Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In the first quarter of 2025, JD.com reported strong financial and operational performance, indicating a positive start to the year.</li><li>The company's total revenues increased by 16% year-over-year, showing accelerated growth compared to the previous quarter.</li><li>This growth was broad-based, with electronics and home appliances revenue up by 17% and general merchandise revenue rising by 15%, demonstrating the strength of JD.com's diversified product range and supply chain capabilities.</li></ul>

In the first quarter of 2025, JD.com reported strong financial and operational performance, indicating a positive start to the year.The company's total revenues increased by 16% year-over-year, showing accelerated growth compared to the previous quarter.This growth was broad-based, with electronics and home appliances revenue up by 17% and general merchandise revenue rising by 15%, demonstrating the strength of JD.com's diversified product range and supply chain capabilities.

JD.com: AI Expansion into On-Demand Retail & Food Delivery Is An Interesting New Development!

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a>, executed over the period from 4 June to 10 June on the HKEX</li>
<li>
Highlights: A range of noteworthy strategies, including a deep in-the-money, three-months Diagonal Call Spread and an ultra-low-cost, one-week Calendar Put Spread, highlighting diverse approaches to capitalize on market movements.</li>
<li>
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,</li>
</ul>



Discover sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on JD.com (9618 HK), executed over the period from 4 June to 10 June on the HKEX

Highlights: A range of noteworthy strategies, including a deep in-the-money, three-months Diagonal Call Spread and an ultra-low-cost, one-week Calendar Put Spread, highlighting diverse approaches to capitalize on market movements.

Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,


JD.com (9618 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>JD.com C1Q25 revenue exceeded our estimate/consensus by 2.4%/4.3% and adjusted NI by 19%/20%, thanks to better-than-expected cross selling from trade-in subsidies and gross margin;</li>
<li>We, however, raise full year new businesses operating loss from RMB(6bn) to RMB(12bn). We estimate 80% of the loss will come from food delivery;</li>
<li>In lieu of the continued uncertainty in take-out investments, we remove JD.com from TOP BUY while cut TP from US$58 to US$54.</li>
</ul>


JD.com C1Q25 revenue exceeded our estimate/consensus by 2.4%/4.3% and adjusted NI by 19%/20%, thanks to better-than-expected cross selling from trade-in subsidies and gross margin;
We, however, raise full year new businesses operating loss from RMB(6bn) to RMB(12bn). We estimate 80% of the loss will come from food delivery;
In lieu of the continued uncertainty in take-out investments, we remove JD.com from TOP BUY while cut TP from US$58 to US$54.


[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause

<ul>
<li>We expect JD to report C1Q25 revenue/adjusted net income growth of 13%/21% YoY, both in-line with consensus, boosted by gov't subsidies.</li>
<li>We see further catalysts from C2Q25 onward, driven by absorption of export-turned orders, helped by additional policy stimulus, which we believe will mainly augment on margins. </li>
<li>We keep JD as the TOP BUY and raise TP from US$52to US$ 60.</li>
</ul>


We expect JD to report C1Q25 revenue/adjusted net income growth of 13%/21% YoY, both in-line with consensus, boosted by gov't subsidies.
We see further catalysts from C2Q25 onward, driven by absorption of export-turned orders, helped by additional policy stimulus, which we believe will mainly augment on margins. 
We keep JD as the TOP BUY and raise TP from US$52to US$ 60.


[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> upcoming Q4 and Full Year 2024 results announcement on 6 March historically triggers significant stock volatility, with full-year announcements causing 12-14% price movements.</li>
<li>Options market pricing implies a 9.4% post-announcement move (up or down), which is less than previous full-year announcement reactions but nearly double the average quarterly announcement impact.</li>
<li>Long Straddle positions break even at 9.2% price movements, appearing expensive compared to quarterly announcement history but potentially profitable based on full-year announcement patterns.</li>
</ul>



JD.com (9618 HK) upcoming Q4 and Full Year 2024 results announcement on 6 March historically triggers significant stock volatility, with full-year announcements causing 12-14% price movements.
Options market pricing implies a 9.4% post-announcement move (up or down), which is less than previous full-year announcement reactions but nearly double the average quarterly announcement impact.
Long Straddle positions break even at 9.2% price movements, appearing expensive compared to quarterly announcement history but potentially profitable based on full-year announcement patterns.


JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

China

JD.com, Inc. is an online direct sales company in China. The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications. JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (9618 HK)

JD.com: AI Expansion into On-Demand Retail & Food Delivery Is An Interesting New Development!

In the first quarter of 2025, JD.com reported strong financial and operational performance, indicating a positive start to the year. The company's...

Baptista Research

JD.com (9618 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

Discover live, multi-leg options strategies on JD.com, including Diagonal Spreads and one-day Butterflies, offering insights into market sentiment...

Gaudenz Schneider

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause

JD.com exceeded revenue and adjusted net income estimates in Q1, but increased operating loss in new businesses prompts removal from TOP BUY and a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

JD is expected to report strong growth in revenue and net income for Q1 2025, with further catalysts expected in Q2 2025 and beyond. Analysts...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. ATM Straddles offer an opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

JD.com: AI Expansion into On-Demand Retail & Food Delivery Is An Interesting New Development!

In the first quarter of 2025, JD.com reported strong financial and operational performance, indicating a positive start to the year. The company's...

Baptista Research

JD.com (9618 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

​Discover live, multi-leg options strategies on JD.com, including Diagonal Spreads and one-day Butterflies, offering insights into market sentiment...

Gaudenz Schneider

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause

​JD.com exceeded revenue and adjusted net income estimates in Q1, but increased operating loss in new businesses prompts removal from TOP BUY and a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$60) TP Change]: C1Q25 Preview: An Anchor of Stability Within Turmoil

​JD is expected to report strong growth in revenue and net income for Q1 2025, with further catalysts expected in Q2 2025 and beyond. Analysts...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (9618 HK) FY Earnings on 6 March: Divergence Between Option-Implied And Historic Move

JD.com (9618 HK) Earnings Call tonight 8:00 pm HKT. After yesterday's 3.06% move up, the ATM strike is now 165. ATM Straddles offer an opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

Discover live, multi-leg options strategies on JD.com, including Diagonal Spreads and one-day Butterflies, offering insights into market sentiment...

JD.com exceeded revenue and adjusted net income estimates in Q1, but increased operating loss in new businesses prompts removal from TOP BUY and a...

JD is expected to report strong growth in revenue and net income for Q1 2025, with further catalysts expected in Q2 2025 and beyond. Analysts...