IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4paradigm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34465:1" rel="noopener">4Paradigm (1764934D HK)</a>, a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In <strong><em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/4paradigm-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:112776" rel="noopener">4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case</a></em></strong>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on Sage Platform’s rapid slowdown, high customer concentration risk, recent gross margin pressure, FCF burn, rising cash collection cycle and BIS entity list designation. </li>
</ul>



4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.
In 4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on Sage Platform’s rapid slowdown, high customer concentration risk, recent gross margin pressure, FCF burn, rising cash collection cycle and BIS entity list designation. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4paradigm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34465:1" rel="noopener">4Paradigm (1764934D HK)</a>, a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.  </li>
<li>4Paradigm was the largest player by revenue in China’s platform-centric decision-making AI market with a market share of 22.6% in 2022, according to CIC. </li>
<li>The bull case rests on the success in increasing key account customer numbers, net dollar expansion rates, improving revenue visibility, strong growth in application development services and reducing loss margin.</li>
</ul>



4Paradigm (1764934D HK), a leader in enterprise artificial intelligence (AI) in China, is pre-marketing a US$150-200 million HKEx IPO.  
4Paradigm was the largest player by revenue in China’s platform-centric decision-making AI market with a market share of 22.6% in 2022, according to CIC. 
The bull case rests on the success in increasing key account customer numbers, net dollar expansion rates, improving revenue visibility, strong growth in application development services and reducing loss margin.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

<ul>
<li>In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US</li>
<li>Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.</li>
<li>We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.</li>
</ul>


In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US
Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.
We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.


MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

China

Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd develops, manufactures and sells video surveillance products.  The Company manufactures video and audio compression card, network hard disk video recorders, video servers, cameras, network storage, and other digital products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hangzhou Hikvision (002415 CH)

4Paradigm IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on Sage Platform’s rapid slowdown, high customer concentration risk, recent gross margin pressure, FCF burn, rising cash...

Arun George

4Paradigm IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on the success in increasing key customer numbers, net dollar expansion rates, improving visibility, strong growth in...

Arun George

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

$93 on $ACWI has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and it now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun....

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)