Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hana Financial remains our buy pick among Korean banks; it is close to the top our scorecard, it remains attractively valued and its returns are improving</li>
<li>Hana is trading at a large PBV discount to KB Financial; this currently stands at a 30%+ discount which is over one standard deviation from the historical PBV discount mean</li>
<li>Furthermore, we see that this relatively dovish phase of monetary policy, Hana appears to have more limited downside risk than its peers in terms of further interest spread erosion</li>
</ul>


Hana Financial remains our buy pick among Korean banks; it is close to the top our scorecard, it remains attractively valued and its returns are improving
Hana is trading at a large PBV discount to KB Financial; this currently stands at a 30%+ discount which is over one standard deviation from the historical PBV discount mean
Furthermore, we see that this relatively dovish phase of monetary policy, Hana appears to have more limited downside risk than its peers in terms of further interest spread erosion


Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) On the Buy List

<ul>
<li>We stick with Hana Financial as our sole buy in Korean banks; even though it does not top our proprietary scorecard, it remains attractively valued and its returns are improving</li>
<li>We downgrade Woori to a neutral from a buy, with Woori now trading at a PBV premium to Hana; historically, this has been an indicator of future poor share performance</li>
<li>KB Financial ranks top in our scorecard; KB is one watch, but remains a neutral due to limited appeal in terms of valuation</li>
</ul>


We stick with Hana Financial as our sole buy in Korean banks; even though it does not top our proprietary scorecard, it remains attractively valued and its returns are improving
We downgrade Woori to a neutral from a buy, with Woori now trading at a PBV premium to Hana; historically, this has been an indicator of future poor share performance
KB Financial ranks top in our scorecard; KB is one watch, but remains a neutral due to limited appeal in terms of valuation


Korean Banks; Keep Buy on Hana (086790 KS), Take Profits on Woori (316140 KS)

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.</li>
<li>We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.
We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

<ul>
<li>Our weighted metrics of share valuations, returns, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into a scorecard matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woori-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27995:1" rel="noopener">Woori Financial Group (316140 KS)</a> remains the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, dividend yield, and its superior credit quality relative to its peers</li>
<li>Hana Financial is second from top in our scorecard due to its attractive PBV ratio versus RoE, healthy dividend yield and sound credit quality; management should deliver improved medium-term returns</li>
</ul>


Our weighted metrics of share valuations, returns, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into a scorecard matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations

Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) remains the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, dividend yield, and its superior credit quality relative to its peers
Hana Financial is second from top in our scorecard due to its attractive PBV ratio versus RoE, healthy dividend yield and sound credit quality; management should deliver improved medium-term returns


Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

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Hana Financial (086790 KS)

Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) On the Buy List

Hana Financial is our buy among Korean banks on attractive valuations - big PBV discount to KB Financial - and improving returns. Hana has limited...

Victor Galliano

Korean Banks; Keep Buy on Hana (086790 KS), Take Profits on Woori (316140 KS)

We stick with Hana as a buy in Korean banks, downgrading Woori to neutral, due to its premium PBV ratio to Hana; scorecard-topping KB Financial is...

Victor Galliano

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

Weighted scorecard metrics drive opportunities in undervalued stocks; Woori Financial with its strong credit quality and high dividend yield, Hana...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) On the Buy List

​Hana Financial is our buy among Korean banks on attractive valuations - big PBV discount to KB Financial - and improving returns. Hana has limited...

Victor Galliano

Korean Banks; Keep Buy on Hana (086790 KS), Take Profits on Woori (316140 KS)

​We stick with Hana as a buy in Korean banks, downgrading Woori to neutral, due to its premium PBV ratio to Hana; scorecard-topping KB Financial is...

Victor Galliano

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

​Weighted scorecard metrics drive opportunities in undervalued stocks; Woori Financial with its strong credit quality and high dividend yield, Hana...

Victor Galliano

Hana Financial is our buy among Korean banks on attractive valuations - big PBV discount to KB Financial - and improving returns. Hana has limited...

We stick with Hana as a buy in Korean banks, downgrading Woori to neutral, due to its premium PBV ratio to Hana; scorecard-topping KB Financial is...

Weighted scorecard metrics drive opportunities in undervalued stocks; Woori Financial with its strong credit quality and high dividend yield, Hana...