Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>It has been a decent year for the index rebalance strategy, though there have been some big hiccups along the way.</li>
<li>Forecasting the index changes and impacts has been important, but timing (especially momentum/value regime changes) and hedge selection have also been major factors affecting the returns of the strategy.</li>
<li>As passive AUM continues to increase, we expect focus on the strategy to continue in 2025 with market players taking different approaches to trading the potential and announced index changes.</li>
</ul>


It has been a decent year for the index rebalance strategy, though there have been some big hiccups along the way.
Forecasting the index changes and impacts has been important, but timing (especially momentum/value regime changes) and hedge selection have also been major factors affecting the returns of the strategy.
As passive AUM continues to increase, we expect focus on the strategy to continue in 2025 with market players taking different approaches to trading the potential and announced index changes.


How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed in 2024?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Along with its fiscal 2024 results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.</li>
<li>If the conversion is completed by the end of August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> capped at 8% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

<ul>
<li>The largest ETF inflows in the region have been in Taiwan as investors rush into indices that have higher dividend yields.</li>
<li>China had large inflows last year as markets floundered. With markets trading in a range over the last 6 months, those flows have reversed in Q1 this year.</li>
<li>Australia has seen net inflows this year, while there have been net outflows from Hong Kong, India and Japan focused ETFs.</li>
</ul>


The largest ETF inflows in the region have been in Taiwan as investors rush into indices that have higher dividend yields.
China had large inflows last year as markets floundered. With markets trading in a range over the last 6 months, those flows have reversed in Q1 this year.
Australia has seen net inflows this year, while there have been net outflows from Hong Kong, India and Japan focused ETFs.


ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.</li>
<li>The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> is the biggest capping sell.</li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the Hang Seng family of indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights.
The net round-trip trade across all stocks across the five indices is estimated at HK$50bn (US$6.4bn). There is size to trade in a lot of stocks.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) is the biggest buy due to HSIII Index inclusion and capping, while Alibaba (9988 HK) is the biggest capping sell.


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

<ul>
<li>Following two periods of profitability, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng TECH Index aims to represent the 30 largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong which have high business exposure to the Innovative Tech Themes.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

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Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed in 2024?

The index rebalance strategy has performed reasonably well this year. Accurate forecasting of index changes and optimal hedge selection have played...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

ETF Flows in Q1: Inflows for Taiwan, Outflows for China

Taiwan has taken in the largest inflows in Q1 while the largest outflows are in China. The switch from EEM to IEMG continues. Redemptions from EMXC...

Brian Freitas

HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSBIO Index Rebalance: US$6.4bn of Flows Post Capping (Dec 2025)

The Dec rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSIII, HSHKBIO indices will use today's closing prices for capping. The round-trip trade across the...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

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