HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Compared to competitors, the competitive advantage of Efsubaglutide Alfa is not obvious.The weight loss effect of single target mechanism could be weaker than that of competing dual and triple agonists</li>
<li>Before Innogen filed for listing, some pre-IPO investors chose to transfer the Company's equity they held at a discount, indicating that these investors lack confidence in the Company's prospects.</li>
<li>Under the double pressure of a single pipeline and lagging commercialization, pre-IPO valuation of RMB4.65bn is more like a dangerous bubble game.We shared our views on valuation and post-IPO performance.</li>
</ul>


Compared to competitors, the competitive advantage of Efsubaglutide Alfa is not obvious.The weight loss effect of single target mechanism could be weaker than that of competing dual and triple agonists
Before Innogen filed for listing, some pre-IPO investors chose to transfer the Company's equity they held at a discount, indicating that these investors lack confidence in the Company's prospects.
Under the double pressure of a single pipeline and lagging commercialization, pre-IPO valuation of RMB4.65bn is more like a dangerous bubble game.We shared our views on valuation and post-IPO performance.


Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the company’s product pipeline, its pre-IPO investors, and management.</li>
<li>Our initial view is that the stock will rely heavily on its sales ramp. Yet we are not seeing signs that the company is at full throttle post-NMPA approval.</li>
</ul>


Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
In this note, we look at the company’s product pipeline, its pre-IPO investors, and management.
Our initial view is that the stock will rely heavily on its sales ramp. Yet we are not seeing signs that the company is at full throttle post-NMPA approval.


Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO First Take: Good News Is Also Bad News

<ul>
<li>Innogen’s business, financial condition, operation results and prospects for the next couple of years are substantially dependent on the successful approval and commercialization of Efsubaglutide Alfa, indicating single product risk. </li>
<li>Due to slower R&amp;D progress and fierce competition brought by first movers and generic drugs, commercialization prospects of Efsubaglutide Alfa is highly uncertain, leading to potential lower-than-expected sales performance.</li>
<li>After Series B+ financing, the post-investment valuation of Innogen is already RMB4.65 billion. However, share price of peers has not done well, which makes us cautious about Innogen's IPO prospects.</li>
</ul>


Innogen’s business, financial condition, operation results and prospects for the next couple of years are substantially dependent on the successful approval and commercialization of Efsubaglutide Alfa, indicating single product risk. 
Due to slower R&amp;D progress and fierce competition brought by first movers and generic drugs, commercialization prospects of Efsubaglutide Alfa is highly uncertain, leading to potential lower-than-expected sales performance.
After Series B+ financing, the post-investment valuation of Innogen is already RMB4.65 billion. However, share price of peers has not done well, which makes us cautious about Innogen's IPO prospects.


Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

<ul>
<li>The market's expectations for GLP-1 have changed, and the sales growth of GLP-1 may enter a turning point, which would cast a shadow over the prospects of PegBio's GLP-1 pipelines.</li>
<li>PB-119 would be the first commercialized product for PegBio. However, this market is highly crowded. It’s highly uncertain whether PB-119 can stand out from fierce market competition after its launch.</li>
<li>The post investment valuation has reached RMB4 billion, which is already expensive in our view. Due to poor valuation performance of peers, we are not optimistic about PegBio after IPO.</li>
</ul>


The market's expectations for GLP-1 have changed, and the sales growth of GLP-1 may enter a turning point, which would cast a shadow over the prospects of PegBio's GLP-1 pipelines.
PB-119 would be the first commercialized product for PegBio. However, this market is highly crowded. It’s highly uncertain whether PB-119 can stand out from fierce market competition after its launch.
The post investment valuation has reached RMB4 billion, which is already expensive in our view. Due to poor valuation performance of peers, we are not optimistic about PegBio after IPO.


Pre-IPO PegBio Co., Ltd. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.</li>
<li>Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.</li>
<li>Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time</li>
</ul>


Based on current performance, Jiuyuan has lost growth momentum, showing signs of stagnant growth. The main reason is VBP. So far, Jiouting, Yinuojia, Jifuwei have been included in VBP.
Guyoudao is facing competitive pressure from both domestic and international competitors and could be finally included in VBP. JY29-2 is the next blockbuster product, but the prospects are not clear.
Jiuyuan’s market value is expected to be higher than Qyuns. Future valuation performance will depend on the progress of JY29-2 and the overall market situation of GLP-1s at that time


Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

China

Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering Co., Ltd. operates biotechnology businesses. The Company provides chemical drugs, bacterial and virus vaccines, toxoids, and others in orthopedics, oncology, hematology, and other fields. Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering also produces medical equipment.

Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (2566 HK)

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Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (2566 HK)

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Innogen's crazy IPO debut is due to the resonance of retail investors' enthusiasm/institutional arbitrage/bubble in biotech sector.Reasonable...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO First Take: Good News Is Also Bad News

Innogen, the leading Chinese company in the GLP-1 space, seeks to raise $100 million through Hong Kong listing, with focus on product pipeline and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

Innogen's future success hinges on approval of Efsubaglutide Alfa, but uncertainty in commercialization and competition will impact sales...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO PegBio Co., Ltd. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Market expectations for PegBio's GLP-1 pipelines are changing, casting doubt on valuation. PB-119 faces tough competition in a crowded market. We...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Innogen's crazy IPO debut is due to the resonance of retail investors' enthusiasm/institutional arbitrage/bubble in biotech sector.Reasonable...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO First Take: Good News Is Also Bad News

Innogen, the leading Chinese company in the GLP-1 space, seeks to raise $100 million through Hong Kong listing, with focus on product pipeline and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group- The Good Story of GLP-1 May Not Bring High Valuation

​Innogen's future success hinges on approval of Efsubaglutide Alfa, but uncertainty in commercialization and competition will impact sales...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO PegBio Co., Ltd. (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Market expectations for PegBio's GLP-1 pipelines are changing, casting doubt on valuation. PB-119 faces tough competition in a crowded market. We...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering (PHIP Updates) - The Future Prospects Are Not Optimistic

​Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innogen's future success hinges on approval of Efsubaglutide Alfa, but uncertainty in commercialization and competition will impact sales...

Market expectations for PegBio's GLP-1 pipelines are changing, casting doubt on valuation. PB-119 faces tough competition in a crowded market. We...

Jiuyuan's growth momentum is stalling due to VBP. Guyoudao and JY29-2 face competition and uncertainty. Market value may surpass Qyuns. Future...