Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.</li>
<li>We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since 4/22/25, we continue to believe SPX and ACWI-US likely bottomed at 4800-4820 and $101-$102 (May 13, 2025 report), and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish also.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115, but we do not expect these levels to be tested.
We expect 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US to hold as support; considering the historic run up, don't be surprised to see another week or two of consolidation.


MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our weighted metrics of share valuations, returns, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into a scorecard matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woori-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27995:1" rel="noopener">Woori Financial Group (316140 KS)</a> remains the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, dividend yield, and its superior credit quality relative to its peers</li>
<li>Hana Financial is second from top in our scorecard due to its attractive PBV ratio versus RoE, healthy dividend yield and sound credit quality; management should deliver improved medium-term returns</li>
</ul>


Our weighted metrics of share valuations, returns, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into a scorecard matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations

Woori Financial Group (316140 KS) remains the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, dividend yield, and its superior credit quality relative to its peers
Hana Financial is second from top in our scorecard due to its attractive PBV ratio versus RoE, healthy dividend yield and sound credit quality; management should deliver improved medium-term returns


Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

<ul>
<li>Our weighted metrics of share valuations, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into an investment valuation matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations</li>
<li>We stick with Hana Financial for its attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia; there is potential for management to deliver on its Value-Up plan over the medium term</li>
<li>Woori is the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and its improving pre- and post-provision returns along with efficiency ratio</li>
</ul>


Our weighted metrics of share valuations, capital adequacy and credit quality feed into an investment valuation matrix; we look for opportunities where the risks are well discounted in current valuations
We stick with Hana Financial for its attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia; there is potential for management to deliver on its Value-Up plan over the medium term
Woori is the stand-out in terms of our matrix; this is based on valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and its improving pre- and post-provision returns along with efficiency ratio


Korean Banks; Positive Fundamental and Share Price Trends for Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>On 4 February, Hana Financial (086790 KS) announced a share buyback and cancellation of 400 billion won worth of treasury shares, representing 2.3% of its market cap. </li>
<li><em><strong>Hana Financial plans to achieve a total shareholder return ratio of 50% by 2027. Its total shareholder return ratio increased to 37.8% in 2024, up 4.8% YoY. </strong></em></li>
<li>Hana Financial's total cash dividend per common share is 3,600 won in 2024 (up 5.9% YoY). Hana Financial's total shareholder return ratio increased to 37.8% in 2024, up 4.8% YoY. </li>
</ul>


On 4 February, Hana Financial (086790 KS) announced a share buyback and cancellation of 400 billion won worth of treasury shares, representing 2.3% of its market cap. 
Hana Financial plans to achieve a total shareholder return ratio of 50% by 2027. Its total shareholder return ratio increased to 37.8% in 2024, up 4.8% YoY. 
Hana Financial's total cash dividend per common share is 3,600 won in 2024 (up 5.9% YoY). Hana Financial's total shareholder return ratio increased to 37.8% in 2024, up 4.8% YoY. 


Hana Financial: Share Buyback and Cancellation of 400 Billion Won + 50% Total Shareholder Return

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

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Hana Financial (086790 KS)

MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

Weighted scorecard metrics drive opportunities in undervalued stocks; Woori Financial with its strong credit quality and high dividend yield, Hana...

Victor Galliano

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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MSCI ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Buying Korean Financials; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade

MSCI $ACWI Coiling Under All-Time Highs; Monitoring Europe for Downgrade; Buying Korean Financials $WF $SHG $KB and Hana. Still Bullish, expecting...

Vermilion Research

Korean Banks; Stick with Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

​Weighted scorecard metrics drive opportunities in undervalued stocks; Woori Financial with its strong credit quality and high dividend yield, Hana...

Victor Galliano

Korean Banks; Positive Fundamental and Share Price Trends for Hana (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS)

​Weighted metrics drive our investment valuation matrix; we like Hana Financial for attractive valuations and its Value-up plan, Woori stands out...

Victor Galliano

Hana Financial: Share Buyback and Cancellation of 400 Billion Won + 50% Total Shareholder Return

Hana Financial plans to achieve a total shareholder return ratio of 50% by 2027. Its total shareholder return ratio increased to 37.8% in 2024, up...

Douglas Kim

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

Weighted scorecard metrics drive opportunities in undervalued stocks; Woori Financial with its strong credit quality and high dividend yield, Hana...

Weighted metrics drive our investment valuation matrix; we like Hana Financial for attractive valuations and its Value-up plan, Woori stands out...