Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  In that period, people were concerned about where to deposit their money for safe keeping, not which bank would have the best earnings.  It was a period of bailing out banks, in the US and Europe.  In the case of China, it reacted to the GFC with astounding loan growth. The government basically forced banks to lend.  In year 2009, bank credit rose by 37% and followed by…

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).  In that period, people were concerned about where to deposit their money for safe keeping, not which bank would have the best earnings.  It was a period of bailing out banks, in the US and Europe.  In the case of China, it reacted to the GFC with astounding loan growth. The government basically forced banks to lend.  In year 2009, bank credit rose by 37% and followed by…

China - Distress About To Breach Global Financial Crisis Trough

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

Chinese bank balance sheets are getting more and more interesting.  The burgeoning bonds-for-loans programme and the nascent equity-for-loans programme will leave Chinese banks with an ever growing maturity mismatch on their balance sheet.  The sale of non-performing loans, that is also gaining momentum, should help keep bank balance sheets more liquid.  Assuming that regulations are changed to alter the reserve requirements and other regulations around banks holding direct equity stakes, then…

Chinese bank balance sheets are getting more and more interesting.  The burgeoning bonds-for-loans programme and the nascent equity-for-loans programme will leave Chinese banks with an ever growing maturity mismatch on their balance sheet.  The sale of non-performing loans, that is also gaining momentum, should help keep bank balance sheets more liquid.  Assuming that regulations are changed to alter the reserve requirements and other regulations around banks holding direct equity stakes, then…

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Today's house price indices data from SouFun-CREIS on new home sales in China show accelerated growth for 100 cities overall index of 10% year-on-year in May, compared to 9% in April. Shenzhen continues to stand out on 12-month basis with 59% increase, ahead of Huizhou and Dongguan (both in Guangdong province) with 35% and 34%, respectively. On sequential month-on-month basis, the 100 cities index increased by 1.7% compared to 1.45% in April. Xiamen and Hefei had strongest sequential…

Today's house price indices data from SouFun-CREIS on new home sales in China show accelerated growth for 100 cities overall index of 10% year-on-year in May, compared to 9% in April. Shenzhen continues to stand out on 12-month basis with 59% increase, ahead of Huizhou and Dongguan (both in Guangdong province) with 35% and 34%, respectively. On sequential month-on-month basis, the 100 cities index increased by 1.7% compared to 1.45% in April. Xiamen and Hefei had strongest sequential…

Editor, Bixmoor

Nick Fielding

Editor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

China's 13th Five Year Plan aims to re-balance the economy, to encourage innovation and to clean up the environment. But a major assessment of the plan finds considerable room for doubt, whilst offering insights into possible areas for investment.

China's 13th Five Year Plan aims to re-balance the economy, to encourage innovation and to clean up the environment. But a major assessment of the plan finds considerable room for doubt, whilst offering insights into possible areas for investment.

Growth with Volatility - The Next Five Years in China

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100<ul><li>Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…</li><li>DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by now</li><li>As per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleep</li><li>Jun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a week</li><li>WK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event</li></ul>

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100Again its all about the US Dollar &amp; upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters…DXY at 95.52 +0.20% for WK 21, is up 4 wks in a row – but you still ain’t seen nothing yet, we should be in the 96-97 range by nowAs per the thesis from last week, Fed implied rate hike probabilities continue to grind up – yet year end expectations of one &amp; two hikes still too low at 74% &amp; 25%. Market is still asleepJun now has a 30% chance, whilst Jul (KVP’s pick) has now moved from c. 48% to 54% in the span of a weekWK ahead will be filled with Final PMIs, US ISM will be key as will NFP. ECB? Non-event

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100

China

Guotai Junan Securities Co.,Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Junan Securities Company serves clients throughout China.

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Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)

China - Distress About To Breach Global Financial Crisis Trough

Business conditions in China are fast approaching levels not seen since the darkest days in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In that period,...

Daniel Tabbush

Does China Have Too Much Equity?

Chinese bank balance sheets are getting more and more interesting. The burgeoning bonds-for-loans programme and the nascent equity-for-loans...

Mark Artherton

Latest China House Price Data

Today's house price indices data from SouFun-CREIS on new home sales in China show accelerated growth for 100 cities overall index of 10%...

Robert Ciemniak

Growth with Volatility - The Next Five Years in China

China's 13th Five Year Plan aims to re-balance the economy, to encourage innovation and to clean up the environment. But a major assessment of the...

Bixmoor

TGIM! @KVP_Macro - WK22. Mon 30 May 2016. The Global Macro Take: DXY Is Going Back to 100

Global Macro Take: WK 22 – DXY is going back to 100 Again its all about the US Dollar & upcoming Fed hikes, nothing else matters… DXY at 95.52...

Kay Van-Petersen

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