IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingston-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3566:1" rel="noopener">Kingston Financial (1031 HK)</a> announced a privatisation offer from Mrs Chu, the controlling shareholder, at HK$0.30 per share, a 47.8% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final.</li>
<li>Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of disinterested shareholders rejection) and the headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>The offer is light and the offeror is betting that the grim market conditions will sway the headcount test in its favour. Scheme document despatched by 21 December. </li>
</ul>



Kingston Financial (1031 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Mrs Chu, the controlling shareholder, at HK$0.30 per share, a 47.8% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer price is final.
Key conditions include approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% of disinterested shareholders rejection) and the headcount test. No shareholder holds a blocking stake.
The offer is light and the offeror is betting that the grim market conditions will sway the headcount test in its favour. Scheme document despatched by 21 December. 


Kingston Financial’s HK$0.30 Privatisation Bid from Mrs Chu

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingston-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3566:1" rel="noopener">Kingston Financial (1031 HK)</a> entered a trading halt pending an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 14 October. The shares are at all-time lows. </li>
<li>It is likely that Pollyanna Chu Yuet Wah (CEO and co-founder), the largest shareholder representing 75.61% of ordinary shares (80.09% of diluted shares), is seeking to privatise Kingston.</li>
<li>As privatisation through a Bermuda scheme involves the headcount test, a decent premium is required - an offer at the 1-year average price of HK$0.33 implies a 63% premium.</li>
</ul>



Kingston Financial (1031 HK) entered a trading halt pending an announcement under the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers on 14 October. The shares are at all-time lows. 
It is likely that Pollyanna Chu Yuet Wah (CEO and co-founder), the largest shareholder representing 75.61% of ordinary shares (80.09% of diluted shares), is seeking to privatise Kingston.
As privatisation through a Bermuda scheme involves the headcount test, a decent premium is required - an offer at the 1-year average price of HK$0.33 implies a 63% premium.


Kingston’s All-Time Lows to Draw an Offer from Mrs Chu?

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 125.5% as of Sep 30th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 6.5ppt weeok on week, led by consumer staples, industrials, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Ping An, Bankcomm, Angang Steel, Remegen, Qingdao Port, China Tourism, Asymchem Lab, Flat Glass.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 125.5% as of Sep 30th.
The average A-H premium changed by 6.5ppt weeok on week, led by consumer staples, industrials, communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Ping An, Bankcomm, Angang Steel, Remegen, Qingdao Port, China Tourism, Asymchem Lab, Flat Glass.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 30th): China Tourism at New Low Since Listing

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 119.5% as of Sep 23rd.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.8ppt weeok on week, led by energy, financials, materials and offset by consumer staples, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Angang, Flat Glass, Zoomlion, China Tourism, China Telecom.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 142 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 119.5% as of Sep 23rd.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.8ppt weeok on week, led by energy, financials, materials and offset by consumer staples, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Angang, Flat Glass, Zoomlion, China Tourism, China Telecom.


A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 23rd): China Tourism A-H at All Time Low

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Over 80% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance, we see 7 stocks in inclusion/exclusion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.9% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 2.85bn.</li>
<li>The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)</a> by a wide margin over the last few months.</li>
</ul>


Over 80% of the way through the review period for the December rebalance, we see 7 stocks in inclusion/exclusion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 3.9% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 2.85bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) by a wide margin over the last few months.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Rotation To Continue

China

Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. is a securities firm which acts as a broker, dealer for securities. The Company also provides investment advisory, placing and underwriting, nominee and custodian services.

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Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)

Kingston Financial’s HK$0.30 Privatisation Bid from Mrs Chu

The key risk is the headcount test. Despite the large premium, the offer is underwhelming to peer multiples and historical share prices. A 60% deal...

Arun George

Kingston’s All-Time Lows to Draw an Offer from Mrs Chu?

Mrs Chu (CEO and co-founder) is likely seeking to privatise Kingston. A decent premium is required as privatisation through a Bermuda scheme (most...

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 30th): China Tourism at New Low Since Listing

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Ping An, Bankcomm, Angang Steel, Remegen, Qingdao Port,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 23rd): China Tourism A-H at All Time Low

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Angang, Flat Glass, Zoomlion, China Tourism, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sector Rotation To Continue

We forecast 5 changes for the SSE50 Index in December. There are a few names that are close to add/delete zone and price/volume changes can lead to...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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