Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The China equity markets have continued to slide and the lower market caps and free float market caps will see a lot of stocks deleted from passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>We currently estimate selling of around US$1.66bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland, in HK and the U.S., and that number could increase as markets continue to underperform.</li>
<li>The potential deletes have dropped a lot over the last 4 months and there has been a marked underperformance versus the headline indices over the last month.</li>
</ul>


The China equity markets have continued to slide and the lower market caps and free float market caps will see a lot of stocks deleted from passive portfolios in February.
We currently estimate selling of around US$1.66bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland, in HK and the U.S., and that number could increase as markets continue to underperform.
The potential deletes have dropped a lot over the last 4 months and there has been a marked underperformance versus the headline indices over the last month.


China: Sliding Market Leads to Passive Selling

Index Rebalance

Flowing Cloud Technology / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 29 December. The changes will be announced on 16 February and become effective after the close 1 March.</li>
<li>We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zx-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36624:1" rel="noopener">Zx Inc</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flowing-cloud-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36461:1" rel="noopener">Flowing Cloud Technology (6610 HK)</a> in the index. There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4paradigm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34465:1" rel="noopener">4Paradigm (6682 HK)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmge-technology-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:451:1" rel="noopener"> CMGE Tech (302 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Capping will result in passives buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 29 December. The changes will be announced on 16 February and become effective after the close 1 March.
We see a high probability of Zx Inc replacing Flowing Cloud Technology (6610 HK) in the index. There is a lower probability of 4Paradigm (6682 HK) replacing  CMGE Tech (302 HK). 
Capping will result in passives buying Meituan (3690 HK) and selling Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), JD.com (9618 HK) and Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). 


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance Preview: ZX Inc Could Replace Flowing Cloud

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is expected to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the March review.</li>
<li>Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.32% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$628m.</li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is near its lows while there has been some recent short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is expected to replace GDS Holdings (9698 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March review.
Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.32% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$628m.
Short interest on Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is near its lows while there has been some recent short covering in GDS Holdings (9698 HK). 


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)

<ul>
<li>It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.</li>
<li>There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> ETFs.</li>
</ul>


It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

<ul>
<li>The December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> will have the largest inflows due to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a> inclusion while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi (1810 HK)</a> will have the largest outflow due to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> capping.</li>
<li>There will be passive selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings (5 HK)</a> for yet another rebalance due to capping of the stock in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The December rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices will use today's closing prices to cap the index constituent weights at 8%. This will lead to large flows.

Li Auto (2015 HK) will have the largest inflows due to the HSI inclusion while Xiaomi (1810 HK) will have the largest outflow due to HSTECH capping.
There will be passive selling in HSBC Holdings (5 HK) for yet another rebalance due to capping of the stock in the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 


HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH: Rebalance Flows Post Capping (Dec 2023)

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng TECH Index aims to represent the 30 largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong which have high business exposure to the Innovative Tech Themes.

Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

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Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX EQUITY)

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HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)

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