Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Implied volatility has broadly risen across most, but not all, HK stocks. Front-month expiries remain historically cheap amid a steepening curve. Opportunities endure, though fewer than in recent weeks.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a straightforward framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.

Highlights: Implied volatility has broadly risen across most, but not all, HK stocks. Front-month expiries remain historically cheap amid a steepening curve. Opportunities endure, though fewer than in recent weeks.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


Volatility Cones Spotlight Hedging in Tencent (700 HK) And More

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

Kingsoft Cloud Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HSTECH index on the verge of breaking through its Deepsek high</li>
<li>The market is again rewarding AI and cloud infrastructure spending</li>
<li>We add some names to benefit from this ongoing trend</li>
</ul>


HSTECH index on the verge of breaking through its Deepsek high
The market is again rewarding AI and cloud infrastructure spending
We add some names to benefit from this ongoing trend


Tactical Trading – Adding AI Infrastructure to the China Tech Trade

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.

Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Change of mindset needed for HK/China as the bull markets broadens out</li>
<li>Signs of excess are rife in many global markets, but no top yet signalled.</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Change of mindset needed for HK/China as the bull markets broadens out
Signs of excess are rife in many global markets, but no top yet signalled.


Overview #34 – China Rocks On: Bull Market Rules

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.</li>
<li>The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO (NIO US)</a> closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> to open around HK$44.55/share.</li>
<li>There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> trackers is more nuanced.</li>
</ul>



NIO (9866 HK) / NIO (NIO US) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn, including the overallotment option, in an equity offering across Hong Kong and the U.S.
The HK offering is priced at HK$43.36/share and the ADR pricing is US$5.57/share. NIO (NIO US) closed at US$5.72/share overnight, so expect NIO (9866 HK) to open around HK$44.55/share.
There will be buying from global index trackers at the time of settlement of the offering shares. The buying from Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) trackers is more nuanced.


NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng TECH Index aims to represent the 30 largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong which have high business exposure to the Innovative Tech Themes.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

Volatility Cones Spotlight Hedging in Tencent (700 HK) And More

Tencent and other major HK stocks trade with historically low front-month volatility, offering potential hedging opportunities as the curve...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tactical Trading – Adding AI Infrastructure to the China Tech Trade

HSTECH index showing increased momentum as market approaches Deepseek high. We look at some AI infrastructure beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

Volatility cones for 8 popular HK stocks help traders and investors spot opportunities. The IV term structure is increasingly shaped by the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #34 – China Rocks On: Bull Market Rules

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at some new additions in Chinese tech as the bull market broadens

Rikki Malik

NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering

NIO (9866 HK) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn in an equity offering across HK/US. Global passive trackers will buy around 13% of the offering....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Volatility Cones Spotlight Hedging in Tencent (700 HK) And More

Tencent and other major HK stocks trade with historically low front-month volatility, offering potential hedging opportunities as the curve...

Gaudenz Schneider

Tactical Trading – Adding AI Infrastructure to the China Tech Trade

​HSTECH index showing increased momentum as market approaches Deepseek high. We look at some AI infrastructure beneficiaries

Rikki Malik

HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

Volatility cones for 8 popular HK stocks help traders and investors spot opportunities. The IV term structure is increasingly shaped by the...

Gaudenz Schneider

Overview #34 – China Rocks On: Bull Market Rules

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at some new additions in Chinese tech as the bull market broadens

Rikki Malik

NIO (9866 HK/NIO US): Index Implications of US$1bn+ Offering

NIO (9866 HK) is looking to raise up to US$1.15bn in an equity offering across HK/US. Global passive trackers will buy around 13% of the offering....

Brian Freitas

HSTECH index showing increased momentum as market approaches Deepseek high. We look at some AI infrastructure beneficiaries