HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Deshengtang Pharmaceutical Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Due to COVID-19, the consumption pattern of customers has changed.The rapid development period of pharmacies is coming to an end and the industry has entered a new era of integration.</li>
<li>The essence of Deshengtang's business model is more like traditional retail offline pharmacies, relying heavily on selling drugs. The Company's healthy gross margin gives hope for an early turnaround. </li>
<li>However, no matter from which field to seek expansion, Deshengtang would encounter strong competitors.It remains to see if Deshengtang can survive in the industry rather than be acquired by competitors.</li>
</ul>


Due to COVID-19, the consumption pattern of customers has changed.The rapid development period of pharmacies is coming to an end and the industry has entered a new era of integration.
The essence of Deshengtang's business model is more like traditional retail offline pharmacies, relying heavily on selling drugs. The Company's healthy gross margin gives hope for an early turnaround. 
However, no matter from which field to seek expansion, Deshengtang would encounter strong competitors.It remains to see if Deshengtang can survive in the industry rather than be acquired by competitors.


Pre-IPO Deshengtang Pharmaceutical - Benign Development Momentum, but Still Face Some Risks

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 9th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We estimate the outflows to be USD 345 million and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 9th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We estimate the outflows to be USD 345 million and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, CCB.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 9th): Tencent, China Mobile, CCB

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The current policy environment determines that TCM is the core asset of pharmaceuticals, not innovative drugs. We think it is necessary to take a fresh look at TCM industry.</li>
<li>TCM formula granules have more opportunities. Exclusive variety of branded OTC TCM has better outlook. TCM medical services also deserve investors’ attention, because hospitals are the main channels for TCM. </li>
<li>China's pharmaceutical industry has its unique features. We recommend investors to leave a place in the portfolio to invest in TCM companies, which could outperform in the current pharmaceutical environment.</li>
</ul>


The current policy environment determines that TCM is the core asset of pharmaceuticals, not innovative drugs. We think it is necessary to take a fresh look at TCM industry.
TCM formula granules have more opportunities. Exclusive variety of branded OTC TCM has better outlook. TCM medical services also deserve investors’ attention, because hospitals are the main channels for TCM. 
China's pharmaceutical industry has its unique features. We recommend investors to leave a place in the portfolio to invest in TCM companies, which could outperform in the current pharmaceutical environment.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Industry - TCM Is Becoming Indispensable in the Portfolio

<ul>
<li>China’s GDP growth target of 5% for 2023 is a "deliberate decision".Chinese authorities may have seen potential downside risks of economy and hope to restore the credibility of growth target.</li>
<li>If investors fantasize about low interest rates would continue in the future, they could be disappointed. This means that investors' strategies and mentality may need to be changed in time.</li>
<li>For China healthcare, the expansion of high-quality medical resources in grassroots markets would be a big opportunity, involving reform of State-owned Enterprise-run hospitals and increasing market penetration of medical device/TCM. </li>
</ul>


China’s GDP growth target of 5% for 2023 is a "deliberate decision".Chinese authorities may have seen potential downside risks of economy and hope to restore the credibility of growth target.
If investors fantasize about low interest rates would continue in the future, they could be disappointed. This means that investors' strategies and mentality may need to be changed in time.
For China healthcare, the expansion of high-quality medical resources in grassroots markets would be a big opportunity, involving reform of State-owned Enterprise-run hospitals and increasing market penetration of medical device/TCM. 


China's 2023 Government Work Report in 14th NPC - The Highlights and the Outlook

Equity Bottom-Up

Shanghai Haohai Biological Tec / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The General Office of the State Council issued favorable policy for TCM industry. However, TCM still has to face VBP, therefore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhangzhou-pientzehuang-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15709:1" rel="noopener">Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co. (600436 CH)</a> and Gushengtang are our top picks..</li>
<li>Pfizer is in talks to acquire Seagen in a deal worth over US$30 billion, but we remain conservative about whether this transaction would ultimately bring expected contributions to Pfizer.</li>
<li>Haohai’s business model fails to bring ideal performance. Increasing competition/declining gross margin cast doubts on the outlook of medical aesthetics business. We’re not optimistic about its potential valuation upside.</li>
</ul>


The General Office of the State Council issued favorable policy for TCM industry. However, TCM still has to face VBP, therefore Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co. (600436 CH) and Gushengtang are our top picks..
Pfizer is in talks to acquire Seagen in a deal worth over US$30 billion, but we remain conservative about whether this transaction would ultimately bring expected contributions to Pfizer.
Haohai’s business model fails to bring ideal performance. Increasing competition/declining gross margin cast doubts on the outlook of medical aesthetics business. We’re not optimistic about its potential valuation upside.


China Healthcare Weekly (March.3) - TCM New Policy, Pfizer to Acquire Seagen, Haohai Biological

China

Gushengtang Holdings Limted operates as a TCM (Traditional Chinese medicine) healthcare service provider. The Company operates offline medical institutions and online healthcare platforms and provides TCM healthcare services and products. Gushengtang conducts businesses in China.

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Gushengtang (2273 HK)

Pre-IPO Deshengtang Pharmaceutical - Benign Development Momentum, but Still Face Some Risks

Deshengtang has hope for an early turnaround if benign development momentum could continue. But its business model does not have a high moat, so...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jun 9th): Tencent, China Mobile, CCB

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Tencent, China Mobile, and China Construction Bank.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Industry - TCM Is Becoming Indispensable in the Portfolio

The current policy environment in China indicates that TCM is core asset of pharmaceuticals, not innovative drug R&D. It''s time to take TCM...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China's 2023 Government Work Report in 14th NPC - The Highlights and the Outlook

We analyzed our interpretation on China's 2023 Government Work Report in 14th NPC, including GDP growth, CPI, fiscal/monetary policy, valuation...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (March.3) - TCM New Policy, Pfizer to Acquire Seagen, Haohai Biological

New favorable policy for TCM industry was released. We analyzed our top picks. Pfizer is in talks to acquire Seagen, but we're conservative about...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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