Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>On 31 March 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK), targeting an initial 13% upswing from 4.68 to 5.28.  Longer term scope identified to 6.50/6.80.</li>
<li>Initial target at 5.28 (+13%) was achieved on 17 April 2023 (8 trading days). We continue to highlight strong evidence of LT bullish trend change targeting 6.50/6.80 (+40%) multi-quarter. </li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
On 31 March 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK), targeting an initial 13% upswing from 4.68 to 5.28.  Longer term scope identified to 6.50/6.80.
Initial target at 5.28 (+13%) was achieved on 17 April 2023 (8 trading days). We continue to highlight strong evidence of LT bullish trend change targeting 6.50/6.80 (+40%) multi-quarter. 


PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) - 5.28 Target Achieved (+13%) In 8 Trading Days

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> has completed a top-up placement of 119m shares at a price of HK$99.18/share, an 8.84% discount to the last close of the stock.</li>
<li>The placement has raised HK$11.8bn (US$1.52bn) and the proceeds will be used for the repayment of loans and for daily operational needs.</li>
<li>There will be small passive inflows in the stock at the close on 20/21 April and some small inflows in August/September.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) has completed a top-up placement of 119m shares at a price of HK$99.18/share, an 8.84% discount to the last close of the stock.
The placement has raised HK$11.8bn (US$1.52bn) and the proceeds will be used for the repayment of loans and for daily operational needs.
There will be small passive inflows in the stock at the close on 20/21 April and some small inflows in August/September.


Anta Sports (2020 HK) Placement: Limited Passive Inflows

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>A prominent bottom below 5000 in Q4 2022 set up an impulsive multi-month uptrend and LT uptrend bias. Our 2023 target at 9450/70 reflects this major bottom.</li>
<li>2023 has delivered a tangible downward correction. Since mid-February a Head and Shoulders Bottom has formed. A break above the neckline at 7085 targets 7770/80 in Q2 2023.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
A prominent bottom below 5000 in Q4 2022 set up an impulsive multi-month uptrend and LT uptrend bias. Our 2023 target at 9450/70 reflects this major bottom.
2023 has delivered a tangible downward correction. Since mid-February a Head and Shoulders Bottom has formed. A break above the neckline at 7085 targets 7770/80 in Q2 2023.


Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) - Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) / Technical Analysis

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

<ul>
<li>At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.</li>
<li>When MT momentum indicators break above multi-year trend lines and ranges they confirm the most impulsive positive MT momentum shift in that multi-year period. This confirms a sustainable MT uptrend.</li>
<li>With aggressive price action and comprehensive MT momentum confirmation in play, the recent impulsive 5 week uptrend is confirmed to have further immediate capacity and targets 26.90/27.10 (+12-14%) in April/May.</li>
</ul>


At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
When MT momentum indicators break above multi-year trend lines and ranges they confirm the most impulsive positive MT momentum shift in that multi-year period. This confirms a sustainable MT uptrend.
With aggressive price action and comprehensive MT momentum confirmation in play, the recent impulsive 5 week uptrend is confirmed to have further immediate capacity and targets 26.90/27.10 (+12-14%) in April/May.


Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (981 HK) - Target 26.90/27.10 In April/May 2023

<ul>
<li>JD.com Inc (9618 HK) has declined heavily in 2023 (-44.5%), producing a new 5 month low of 143.50 on 13 April 2023.</li>
<li>The 143.50 low was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and the new low was quick to fail and reverse.</li>
<li>Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the low and justifies a further 9-18% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.</li>
</ul>


JD.com Inc (9618 HK) has declined heavily in 2023 (-44.5%), producing a new 5 month low of 143.50 on 13 April 2023.
The 143.50 low was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and the new low was quick to fail and reverse.
Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the low and justifies a further 9-18% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.


JD.com Inc (9618 HK) - Prominent ST Momentum Failures – Target Tactical 9-18% Rise

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) - 5.28 Target Achieved (+13%) In 8 Trading Days

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Anta Sports (2020 HK) Placement: Limited Passive Inflows

Anta Sports has completed a top-up placement of 119m shs at HK$99.18, an 8.84% discount to the last close. Given the limited increase in float,...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) - Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (981 HK) - Target 26.90/27.10 In April/May 2023

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

JD.com Inc (9618 HK) - Prominent ST Momentum Failures – Target Tactical 9-18% Rise

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT