Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance for the HSIII Index only involves capping to limit stocks to 12% of the index weight. There will not be any constituent changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.9bn (US$378m).</li>
<li>The largest outflows are expected to be from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> with inflows spread across the other index constituents.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance for the HSIII Index only involves capping to limit stocks to 12% of the index weight. There will not be any constituent changes.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$2.9bn (US$378m).
The largest outflows are expected to be from Meituan (3690 HK) and JD.com (9618 HK) with inflows spread across the other index constituents.


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Capping Flows in December

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Heavyweights attended as per previous conferences. Finance Minister (FM) Lan Foan and his three deputies</li>
<li>Economists’ and market expectations damped down to RMB 1.5 – 2 Trillion in stimulus.</li>
<li>Some major positive points we believe, but will be a disappointment to some</li>
</ul>


Heavyweights attended as per previous conferences. Finance Minister (FM) Lan Foan and his three deputies
Economists’ and market expectations damped down to RMB 1.5 – 2 Trillion in stimulus.
Some major positive points we believe, but will be a disappointment to some


Ministry of Finance Press Conference – First Take

<ul>
<li>A correction was natural after the fast, strong move up</li>
<li>Any detailed fiscal stimulus plan will come from the State Council or the MoF</li>
<li>Capital market reforms moving in the right direction with continued focus on consumption.</li>
</ul>


A correction was natural after the fast, strong move up
Any detailed fiscal stimulus plan will come from the State Council or the MoF
Capital market reforms moving in the right direction with continued focus on consumption.


Stay Calm and Don’t Panic! Overbought Conditions Meet an Overhyped Meeting.

<ul>
<li>Change in strategy by the Chinese authorities mean this is more than a trade</li>
<li>Sentiment, valuations and positioning are still supportive despite the rally</li>
<li>Overbought conditions in the very short-term and the technical picture is mixed </li>
</ul>


Change in strategy by the Chinese authorities mean this is more than a trade
Sentiment, valuations and positioning are still supportive despite the rally
Overbought conditions in the very short-term and the technical picture is mixed 


Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> inclusion and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> deletion are high probability changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a> being added and of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a> being deleted at the rebalance.</li>
<li>There has been big short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a> over the last couple of months while shorts would have covered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longfor-properties" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8149:1" rel="noopener">Longfor Properties (960 HK)</a> recently.</li>
</ul>



PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) inclusion and Longfor Properties (960 HK) deletion are high probability changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December.
There is a lower probability of China Resources Power (836 HK) being added and of Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) being deleted at the rebalance.
There has been big short covering in PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK) over the last couple of months while shorts would have covered Longfor Properties (960 HK) recently.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: High & Low Probability Changes

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Capping Flows in December

No constituent changes but there will be capping flows. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Ministry of Finance Press Conference – First Take

Some major strategic changes have come out of the Ministry of Finance press conference but the lack of a concrete number for boosing consumption...

Rikki Malik

Stay Calm and Don’t Panic! Overbought Conditions Meet an Overhyped Meeting.

Correction in markets expected after rapid rise, detailed fiscal stimulus plans to come from State Council or MoF, capital market reforms...

Rikki Malik

Examining the Bear Case for China

Chinese authorities shift strategy , and while sentiment and valuations support the rally, in short-term there are overbought conditions and a...

Rikki Malik

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: High & Low Probability Changes

There is one high probability change and one low probability change for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.5%...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index (HSIII) Rebalance Preview: Capping Flows in December

No constituent changes but there will be capping flows. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 4.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of...

Brian Freitas

Ministry of Finance Press Conference – First Take

Some major strategic changes have come out of the Ministry of Finance press conference but the lack of a concrete number for boosing consumption...

Rikki Malik

Stay Calm and Don’t Panic! Overbought Conditions Meet an Overhyped Meeting.

​Correction in markets expected after rapid rise, detailed fiscal stimulus plans to come from State Council or MoF, capital market reforms...

Rikki Malik

Examining the Bear Case for China

​Chinese authorities shift strategy , and while sentiment and valuations support the rally, in short-term there are overbought conditions and a...

Rikki Malik

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: High & Low Probability Changes

There is one high probability change and one low probability change for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.5%...

Brian Freitas

Correction in markets expected after rapid rise, detailed fiscal stimulus plans to come from State Council or MoF, capital market reforms...

Chinese authorities shift strategy , and while sentiment and valuations support the rally, in short-term there are overbought conditions and a...