Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the close on 1 March.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$7.74bn (US$988m). There is nearly 14x ADV to buy in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> does not appear to be very high, while positioning in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> is very high with a couple of deletions coming up.</li>
</ul>


As expected, Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) will replace GDS Holdings (9698 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the close on 1 March.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.9% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$7.74bn (US$988m). There is nearly 14x ADV to buy in Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK). 
Positioning in Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) does not appear to be very high, while positioning in GDS Holdings (9698 HK) is very high with a couple of deletions coming up.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

<ul>
<li>After narrowly avoiding deletion at the last two index reviews, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> in March and replaced with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> is down 25% for the year while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a> is up 10%.</li>
<li>There appears to be positioning on both stocks though the increase in shorts and jump in cumulative excess volume on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> point to higher positioning.</li>
</ul>


After narrowly avoiding deletion at the last two index reviews, Zhongsheng Group will be deleted from the HSCEI INDEX in March and replaced with China Unicom (762 HK). 

Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) is down 25% for the year while China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK) is up 10%.
There appears to be positioning on both stocks though the increase in shorts and jump in cumulative excess volume on Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) point to higher positioning.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Third Time Unlucky for Zhongsheng (881 HK) As China Unicom (762 HK) In

<ul>
<li>There were index review announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and STAR100 Index later in the week.</li>
<li>Another week of outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK)</a> as inflows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> continue.</li>
</ul>


There were index review announcements for the HSI, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH, HSCI, HSIII and some global indices last week.
There are a bunch of review cutoffs early in the coming week followed by announcements for the STAR50 INDEX and STAR100 Index later in the week.
Another week of outflows for Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Hang Seng H Share ETF (2828 HK) as inflows to iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) continue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>More deflation reported in China and the implications for markets</li>
<li>Chinese authorities keep pushing liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market</li>
<li>Parts of the Chinese Economy not as bad as the doomsayers would have you believe</li>
</ul>


More deflation reported in China and the implications for markets
Chinese authorities keep pushing liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market
Parts of the Chinese Economy not as bad as the doomsayers would have you believe


CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to say hello to the second junior analyst at home as my wife’s due date is approaching fast.</li><li>In between the frightening thoughts on how to deal with not only one but two diaper-wearing boys at home (myself excluded), I keep pondering why I receive so many questions on the timing of the first rate cut.</li><li>Is it really that important?</li></ul>

I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to say hello to the second junior analyst at home as my wife’s due date is approaching fast.In between the frightening thoughts on how to deal with not only one but two diaper-wearing boys at home (myself excluded), I keep pondering why I receive so many questions on the timing of the first rate cut.Is it really that important?

Steno Signals #86 – Trading the Relative Fed and ECB Balance Sheet Development

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

Tongcheng Travel replaces GDS Holdings in the HSTECH at the close on 1 March. GDS is also a delete from a global index on 29 Feb, Positioning in...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Third Time Unlucky for Zhongsheng (881 HK) As China Unicom (762 HK) In

China Unicom replaces Zhongsheng in the HSCEI in March. Shorts have started to tick higher and there is positioning in Zhongsheng. Positioning in...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...

Rikki Malik

Steno Signals #86 – Trading the Relative Fed and ECB Balance Sheet Development

Welcome to our flagship editorial! I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to...

Steno Research

HSTECH Index Rebalance: Tongcheng (780 HK) In; GDS (9698 HK) Out; Round Trip Trade US$1bn

Tongcheng Travel replaces GDS Holdings in the HSTECH at the close on 1 March. GDS is also a delete from a global index on 29 Feb, Positioning in...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Third Time Unlucky for Zhongsheng (881 HK) As China Unicom (762 HK) In

China Unicom replaces Zhongsheng in the HSCEI in March. Shorts have started to tick higher and there is positioning in Zhongsheng. Positioning in...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, Screen Holdings, GMRI, SEA EM, MVIS, SET50, JP Positioning

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

CPI Falls Again in China as Japanification Narrative Does the Rounds

​China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...

Rikki Malik

Steno Signals #86 – Trading the Relative Fed and ECB Balance Sheet Development

Welcome to our flagship editorial! I am sitting here on a Saturday evening (by the time of writing) waiting for the opportunity to...

Steno Research

China reports more deflation, but authorities are injecting massive liquidity into the system and focusing on the stock market; some parts of the...