonds Market will...

Kay Van-Petersen

China - Distress About To Breach Global Financial Crisis Trough

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In that period,...

Daniel Tabbush

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