Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Over the past few trading days, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Strategies tend to have a short-term horizon, with approximately 40% of all strategies employing weekly options. Bearish views dominate with almost 70% of strategies being put spreads.</li>
<li>
Why read: This Insight breaks down complex option strategies and sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,</li>
</ul>



Context: Over the past few trading days, JD.com (9618 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.

Highlights: Strategies tend to have a short-term horizon, with approximately 40% of all strategies employing weekly options. Bearish views dominate with almost 70% of strategies being put spreads.

Why read: This Insight breaks down complex option strategies and sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,


JD.com (9618 HK / JD US): Top Option Trades Reveal Strong Bearish Sentiment

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for the Hang Seng and eight prominent Hong Kong stocks</li>
<li>
Highlight: With a dense earnings calendar ahead, volatility dispersion is widening — BYD trades rich into results, while Tencent and Xiaomi remain notably cheap relative to history.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich. This Insight provides volatility analysis for the Hang Seng and eight prominent Hong Kong stocks

Highlight: With a dense earnings calendar ahead, volatility dispersion is widening — BYD trades rich into results, while Tencent and Xiaomi remain notably cheap relative to history.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


Selective Volatility Picks Emerge Across HSI Stocks

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>For 3Q25E, we anticipate JD.com (JD) to ink total revenue of RMB295.0bn, up 13.3% YoY, inline with Bloomberg consensus, and to report non-GAAP net profit of RMB4.4bn, down 67% YoY due to incremental investment in food delivery business, but better than consensus at RMB3.7bn.</li><li>We are looking for 17% YoY growth in OP for JD Retail (JDR) in 3Q25E, and our OP forecast is 5% better than consensus, driven by solid revenue growth and OPM expansion aided by the scale effect and increase in revenue contribution from high-margin services revenue.</li><li>We have baked in OP loss of RMB14.7bn for new businesses segment in 3Q25E (2Q25: loss of RMB14.8bn), among which we are looking for a slightly narrowed QoQ loss from food delivery (FD) business, aided by improvement in unit economics driven by optimization in user subsidies and improvement in operating efficiency, while offset by sequentially increased investment in other new businesses such as Jingxi. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For 3Q25E, we anticipate JD.com (JD) to ink total revenue of RMB295.0bn, up 13.3% YoY, inline with Bloomberg consensus, and to report non-GAAP net profit of RMB4.4bn, down 67% YoY due to incremental investment in food delivery business, but better than consensus at RMB3.7bn.We are looking for 17% YoY growth in OP for JD Retail (JDR) in 3Q25E, and our OP forecast is 5% better than consensus, driven by solid revenue growth and OPM expansion aided by the scale effect and increase in revenue contribution from high-margin services revenue.We have baked in OP loss of RMB14.7bn for new businesses segment in 3Q25E (2Q25: loss of RMB14.8bn), among which we are looking for a slightly narrowed QoQ loss from food delivery (FD) business, aided by improvement in unit economics driven by optimization in user subsidies and improvement in operating efficiency, while offset by sequentially increased investment in other new businesses such as Jingxi. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD US) - Core JD Retail Earnings Growth Likely Better than Expectation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> upcoming Q4 and Full Year 2024 results announcement on 6 March historically triggers significant stock volatility, with full-year announcements causing 12-14% price movements.</li>
<li>Options market pricing implies a 9.4% post-announcement move (up or down), which is less than previous full-year announcement reactions but nearly double the average quarterly announcement impact.</li>
<li>Long Straddle positions break even at 9.2% price movements, appearing expensive compared to quarterly announcement history but potentially profitable based on full-year announcement patterns.</li>
</ul>



JD.com (9618 HK) upcoming Q4 and Full Year 2024 results announcement on 6 March historically triggers significant stock volatility, with full-year announcements causing 12-14% price movements.
Options market pricing implies a 9.4% post-announcement move (up or down), which is less than previous full-year announcement reactions but nearly double the average quarterly announcement impact.
Long Straddle positions break even at 9.2% price movements, appearing expensive compared to quarterly announcement history but potentially profitable based on full-year announcement patterns.


JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

<ul>
<li>Box trades are gaining popularity on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. These arbitrage strategies exploit price discrepancies in options markets for near risk-free profits.</li>
<li>Long box trades involve simultaneously buying bull call spreads and bear put spreads with identical strikes and expiration dates, creating a fixed payoff regardless of the underlying asset's price movement.</li>
<li>Box trades require careful execution consideration of spreads, commissions, margins, and fees, with risks primarily in execution and operations rather than market exposure.</li>
</ul>


Box trades are gaining popularity on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. These arbitrage strategies exploit price discrepancies in options markets for near risk-free profits.
Long box trades involve simultaneously buying bull call spreads and bear put spreads with identical strikes and expiration dates, creating a fixed payoff regardless of the underlying asset's price movement.
Box trades require careful execution consideration of spreads, commissions, margins, and fees, with risks primarily in execution and operations rather than market exposure.


Box Trades Explained: How Traders Execute Near Risk-Free Arbitrage in Hong Kong's Options Market

China

JD.com, Inc. is an online direct sales company in China. The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications. JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (9618 HK)

JD.com (9618 HK / JD US): Top Option Trades Reveal Strong Bearish Sentiment

JD.com (9618 HK) option strategies mostly bearish with put spreads and short-term focus. Trade inspiration through breakdown of complex strategies...

Gaudenz Schneider

Selective Volatility Picks Emerge Across HSI Stocks

Rich vs. cheap volatility in Hong Kong’s top stocks: BYD trades rich, while Tencent and Xiaomi remain subdued, as options highlight growing...

Gaudenz Schneider

JD.com (JD US) - Core JD Retail Earnings Growth Likely Better than Expectation

For 3Q25E, we anticipate JD.com (JD) to ink total revenue of RMB295.0bn, up 13.3% YoY, inline with Bloomberg consensus, and to report non-GAAP net...

CMB International

JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. ATM Straddles offer an opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

Box Trades Explained: How Traders Execute Near Risk-Free Arbitrage in Hong Kong's Options Market

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. Straddles offer an opportunity to...

Gaudenz Schneider

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD.com (9618 HK / JD US): Top Option Trades Reveal Strong Bearish Sentiment

​JD.com (9618 HK) option strategies mostly bearish with put spreads and short-term focus. Trade inspiration through breakdown of complex strategies...

Gaudenz Schneider

Selective Volatility Picks Emerge Across HSI Stocks

Rich vs. cheap volatility in Hong Kong’s top stocks: BYD trades rich, while Tencent and Xiaomi remain subdued, as options highlight growing...

Gaudenz Schneider

JD.com (JD US) - Core JD Retail Earnings Growth Likely Better than Expectation

For 3Q25E, we anticipate JD.com (JD) to ink total revenue of RMB295.0bn, up 13.3% YoY, inline with Bloomberg consensus, and to report non-GAAP net...

CMB International

JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. ATM Straddles offer an opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

Box Trades Explained: How Traders Execute Near Risk-Free Arbitrage in Hong Kong's Options Market

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. Straddles offer an opportunity to...

Gaudenz Schneider

JD.com (9618 HK) option strategies mostly bearish with put spreads and short-term focus. Trade inspiration through breakdown of complex strategies...