Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We continue to be led down the garden path - no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> in March means we remain at 83 members.</li>
<li>Despite having an opportunity to add stocks to the index without increasing turnover, the index committee have done nothing. Which begs the question - what exactly are they waiting for?</li>
<li>Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.8% and the resulting round-trip trade is HK$16.7bn (US$2.15bn).</li>
</ul>


We continue to be led down the garden path - no constituent changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) in March means we remain at 83 members.
Despite having an opportunity to add stocks to the index without increasing turnover, the index committee have done nothing. Which begs the question - what exactly are they waiting for?
Float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.8% and the resulting round-trip trade is HK$16.7bn (US$2.15bn).


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook</li>
<li>China rally continues in the tech sector as investors “discover” the value</li>
<li>More evidence that the USD has peaked while gold continues to be at risk of a stock market correction</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes or outlook
China rally continues in the tech sector as investors “discover” the value
More evidence that the USD has peaked while gold continues to be at risk of a stock market correction


<ul>
<li>There will be 5 changes for the Hang Seng Internet &amp; Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the March rebalance. There is one surprise for us with Synagistics being added.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 6.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.74bn (US$482m). 4 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> is an add to the HSIII, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and HSCI. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will take place in May.</li>
</ul>


There will be 5 changes for the Hang Seng Internet &amp; Information Technology Index (HSIII Index) at the March rebalance. There is one surprise for us with Synagistics being added.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 6.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.74bn (US$482m). 4 stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is an add to the HSIII, Hang Seng TECH Index and HSCI. Inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will take place in May.


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Five Changes with First De-SPAC Listing In

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> stock has rallied bigly over the last month and has gained 55% over that period.</li>
<li>That has led to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba</a>'s weight in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH INDEX</a> and HSIII Index rising above the cap of 8%/12% and passives will sell on 7 March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to sell US$1.2bn of stock due to capping. Shorts have been increasing, and quarterly results will be announced on 20 February.</li>
</ul>



Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) stock has rallied bigly over the last month and has gained 55% over that period.
That has led to Alibaba's weight in the HSI INDEX, HSCEI INDEX, HSTECH INDEX and HSIII Index rising above the cap of 8%/12% and passives will sell on 7 March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to sell US$1.2bn of stock due to capping. Shorts have been increasing, and quarterly results will be announced on 20 February.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> ended on 31 December.</li>
<li>There could be one constituent change in March. With capping changes, that could lead to a one-way turnover of 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.88bn (US$884m).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a> is also a potential inclusion to the HSCI Index in March, though inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only come through in May.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) ended on 31 December.
There could be one constituent change in March. With capping changes, that could lead to a one-way turnover of 2.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.88bn (US$884m).

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is also a potential inclusion to the HSCI Index in March, though inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only come through in May.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: One Constituent Change & US$884m Trade

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng TECH Index aims to represent the 30 largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong which have high business exposure to the Innovative Tech Themes.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Does Anyone Know What the Index Committee Is Thinking?

Another opportunity missed to increase the number of index constituents and decrease the Healthcare underweight with minimal change to index...

Brian Freitas

Overview #16 – And the Beat Goes On

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We follow up on the Chinese bull market, Gold and the USD/JPY

Rikki Malik

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance: Five Changes with First De-SPAC Listing In

There are 5 changes for the HSIII in March. Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 6.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$3.74bn...

Brian Freitas

Alibaba (9988 HK): Results This Week; Over US$1bn Passive Selling in 3 Weeks

The huge rally in Alibaba over the last month will lead to capping in the Hang Seng Indexes in March. We estimate passives need to sell US$1.2bn of...

Brian Freitas

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: One Constituent Change & US$884m Trade

One week to go to the announcement of the index changes. Horizon Robotics is up 63% over the last 5 week and East Buy is down 17%. Time to take...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)